CryptoEquality

3.4K posts

CryptoEquality

CryptoEquality

@crypto_equality

Generalist. And generally anxious

Rural frontier Katılım Ekim 2021
194 Takip Edilen317 Takipçiler
CryptoEquality retweetledi
Wellington Sculley
Wellington Sculley@wsculley·
Four years ago this week, Terra/UST lost its dollar peg and kicked off a chain reaction that wiped out $45B and took down Three Arrows, Celsius, Voyager, and FTX... along with the good faith legitimate DeFi had earned up to that point. Most of the retail capital that left after that never came back. The people who stayed are either speculators or true believers. Everyone else is sitting in stablecoins or doing nothing with their crypto. That's the market that needs a product. Not the people who lived through it and kept trading. The ones who got burned and stopped. x.com/crypto/status/…
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CryptoEquality
CryptoEquality@crypto_equality·
@Kev_Capital_TA Thx. Good assessment. Health care in particular rocks our family hard. Like you said, someone should tell trump Americans need help
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Kevin
Kevin@Kev_Capital_TA·
There is no deal in Iran there never was The war was never about helping the Iranian people that was a lie There will likely be boots on the ground soon in some format The energy crisis in Asia is worse then what they’re telling you on American news Oil should be trading over $150 Consumer sentiment is the lowest in U.S. history Inflation is moving higher Nobody is having children Nobody can afford a house Groceries are still way too expensive Household debt is at an ATH at 18T with 5% in delinquencies - Highest in a decade Credit card delinquency’s keeps rising to ATH levels Auto loan delinquency’s continue to rise at a disturbing rate Interest rates are still too high and moving higher Consumer discretionary keeps getting obliterated because no one has money 90% of sectors in the market are making lower highs There are no mass deportations Healthcare is broken for the average American The jobs market is way weaker then what they’re telling you There is a full blown insider trading scam happening at the Whitehouse Tariffs were a complete failure and only caused chaos China will invade Taiwan in the coming 12-36 months National Debt keeps sky rocketing GDP growth is weak and 90% of it is driven by AI buildout There is no border wall Churches are empty more and more every year The facts are is that the U.S. is in a slow, painful stair case pattern down and no one can fix it or ever will fix it in either party. The everyday consumer is getting wrecked and will continue to get wrecked in this economy. We’re officially in the age of the Haves and Have-Nots
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CryptoEquality
CryptoEquality@crypto_equality·
@PalwinderCFA @KobeissiLetter This is the relative info I wanted to know. Moreover, I feel this is like March 2022. That month we were lulled into false security with a run where 9 of 11 candles were green
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Palwinder Singh • CFA
Palwinder Singh • CFA@PalwinderCFA·
A 7% gain in 7 days has happened 9 times since the 1950s. Want to know when most of them happened? 1974, 1982, 2002, 2009, and 2020. Notice a pattern? These aren't the starts of healthy, boring bull markets. They are the violent Snap-Backs that occur during or immediately after a systemic crisis.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
The US stock market is seeing a historic recovery: The S&P 500 has finished green for 7 consecutive trading sessions, the longest streak since October 2025. The index has rallied +7.6% over this period, recovering nearly the entire war decline. A similar 7-day stretch has also been recorded by the Nasdaq Composite, the longest since August 2025. Since the 1950s, the market has seen a similar streak with at least a +7.0% gain only 9 other times, per Carson Investment Research. Following this, the S&P 500 has been higher in 8 of those instances over the next month, with an average return of +4.4%. Over the following 3 months, the market has been up in 7 instances and has gained +10.2% on average. History says market momentum is set to continue.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Kevin
Kevin@Kev_Capital_TA·
Whether the S&P forms a lower high here and heads lower, or sweeps the highs and hits the original target of 7,100–7,300 to draw everyone back into euphoria, all higher time frame momentum, money flow, and strength indicators continue to suggest that a major top has been established.
Kevin tweet media
Kevin@Kev_Capital_TA

The S&P has fallen 6.5%, and the Nasdaq is down 9% since I first started sounding the alarm about market weakness in late Q4. While the crowd remained sceptical, I positioned the portfolio to outperform, and we're now seeing the results. Nearly every move this year has delivered double-digit gains. Timing is everything, don't follow the herd, lead it. Ready for the next move? Let's stay ahead of the game.

