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Kev
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Kev
@cryptRunner97
Detached enough to see and aware enough to understand
USA Katılım Eylül 2014
48 Takip Edilen465 Takipçiler
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The Energy sector has been pinned underneath the weight of its own all-time highs since 2014.
That changed when $XLE broke out above 50.00 for the first time ever earlier this year.
Leading higher late last year was Exxon Mobil $XOM - the most liquid leader in the sector.
Many assume the Energy trade is the product of a rotation into a more defensive positioning due to Software and AI trouble.. and are either taking short-term positions or foregoing participating entirely.
Massive bases like we see in XLE don't resolve higher after decades of pent up volatility only to roll back over a couple of weeks later.
This is a secular breakout -- a change in the opinion of the future of the Energy trade. And financial institutions are speaking their opinions with their money.
It's likely that this trade continues to work for months, quarters, or years. Not days or weeks.
I opened a new position today in the sector. And I plan on continuing to position myself into the strongest candidates within Energy for the foreseeable future.
TTI the trade is in your inbox.

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Be honest with yourself:
You know every pattern.
You can spot divergences in your sleep.
Your chart game is flawless.
So why are you still losing money?
Because technicals don't make you money.
Execution does.
And execution means:
- Not revenge trading after a loss
- Taking profits when you said you would
- Cutting losses before they become disasters
- Sitting on your hands when there's no setup
You already know how to read charts.
Now learn how to read yourself.
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Market Correction Indicator: AAII Bulls:Bears (Monthly): Not just a crash indicator but also a correction indicator, this chart shows that overall declining bullish sentiment is a normal artifact as a market grinds higher and a bull gets longer in the tooth - but what it reveals is that just before a significant pullback, that last move has a signature in the Bull/Bear ratio as bearish sentiment troughs and then turns up as they capitulate and grudgingly turn bullish...that final pop can be seen here in 2007, 2015, 2020, and 2022. It doesn't discriminate between pullbacks and crashes, so in other words, humans gonna human.
As evidenced in the chart, this instance of divergence shown in the indicator has gone on a bit longer than most recent previous editions, with the exception of the financial crisis in 2008 where we`re just about tied in length. At some point, either $SPX or AAII will give way...and at that point, we`ll see if history is still our guide (spoiler: it is).

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Momentum's picking up in the short term, but the bigger picture still isn't showing a real trend reversal.
This recent bump looks more like a short-squeeze relief rally than actual demand.. These kinds of setups usually build strong momentum before things get volatile.
Structure over narrative, always.
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Markets don’t bottom when $VIX is up and the S&P is down.
That’s just stress.
Real bottoms happen when:
• S&P makes new lows
• VIX doesn’t
• Bad news stops working
Bottoms are about exhaustion, not fear.
When S&P is falling and $VIX is rising, the market is still discovering risk.
People are actively buying protection. That means fear is growing, not finished.
A bottom can’t form while:
•New sellers are still showing up
•Hedgers are still willing to pay up
•Volatility is still being bid
That’s an unfinished process.
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