Andrew England retweetledi
On Saudi-UAE tensions:
Me:
“For a few weeks the [Saudi-UAE] tensions were more suppressed because the war was the focus. But if anything, the war has supercharged these tensions,” said Emile Hokayem at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“It’s more likely than not that Gulf unity will be eroded rather than strengthened” by the conflict, Hokayem said.
“The priority for the UAE is to double down on the US and Israel, while the Saudis worry about an unrestrained Israel and think that a regional construct is needed to contain, manage and possibly integrate Iran,” Hokayem said.
“There is a massive, perverse irony in this war in that the three belligerents — the US, Israel and Iran — can all make a claim of some strategic success here or there,” Hokayem said. “But the net strategic losers are the Gulf states, which did not want to initiate or fight this war.”
@FirasMaksad:
“It’s not only competition in places like Yemen and Sudan and the Horn of Africa, it’s just fundamentally a different approach to the dynamics of the region, and the way of dealing with Iran and Israel,” Maksad said.
“The UAE has positioned itself as the tip of the spear against Iran, while Saudi Arabia is maintaining an open channel to Tehran.”
“And Abu Dhabi is bandwagoning on Israeli power, whereas Riyadh and other regional heavyweights are balancing against it.”
English
