Industrial Lad

The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen. Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation). Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there. Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI. As a result, 1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb. Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more. 2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future). Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire" 3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed. Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies. 4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either. No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money." I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here. Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success". Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

Divorce exists. Big house with a year is top 10% thing unless out in the countryside

Largest metros in the US without a Big 4 sports team: 12. Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (pop. 4.8M) 25. Austin, TX (2.6M) 37. Virginia Beach, VA (1.8M) 39. Providence, RI (1.7M) 43. Louisville, KY-IN (1.4M) 44. Richmond, VA (1.4M) 47. Fresno, CA (1.2M) 48. Birmingham, AL (1.2M)

Americans 🇺🇸 don’t really understand this… The top 1% in LATAM/Asia live extremely well. Drivers, house staff, elite private schools, global travel, family businesses with generational wealth. Yet Americans are told they won the lottery by being born in the USA. I don’t know… If I had the choice… being born rich in Mexico or the Philippines might be the better deal.

My daughter (Northwestern Junior) this AM: "Yeah most people have just given up because there are literally no jobs." I'm convinced that the large number of prominent people who post on X about how AI isn't affecting jobs for college kids have never spoken to a college kid.

I met with an early 30s real estate investor a few weeks ago for coffee. Probably has a $4 million net worth. Combined with his real estate they make about $500,000 annually. Owns 50 units by himself. No investors. Still works a full-time job. Wife still works. Good jobs. Couple young kids. And he thinks he’s behind. Thinks he needs to go bigger. Compares to big firms. Worries he not going fast enough. Asked me if I thought he should quit his job and “go all-in”. Here’s what I told him: 1) You’ve already won. You are crushing it. Take a minute to reflect on how unbelievable your life is. On track to a $10-20M+ net worth by 50 on cruise control. 2) Don’t get addicted to growth - remember the real estate is supposed to serve you. 3) Bigger isn’t necessarily better. Don’t romanticize bigger firms. There are trade offs to scaling. To taking investors. To taking on more debt. It isn’t all sunshine and lollipops. 4) Think long and hard about what you want. If you want to keep scaling up, recruit a manager to start. Highest and best use for him is sourcing good deals, not collecting rent. 5) Said if I were him, I wouldn’t leave a high income, low intensity job unless I had a very clear plan for what I wanted. That’s major security. Think through your goals intensely. Make sure the trade offs are worth it. No matter what he does, he’s made it. I’m happy for him. And to do so while working a job in his early 30s? Just amazing work.