Koen Hoorelbeke

Yesterday's options flow (19 mar) markets: bearish mag7: hedging crypto: unclear biotech: hedging metals: unclear energy: bearish rates: bullish risk-off: unclear semis: bearish financials: hedging Markets Bearish tone in confirmed opening flow on 19 Mar: QQQ and IWM saw fresh downside positioning into 20 Mar expiry, while TSLA, META, ORCL and MSTR all printed heavy put opening. SPY notional was huge, but the late deep-ITM call flow looked mixed, not clean bullish risk. #markets Mag7 Mag7 options flow turned defensive into the close. TSLA, META, MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, NVDA and GOOGL all saw confirmed-opening put demand, mostly deep ITM and same-day. This looked less like lotto convexity and more like protection-first positioning. #Mag7 #hedging Crypto Crypto options flow looked big, but not clean. MSTR and COIN were dominated by massive confirmed-opening deep-ITM put structures, with both long and short legs showing up. Add some upside call buying in IREN/MSTR and the net read stays mixed, not outright bearish. #crypto Biotech Biotech ETF flow skewed defensive into the close: a huge XLV Apr 155 put buy stood out, while XBI saw opening upside/downside structures that looked more like volatility buying than outright conviction. Net read: protection and event-style optionality, not clean risk-on. #biotech #XLV Metals Metals flow looked heavy on the surface, but the biggest confirmed-opening prints were not clean one-way downside bets. Deep ITM put blocks dominated GLD, GDX, WPM and NEM into Friday expiry, with both put buying and put selling showing up. Read: stressed positioning, but not a simple crash call. #gold #miners Energy Energy flow leaned bearish on 19 Mar: XOP and XLE saw heavy confirmed-opening put demand, while bullish call buying in COP, SLB, XOM and DVN looked more selective than sector-wide. Sector hedge first, stock-picking second. #energy Rates Rates ETF flow leaned bullish into the close. TLT dominated with repeated confirmed-opening call buying in Apr and Jul, while IEF saw a sizeable Jun upside call print. Some HYG downside protection stayed active, but net new risk tilted toward duration upside. #rates #TLT Risk-off Risk-off ETF flow leaned defensive, but not cleanly enough to call outright bearish. XLV saw fresh April 155 puts and a May combo tied to 150 calls/140 puts, while XLP printed fresh May 79/76 puts. Thin confirmed-opening breadth keeps conviction low. #XLV Semis Semis flow turned decisively defensive into the close. Confirmed-opening put activity dominated in $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $TSM and $QCOM, with a lot of size packed into 20 Mar expiry. Read: heavy downside protection with some package noise, but net tone still bearish. #semis #NVDA Financials Financials saw heavy same-day downside protection after the March Fed, with JPM, V, GS, BRK.B, MA and WFC dominated by confirmed-opening put structures. Big flow, but much of it paired with short lower strikes, so this looked more like aggressive hedging than pure crash chasing. #financials #Fed

@Mr_Derivatives $myaccount down?

$VIX down $USO down $SPY down $GLD down $BTC down $UUP down Am I missing anything?

Bottom line: Triple witching is a market structure event Not a macro story. If you ignore positioning, gamma, and flows… You’re trading blind on one of the most mechanically driven days of the quarter.

Triple witching is one of the most important (and misunderstood) days in markets. It’s not just “expiry day.” It’s when stock options, index options, and index futures all expire at once. That concentration of risk can move markets more than most macro headlines.

What to watch (practical lens): • Key strikes (where OI is concentrated) • Index levels near expiry • Volume spikes into the close • Futures positioning into Monday This is structure-driven, not news-driven.

Why Monday can also be volatile: • New positioning replaces expired exposure • Dealers rebuild hedges from scratch • Institutional flows continue (not everything finishes Friday) • Gaps occur as liquidity resets → Monday often reflects the aftershock

But here’s what many miss: The impact doesn’t stop on Friday.

Why volatility spikes today Because everything converges: • Expiry flows • Hedging flows • Rebalancing • Liquidity pockets around key strikes It’s a perfect setup for intraday dislocations and sharp reversals

You also have institutional flows Funds and asset managers: • Roll futures • Rebalance portfolios • Adjust exposure after expiry These are not optional trades — they must happen. That creates mechanical buying/selling pressure.

Now add gamma effects Near large option strikes (“pin levels”), small price moves can trigger large hedging flows. If dealers are: • Long gamma → stabilising effect • Short gamma → volatility accelerates Triple witching can flip that balance fast.

The key driver: dealer hedging Market makers don’t take directional bets — they hedge. When large option positions expire, their hedges must be adjusted quickly. That can mean: • Buying into strength • Selling into weakness → amplifying moves

Why does it matter? Because trillions in notional exposure need to be: • Closed • Rolled • Hedged • Rebalanced And all of that often happens in a very short time window.

SOFR update (what changed this month): The US SOFR forward curve has shifted sharply higher and flattened over the past few weeks. Markets are now pricing fewer and later Fed rate cuts compared to late February. The move reflects a repricing driven by persistent inflation risks—helped by the recent energy shock—and rising long-end yields. In short, the “easy easing” narrative has been pushed out.

A structured way to buy IWDA at a lower price using options social.saxo/pto6j7i via @saxobank #MSCI #World #ETF

Market Quick Take - 20 March 2026 social.saxo/8qlssyd via @saxobank #equities #volatility #crypto #fixedincome #currencies #macro #oil #bonds #iran #triplewitching

Financials flow turned sharply defensive on 18 Mar. Confirmed opening risk was dominated by massive deep-ITM put buying in $V, $JPM, $BLK, $MA and $GS into 20 Mar expiry, with $XLF adding longer-dated protection. The tape looked like hedge-first positioning. #options #financials

Yesterday's options flow (18 mar) markets: bearish mag7: bearish crypto: bearish biotech: hedging metals: hedging energy: accumulation rates: bearish risk-off: bearish semis: bearish financials: bearish

Semis flow turned sharply defensive into the close. Confirmed-opening put activity dominated in AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO and SMH, with several trades looking like near-dated hedge structures into Fed/expiry risk. MU was more mixed, but the sector tape leaned bearish. #options

Risk-off ETFs saw fresh downside opening flow on 18 Mar, not fresh safety demand. A huge XLU May put package dominated, with added XLP and XLV put buying further out the curve. Small XLV call buying was not enough to change the tone. #optionsflow #ETF #riskoff

Rates ETF flow skewed defensive into the 18 Mar Fed day. Biggest fresh risk sat in HYG downside puts, while TLT showed mixed duration positioning with upside calls and some near-term put demand. Credit looked more fragile than Treasuries. #options #rates #Fed

Energy options leaned toward protected accumulation, not broad risk-on. Massive deep-ITM call opening in CVX and XOM stood out, but XOP/XLE plus SLB and EQT still saw meaningful put demand. Majors strong, sector tape still hedged. #options #energy #oil