Pa Con

@waitbutwhy Pressing red is killing people who press blue. There will be a non-zero amount of people who press blue. To save human lives you should press blue, despite the inherent risk to yourself. The true no loss outcome is over 50% blue, red there is near guaranteed loses.

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

@amitisinvesting Why are supply side commodity changes factors in inflation, seems like it’s measuring something other than inflation from the feds standpoint

Markets are in such a weird space currently right now. Every single day there are two types of headlines: one that implies the war will end soon and oil prices should go down and then one that implies the exact opposite. CPI was okay this week but if oil, which is now at $96, continues to stay here…inflation just isn’t going to get better. Which means we aren’t going to easily get rate cuts. We now only have 1 cut projected for 2026. The S&P is officially down 3% YTD and this week has lost that crucial $6700 level. Individual sectors like Fintech and SaaS have just been completely left as narratives have ruined those names, whether it’s about AI or private credit. However, individual growth stocks have meaningfully corrected from the highs. Some down 50%. Mag 7 multiples ex Tesla/Apple continue to be reasonable and every time they breakout…some headline brings them down, which is what we saw with $META. I think this year so far has been characterized in 3 ways: 1. Finding a deeply important sector/theme and going heavy into that like drones/space/energy/etc, but timing is important as even those sectors have seen big pullbacks. 2. Accepting this year is consolidation (which is better than bearish) and just buying your favorite names at discounts every week to add to the portfolio. 3. Yielding volatility by running covered calls and playing ranges within stocks as many continue to be within a range which helps when running calls, something that has been one of my core strategies this year and is also what I thought might happen as we are in year 4 of the bull market and these names might just need to consolidate. Going net short has not really worked unless you picked the right stocks, S&P down 3% isn’t really the best environment for shorting since everyone is so positioned for the crash that the premiums on puts/borrowing fees aren’t as attractive when everyone expects a major move down. A hard market to navigate but still opportunity exists within it…

@rampagepoker 67, multiple combos, and a2d are all natural bluffs on the flop

Nearly $40,000 poker hand

@VJNCapital @StockMKTNewz You don’t get to vote with your shares if you do that

@StockMKTNewz So many companies you could just buy the index and relax instead

George Soros’ portfolio visualized

@charliebilello The VIG (or the rake of the books) is only 5% on average with all bets I would guess. So total losses were probably closer to 7b, which would be a better metric for what was spent than what you have which is what was wagered

Americans bet over $148 billion on sports last year, which is more than they spent on movies, books, concerts and sports tickets - combined.

@Polymarket It’s because you can buy options on ibit with an underlying price of 62 at the 92 strike for December 31 for .69. IBIT is currently trading at $61. if BTC hits 200k ibit would be trading around 115. Option ending value = 23, 30x+ return which is > your 20x.

BREAKING: It’s more likely aliens are confirmed this year (6% chance) than Bitcoin hitting $200k (5% chance).

@MoonDevOnYT What time frame do you believe it make traders irrelevant on? 1 hour trades, 1 day trades, 1 month, 1 year?

openai just made traders irrelevant and its only year 2