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Win rate does not matter. How risk is calculated for potential reward is where the money is made. A wise man once said: do you want to be right? Or do you want to make money?

🇩🇪 Germany just did something that would’ve sounded absurd a few years ago: restrict travel for men aged 17–45 in the name of military readiness. Let that sink in. In a country where militarism is treated like a historical trauma, carefully contained, politically radioactive, and socially taboo, Berlin is now quietly laying the groundwork for something that looks a lot like pre-mobilization. For decades, Germany has been the anti-military power inside NATO. It outsourced hard power to the U.S, leaned on diplomacy, and kept its Bundeswehr underfunded and, frankly, underprepared. That was the deal. Economic giant, military minimalist. Now that deal is breaking. Russia’s war in Ukraine didn’t just redraw borders, it rewired Europe’s threat perception. And Germany, the continent’s economic engine, suddenly looks dangerously exposed. So Berlin is doing what it swore it wouldn’t: rebuilding the machinery of war readiness. Travel restrictions for military-age men are about control. They ensure that, if things escalate, the state knows where its manpower is, and can keep it there. It signals that policymakers are no longer asking if a larger conflict could happen in Europe…they’re asking how fast they could respond when it does. And you don’t introduce policies like this unless you think you might actually need them. Source: Berliner Zeitung