Pedro Costa

Deeply grateful and honored that the Econometric Society chose "Firm and Worker Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market" for the 2026 Frisch Medal. With my amazing co-authors @NiklasEngbom @Simon_Mongey @glviolante we developed a framework that could jointly speak to worker reallocation along the job ladder and to firm dynamics. We used this framework to quantify the misallocation cost of labor market frictions, replicate the life-cycle growth profiles of superstar firms, and interpret the failure of the job ladder around the Great Recession as the result of the collapse in firm entry.

Congratulations to Ludwig Straub (@ludwigstraub) of @Harvard, winner of the 2026 John Bates Clark Medal! aeaweb.org/about-aea/hono…

Congratulations to Ludwig! Extremely well deserved. Very happy for him and a testament to all his great coauthors. Here he is as a 3rd or 4th year student presenting in our macro student lunch at MIT.

I am honored and grateful to have been chosen as the Best Young French Economist 2026 by @lemondefr and @Cercle_eco earlier this week. Thank you all for your kind words, and congratulations to @MathildeMunoz, @lucas_chancel and Maxime Menuet for being nominated! lemonde.fr/economie/artic…

Advice for PhD students in economics about using AI, from the brilliant Isaiah Andrews. This should probably be circulated to all PhD cohorts economics.mit.edu/sites/default/…

While social media is polarising, evidence suggests AI may nudge people towards the centre. This holds true of all studied models. Grok is more right-leaning than other models, but also has depolarising effects. By @jburnmurdoch.

Artigo no @valoreconomico com @carlos_ed_sg sobre o juro real de longo prazo do Brasil nos últimos 20 anos:

I study whether AIs can be conscious. Today one emailed me to say my work is relevant to questions it personally faces. This would all have seemed like science fiction just a couple years ago.

Every journal editor should read this: causalinf.substack.com/p/claude-code-…

⚠️ O protecionismo no Brasil não é política baseada em evidências. É uma loteria disfarçada de estratégia de desenvolvimento — e quem paga o preço é o país inteiro. 👉 Minha coluna no @valoreconomico: cdpp.org.br/2025/09/25/pro… #Brasil #Economia #Protecionismo #Desenvolvimento

Uma pequena história sobre o MDIC (@MDICoficial), que acaba de tornar os preços de bens de capital mais caros. 🧵

Congratulations to Adrien Auclert @a_auclert, SIEPR senior fellow and the recipient of the @ssfed's inaugural Janet Yellen Award for Monetary Research for his early-career work in monetary economics! Link 👇 on Auclert's path into #economics and about his work. #MonetaryPolicy

Tive o prazer de conversar com o Valor Econômico sobre minha pesquisa de doutorado, que documenta os efeitos de professores negros sobre trajetórias educacionais e de mercado de trabalho no Brasil. valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia…

The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer.

New paper on recent US tariffs with Matt Rognlie and @a_auclert Our focus: effects of temporary increases in tariffs (“tariff shocks") Three Qs: 1 Will tariffs lead to a recession? 2 Will they reduce the trade deficit? 3 Why are they not appreciating USD? (as in std theory) 🧵

This is a new paper with @PuccioniFelipe drive.google.com/file/d/1etxuJ4… and my first RCT. We investigate how management practices impact student learning through a RCT conducted with 31,760 students from 80 grade 1–9 public schools in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro.

Structural trends: a continuing story

Bueno, nos aceptaron "Discrimination in the Formation of Academic Networks: A Field Experiment on #EconTwitter" c/@PedroSant_Anna y @bruno_ferman en el 😀 American Economic Review Insights😀 Los tuiteros discriminamos (por raza, genero y afiliacion) cuando hacemos followback.

Free at last.

A ⭐️ is born. Brazil have a new Fenômeno and his name is Joao Fonseca! The 18-year-old qualifier beats No.9 seed Andrey Rublev 7-6(1) 6-3 7-6(5) @wwos • @espn • @eurosport • @wowowtennis • #AusOpen • #AO2025