Cory Kowitz

A busy stretch and a pain-in-the-you-know-what forecast. For multiple days, we'll be dealing with a juiced-up atmosphere BUT weak triggers. That's especially true in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Confidence is greatest in some storms Monday/Tuesday across the Corn Belt and Upper Midwest. These will accompany a lifting warm front. A couple tornadoes are possible, along with hail and maybe a few wind gusts. But across the central/southern Plains, we have an impressive "parameter space" but not much "forcing." In other words, we have the storm fuel (instability) AND we have the spin (shear). But will storms form? A cap, or lid of hot, dry air a mile above the ground, will work to suppress thunderstorm development by preventing surface air to rise. In MOST spots, this will win out. However, it's possible (especially Sunday/Monday) that smaller-scale features help to kick up isolated supercells. Any isolated supercells would be able to take advantage of a higher-end environment and produce significant severe weather, including baseball hail, tornadoes and damaging gusts. 90% of the area won't see much. 10% of the area could see significant impacts. These "conditional" all-or-nothing risks are difficult to communicate. Legitimately, it will be mostly sunny with a slight chance of tornadoes. Weather models also struggle to handle these sorts of events. We won't be able to sniff out "mesoscale" details (tiny smaller-scale forcing mechanisms) until the night before. Stay tuned!

A multi-day severe weather outbreak, with some tornadoes, begins Saturday. If you find this graphic overwhelming, so do we... there's just a TON to plot/discuss. These outlook zones come directly from NOAA/SPC. Saturday is an appetizer day as a dryline sharpens in West Texas. A jet stream dip/disturbance starts to approach. A couple supercells with egg-sized hail are possible. They'll congeal into a windy line overnight. Sunday the atmosphere resets, becoming warm and humid once again and allowing additional supercells to form. Hail up to apple size is possible, in addition to a tornado threat. Monday the risk area expands all the way up to the northern Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, as well as large hail, are likely. Some of the supercells may be intense, especially in Kansas. On Tuesday, a severe weather outbreak is possible as a potent jet stream dip (trough) swings overhead quickly. That will foster significant ascent (rising motion), resulting in scattered to numerous severe storms. Given the wind dynamics at play, tornadoes are likely to accompany the most severe storms. Wednesday, storms continue into the Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. Damaging gusts are likely, but we can't rule out some large hail or tornado risk.