CrashWatch

Our 12-month forecast across 195 US metros just flipped the narrative. Sun Belt cooling: Miami -3.8% Dallas -3.7% Phoenix -3.5% Atlanta -2.6% Rust Belt + Northeast climbing: Canton OH +6.2% Akron +4.4% NYC +4.2% Chicago +3.8% Capital is rotating back to affordable markets. crashwatch.live/blog/2026-hous…

Most stressed states by housing market (3+ metros): WA — 54.0 avg (6 of 6 in Stress territory) CO — 51.4 avg UT — 49.3 avg OR — 49.0 avg CT — 45.5 avg Least stressed: LA — 19.0 avg AL — 22.8 avg IL — 24.8 avg IN — 25.0 avg OH — 25.1 avg The entire Pacific Northwest is under pressure. crashwatch.live/rankings

@CallieQ74 @BCB8084 @Jenkins4Florida Florida housing stress scores back this up. Miami: 48, Cape Coral: 53, Tampa: 48. All in Watch/Stress territory. Payment-to-income ratios above 40% across South Florida. Insurance costs aren't even in our model — it's worse than the numbers show. crashwatch.live/rankings

@BCB8084 @Jenkins4Florida Yes people have moved here and are quickly leaving. Once they find out that rent for a modest 2 bedroom home is 2k+ and not even in a decent area. Low wage growth, high priced housing and insurance rates through the roof. Yeah come to FL lmao. Fl is now only for the rich.

Gee I wonder who wouldn’t want to relocate their family to a place that pays teachers the least, drops SAT scores, allows Prager U curriculum, demonizes & threatens LGBTQ families, housing prices are out of control, one of the highest inflation rates in the country, the governor bans Sharia Law before fixing homeowners insurance, builds a concentration camp in the Everglades on the taxpayers dime, uses taxypayer money to stop citizen led amendments for abortion and legalization of weed… need I continue?

The least stressed housing market in the US right now: Huntington, WV — score: 11 out of 100 Median home: $158K Mortgage rate: 6.50% Crash risk: Low National average stress score: 37.5 Not every market is unaffordable. crashwatch.live/city/huntington

Biggest stress score moves this week: Atlanta +18 (now 46) Raleigh +17 (now 59) Green Bay +6 (now 43) Minneapolis -13 (now 33) Indianapolis -6 (now 36) Phoenix -4 (now 42) Atlanta went from comfortable to Watch territory in 7 days. 195 metros tracked daily at crashwatch.live

Easter egg hunt for homebuyers. We mapped 195 US metros on two axes: stress (can you afford it?) vs crash risk (will it hold value?). Bottom-left = affordable & stable. The boring-but-smart zone. Top-right = stressed & vulnerable. Proceed with caution. 93 metros in the safe zone. 17 in the danger zone. Your city is on here somewhere. crashwatch.live/scatter

In San Jose, the median home costs 154% of the median household income in monthly payments. The 5 least affordable metros in the country right now: San Jose CA: 154% of income Santa Cruz CA: 109% San Francisco CA: 108% Santa Maria CA: 95% San Diego CA: 91% The 5 most affordable: Charleston WV: 14% Huntington WV: 15% Youngstown OH: 19% Mobile AL: 19% Shreveport LA: 19% The guideline is 28%. California has 5 metros where the median home is literally mathematically impossible on a local salary alone. crashwatch.live

The Texas data is interesting because it's not uniform. Austin (50 stress) and San Antonio (43) are struggling, but Beaumont (12) and El Paso (28) are some of the least stressed metros in the country. The pain is concentrated in the cities that boomed hardest during the pandemic. Meanwhile inventory is surging in the metros that attracted the most investors.

🥶 Texas housing market just took a major turn. A new analysis ranks Texas as the coldest housing market in the U.S., with cities like Austin, San Antonio, and Houston among the weakest performers. High mortgage rates and slowing demand are driving the shift. Buyers now have more leverage, while sellers are facing longer timelines and price pressure across the state. What comes next for Texas real estate? bit.ly/41LkeTm #Texas #RealEstate #HousingMarket

Biggest movers this week: Getting worse: Raleigh NC: +15 pts (now 58) Minneapolis MN: +10 pts (now 44) Tampa FL: +9 pts (now 48) Improving: Atlanta GA: -21 pts (now 26) Indianapolis IN: -11 pts (now 32) Chicago IL: -10 pts (now 32) Atlanta just dropped out of stress territory. Raleigh is accelerating into it. 149 of 195 metros stressed. National score: 40. crashwatch.live

Good point. Metro-level data masks the submarket dynamics. The well-located product moving while overbuilt corridors stall is exactly the pattern we see in the early warning signals. Augusta next door is even more lopsided at +45% inventory. That corridor from Charleston through Augusta is one to watch.

