Ogzu Erkna

73 posts

Ogzu Erkna

Ogzu Erkna

@crecent2

Jacobabad Katılım Temmuz 2011
65 Takip Edilen44 Takipçiler
Oguz Erkan
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan·
$MSFT is the cheapest mega-cap stock now. The stock is down by 20% from its highs last year despite accelerating cloud business and sustained growth in software. It can easily double from here over the next few years. Here is my $MSFT investment thesis: 🧵
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Oguz Erkan
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan·
Do you want to become a better investor? I share all my insights in my weekly newsletter. Join 23,000+ readers to become a better investor. You will also get a free e-book when you join 👇 capitalist-letters.com
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Oguz Erkan
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan·
10/ In total, we have: - Cloud business: $1.7 trillion - Software: $1.5 trillion - Other: $0.3 trillion - Total: $3.6 trillion Yet, the whole company is valued at $3 trillion today, implying almost a 20% discount to the fair value. It's rare to find an exceptional business like $MSFT at a substantial discounts as this one. I am a buyer.
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Oguz Erkan
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan·
This is why $MSFT is the top mega-cap pick right now: Cash flows of hyperscalers will hit the bottom next year and they’ll go negative except for $MSFT and $GOOG. $GOOG, however, has issued around $90 billion debt to fund the AI buildout, while $MSFT has issued no debt so far. Plus, $GOOG is seriously competing in the model business, which will remain a black hole for years while almost all of $MSFT’s compute is sold to customers for training and inference workloads, making margins from day 1. It’s also the cheaper than $GOOG as it trades at 20x forward earnings versus 27x for $GOOG. No brainer here.
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Barchart@Barchart

Hyperscaler Free Cash flow will turn negative by next year 🚨 🚨

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Ogzu Erkna
Ogzu Erkna@crecent2·
Many of my followers have already joined our WhatsApp group.✅ Get free real-time trading alerts, investment strategies, and market forecast analysis . Join the group👇👇👇👇 ➡️ Send “Join” to this WhatsApp number +16232128978 WhatsApp link👉🔗api.whatsapp.com/send?phone=162…
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Ogzu Erkna
Ogzu Erkna@crecent2·
My internal plan is as follows ⬇️
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Oguz Erkan
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan·
Semiconductor P/Es are lower now compared to the start of the year. Some people think it’s a buying opportunity. I don’t think so. Historically, semiconductor P/Es peak at the same time with margins, and start declining a bit before the margins, which signals loosening demand. This doesn’t mean demand will collapse, but we won’t likely get aggressive upside revisions to estimates. Completely cutting semiconductor exposure isn’t the best thing to do as the demand is closely connected to breakthroughs in AI models. At any moment, we can have a breakthrough that sends the demand vertical. I think the best strategy is owning the cheapest and strongest one, $NVDA, rather than chasing those trading at 25x forward sales.
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matthew sigel, recovering CFA@matthew_sigel

Semiconductor stocks are now cheaper (on PE) than at start of the year.

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Oguz Erkan
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan·
Remember $AMZN CEO said “if you are building a big inference business and want decent margings, not having your custom chips is a disadvantage.” This is obvious now as Anthropic is also making its own chips. Total cost of ownership for inference is significantly lower in ASICs.
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Jukan@jukan05

KOREAN LOCAL MEDIA: SAMSUNG FOUNDRY HAS SECURED ANTHROPIC AS A FOUNDRY CUSTOMER AN INDUSTRY SOURCE CLOSE TO SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS SAID, “SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS’ FOUNDRY DIVISION HAS AGREED TO MANUFACTURE ANTHROPIC’S CUSTOM AI CHIPS.”

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Oguz Erkan
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan·
Though inference workloads increasingly shift to ASICs, $NVDA bull thesis is still intact. No sign of its training dominance loosening on the horizon and training workloads will still keep growing, just at a slower pace than inference. $NVDA will do just fine.
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Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan

Remember $AMZN CEO said “if you are building a big inference business and want decent margings, not having your custom chips is a disadvantage.” This is obvious now as Anthropic is also making its own chips. Total cost of ownership for inference is significantly lower in ASICs.

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Ogzu Erkna
Ogzu Erkna@crecent2·
Many of my followers have already joined our WhatsApp group.! Get free real-time trading alerts, investment strategies, and market forecast analysis. Join the group 👇 ➡️ Send “Join” to this WhatsApp number +16232128978 WhatsApp link👉🔗wa.me/16232128978/?t…
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Ogzu Erkna
Ogzu Erkna@crecent2·
My internal plan is as follows ⬇️
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