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5.0 INVERTED.BULL 🙃
5.0 INVERTED.BULL 🙃@5_0Trading·
We live in a simulation, I don't accept anyone that tells me otherwise.
Unofficial Trump on X@trump_repost

The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately "Open for Business," we will conclude our lovely "stay" in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet "touched." This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime's 47 year "Reign of Terror." Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

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CryptoEquality
CryptoEquality@crypto_equality·
@ramahluwalia He's confusticated between NATO mandate and EU sovereigns. This dude is fucking everything up and I'm sick of it.
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Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia·
NATO successfully contested the Soviet Union. NATO is not a bureaucracy like the UN or the European Commission. NATO has a narrowly scoped purpose.
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Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia·
RIP NATO Trump is previewing his withdrawal from NATO in the same way he previewed Iran action. This is his style. Tease it for a few weeks, then do it. What would it mean for asset prices? Similar to what happened when Zelensky was ejected out of the oval office. Risk off. I’m surprised people have not picked up on this. You need to be sensitive to these cues. The writing was on the wall on Feb 2nd there was an Armada stationed outside the Strait of Hormuz.
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CryptoEquality
CryptoEquality@crypto_equality·
@Kev_Capital_TA So it seems logical to think he is skimming. How much are they taking off the true yield you think?
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Kevin
Kevin@Kev_Capital_TA·
Finally another person who is seeing what’s going on here. Brian Armstrong and Coinbase are holding the clarity act hostage and have been the whole time. They don’t care about your portfolio only their own. Pass the clarity act!
Wealthy Anon@wealthyanon

$355,000,000. That's how much Coinbase makes quarterly from stablecoins. That's why Brian Armstrong is blocking the Clarity Act. He'd rather keep his cut than let trillions flow into your portfolio.

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Kevin
Kevin@Kev_Capital_TA·
What do you think the Truth Social post will be tomorrow to try and stop the 10-year yield from hitting 4.5%, keep oil below $100, and prevent the SPY and QQQ from dropping even further? Any guesses?
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Eleanor Terrett
Eleanor Terrett@EleanorTerrett·
🚨NEW: New details are emerging about the latest legislative text outlining a compromise on stablecoin yield and rewards, along with early reactions from crypto industry leaders who reviewed it today. According to an internal stakeholder email shared with me, the proposal would prohibit platforms from offering yield “directly or indirectly” for holding a stablecoin or in a manner that resembles a bank deposit. The restriction would apply broadly to digital asset service providers (exchanges, brokers, etc.) and their affiliates to limit workarounds, and would bar anything “economically or functionally equivalent” to interest. The proposal would also permit activity-based rewards tied to user activity, including loyalty, promotional, or subscription programs, provided they are not deemed economically or functionally equivalent to interest. It would also direct the @SECGov, @CFTC, and @USTreasury to jointly define permissible rewards and establish anti-evasion rules within one year. One industry leader who reviewed the text today tells me the draft is a “departure” from what had been previously discussed with the White House, warning the “economic equivalence” standard is vague and could be interpreted more restrictively by future regulators. They also point to limits on tying rewards to balances or transaction amounts, which could make incentives difficult to structure. “Overall, this is a more narrow and restrictive approach toward crypto,” they said. Another says the text is “largely in line with expectations” and reflects a balanced outcome, preserving transaction-based incentives while making clear stablecoins cannot function like interest-bearing deposit accounts. “This is the best possible result,” they said, noting that the text is broader than the initial Tillis-Alsobrooks proposal, which would have been more restrictive on crypto. Up next: Bank reps are set to review the text tomorrow.
Eleanor Terrett@EleanorTerrett

🚨🗞️NEW: Crypto and Bank Reps Head to Capitol Hill to Review Stablecoin Deal as Details Remain Under Wraps Some crypto industry leaders will meet with @BankingGOP today, with banks set for tomorrow, to review the product of a long-awaited compromise. cryptoinamerica.com/p/crypto-and-b…

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CryptoEquality
CryptoEquality@crypto_equality·
@ramahluwalia Good Post Ram. Covers all my angst AI: "Live, live, laugh" that will be 500B please As you were "higher for longer" and correct, are you still "over soon" in Iran or is that a bet on over soon-taco time? Trump yelling lower rates and going for a hawk is crazy. Is warsh dif now?
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Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia·
If you’re going to panic, panic first. We have a lot of cash and low beta going into what will likely be a large gap down Monday morning. So long as the price of oil stays in the $90+, the risk of a 10 to 15% correction is elevated. On the brighter side, the S&P and U.S. economy is far less sensitive to energy as it once was two decades ago… thanks to fuel efficiency, energy independence, and energy diversification. If the S&P does drop to, say, 6200 you should be aggressively buying stocks. If you’re already following the Lumida Ledger newsletter over the last 6 weeks you are better prepared than most who are only now waking up.
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia

This is an excerpt from the Lumida Ledger. It was published on Feb 2, 2026 -- two days before the S&P started its 5% drawdown: "Risks are unusually elevated". People who say you can't time the market are often being sold to by asset managers who really don't care. The second snippet is from today's newsletter where I poke fun at AI. I listened to the Dwarkesh x Dylan pod... Thoughts to follow.