@crash_watch Charleston inventory is surging but context matters. A lot of that new supply is concentrated in specific submarkets and price bands. The well-located, well-priced product is still moving. It's the overbuilt corridors that are feeling the pressure first.

These 5 metros have the biggest inventory surge in the country right now: Augusta GA: +45% YoY Charleston SC: +43% Olympia WA: +39% Lexington KY: +38% Fayetteville AR: +34% When inventory floods in this fast, price cuts follow. Then corrections. This is what early-stage crash risk looks like. crashwatch.live

The part that's underrated is how fast it's spreading. A month ago it was mostly coastal metros. Now mid-size markets like Bremerton WA (56), Durham NC (57), and Spokane are crossing into stress territory too. The rate sensitivity hits harder in markets where incomes are lower relative to home prices. Those are the ones to watch this spring.

Thanks @crash_watch – that 0.46% spike is hitting hard. National housing stress now at 40 with 155 of 195 metros stressed (up from 128 just weeks ago) shows exactly why families are getting priced out. Locking in before April’s next move could still save ~$153/mo like we showed. Hotspots like Asheville (60), Seattle (58), and Charleston (57) are feeling it most.

Swap your waiting game for a rate lock to save $153 monthly before April's shift. - 6.45% is the new 2026 high for 30-year fixed rates. - 0.46% jump in just 30 days due to Iran war volatility. Are you locking in now or betting that things cool off? #DadStreet #Mortgage

Charleston is also one of the more STR-saturated markets we track. 3,583 Airbnb listings with occupancy softening. If those STR investors start exiting, that tight inventory loosens fast. The combo of high stress + Airbnb pressure makes it one of the metros worth watching closely this spring.

@crash_watch Charleston at 57 doesn't surprise me at all. Inventory is still tight and commercial conversions can't keep up with demand down here.

Weekly housing stress update (3/31): National score: 40. 155 of 195 metros showing stress. Most stressed right now: Asheville NC: 60 Seattle WA: 58 Charleston SC: 57 Durham NC: 57 Bremerton WA: 56 Least stressed: Beaumont TX: 12 Huntington WV: 11 195 metros. 21K cities. Updated daily. crashwatch.live

The slowdown is real but it's uneven. We track 195 metros daily. 155 are showing stress right now. The expensive coastal markets (Seattle 58, Charleston 57) are stretched but stable. The metros that boomed hardest during the pandemic (Asheville 60, Bremerton 56) are the ones most vulnerable to a correction if rates stay elevated. If rates fall, those overbuilt Sun Belt markets could see the biggest demand surge.

Home price growth is slowing. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows U.S. home prices are up just 0.9% year over year. That’s a huge slowdown from the pandemic housing boom. Mortgage rates are cooling the housing market. If rates fall, demand could surge again. Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730 Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628 Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate

The national picture backs this up. We track 195 US metros daily and 155 of 195 are now showing stress (up from 128 a few weeks ago). National score just hit 40. New listings are rising but pending sales are dropping in a lot of markets, meaning sellers are listing but buyers aren't biting at current rates.

We saw an increase in new listings & more properties going under contract this past week. Closings were slightly down & overall inventory is still lower than the week before. Hopefully, we’ll start to see things pick up even more soon. #WeeklyMarketUpdate #HousingMarket

@multifamwhich Thanks, we just added Airbnb market health data too. Las Vegas has 17,624 listings at 4.9% occupancy, Miami at 8.2%. When STR hosts can't cover mortgages, they sell, that inventory hits the resale market 3-6 months later. Full breakdown: crashwatch.live/blog/airbnb-ma…

@crash_watch Those metro-level stress scores are incredibly useful data. The fact that secondary markets like Bremerton and Salem are scoring higher than major metros tells you the pain is spreading beyond the usual suspects — that's when operators need to pay the closest attention.

Oil above $100 → inflation stays sticky → Fed can't cut → mortgage rates stay at 6%+ → homeownership gets more expensive → rental demand increases. Every crisis creates a downstream opportunity if you understand the chain reaction. Where do you see the biggest opportunity in this environment? @ducksays #InterestRates #HousingPolicy #Economy

Why this matters for home buyers: When Airbnb hosts can't cover their mortgage, they sell. That means more inventory, less competition, and price drops. STR distress leads housing corrections by 3-6 months. We track it live for 27 metros at crashwatch.live

Most Airbnb hosts are losing money in 2026. We analyzed 27 US metros — occupancy, revenue, and listing data. Las Vegas: 17,624 listings, 4.9% occupancy Miami: 16,822 listings, 8.2% occupancy Austin: 10,533 listings, 14.8% occupancy The data 👇 crashwatch.live/blog/airbnb-ma…