Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it:
1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck.
The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely:
Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet.
If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years.
As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source.
As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production.
But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years.
You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers.
That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics.
It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it.
But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power.
Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs.
2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes.
You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures.
That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over.
There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers.
If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures.
All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers.
If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you?
Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players.
3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this:
$SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027.
It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027.
$AEHR which volume ramps after qualification.
$LPK that volume ramps after qualification.
This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently.
As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year):
$LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components.
This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO:
People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections.
This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company.
Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward.
Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion.
It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs.
I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14.
Now it's $140
I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30".
Now it's $170
I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45.
Now it's $170.
I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year.
And now I'm long on $SIVE.