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Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia·
Also buying airlines, homebuilders, cruiselines. That seems like a smart idea if you can wait 1 year I think these are up meaningfully.
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Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia·
Buying $ARES and $APO here may be either the stupidest thing you can do, or absolutely brilliant. I'm buying 1% each this morning. Not touching $KKR and $BX which have deeper challenges.
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Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia·
THE S&P: Magical or No? A lot of discussion on how the S&P is only down a few points from ATHs despite violent rotations under the surface. Here's the thing... The Materials and Staples categories moved into bubble territory to achieve that outcome. And that support is no longer there as their safe haven status was lost on Friday. The point is if you think the S&P is a magical index you are mistaken. What you had was the 'hot ball of money' - a term I see increasingly used on X along with Non-Consensus - flood into Staples and Materials. That's a temporary phenomenon. Take a look at the attached valuation multiples for the $XLP ETF and $XLB ETF.
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida tweet mediaRam Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida tweet media
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia

The thing about last week... Many more bubbles started bursting - especially in industrials and datacenter adjancent spaces. I have been growing thru various charts and analysis and there is quite a lot of damage - and new bubbles that have burst. May have to do a livestream tomorrow afternoon. Check out Tesla since this... $TSLA $XLI $GEV $CAT $DE $GLW

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Kevin
Kevin@Kev_Capital_TA·
I have been warning everyone since November of 2025 that the equity markets were looking very weak and it was time to find value/hedges and also raise cash. Momentum, strength, and money flow indicators have been printing bearish divergences on 2W-1M TF's and fundamentally the forward multiple on the market is completely stretched. That and also big tech companies continue to overspend with no real return on investment yet. Now you finally have the macro backdrop with oil skyrocketing and jobs data coming in weaker during a war that appears to be escalating as other super powers get involved. Potentially stagflationary. From a TA, fundamental, and macro perspective the ingredients are all their for a deeper corrective period. #Stocks $SPY $QQQ
Kevin tweet media
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CryptoEquality
CryptoEquality@crypto_equality·
@ramahluwalia IRGC "commander-in-chief" warns on Hormuz. Is that a factional leader or the de facto?
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Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia·
Future down sharply about 2%. This is not a healthy market, and ‘buying the dip’ in high beta names is not a great idea. Anything crowded is getting undone. Today, that includes South Korea and large caps in Japan. In the U.S., You need to see private credit names capitulate to get a bottom. And private credit is linked to capital access for AI names. Yesterday’s rally was a short squeeze driven by beginning of month flows and Hegseth’s pre-market press conference where futures went from -1.3% to -0.8% bps. On Iran, I do believe the conflict in Iran will wrap up faster than the 4 week timeline. That timeline was set to manage expectations conservatively. Trump stated he does not know who is running Iran. And that thousands of IRGC informants are giving up positions. That’s a remarkable statement. Even if you discount possible exaggeration, it suggested that the focus is on decentralized field commanders. It’s not at all clear who leads Iran from here. But, purely from a kinetics standpoint, hard to see this dragging on… If Iran’s top 49 leaders are gone, it’s already over. This begs the question: How exactly does Iran communicate capitulation with binding authority! When does the mouthpiece Foreign Minister become the de facto leader? Who, if anyone, is giving him talking points?
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida tweet media
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia

Every Sunday evening, my team and I organize our thoughts. Even without the Iran conflict, one conclusion keeps coming up… … markets are much more fragile than people think they are. Can’t rule out the possibility of a correction. Think we get a tactical bounce sometime this next 2 week (don’t rush to buy tomorrow morning) but the bigger picture view is just not that constructive. Read my ‘Markets at a Crossroads’ a few weeks ago that lays out a lot of this. Suggest keeping dry powder and look before you leap. This is a very different market from the last few years of Up Only and Buy All Dips.

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CryptoEquality
CryptoEquality@crypto_equality·
@ramahluwalia Same page. " Maybe it (Iran) will take away from other issues(Epstein)...." Frustrating Kids savings, good. Redistribution seems inevitable so might as well be savings plans. Medicare and SS will never go away. It would help if the military budget didn't go to 1.5T
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VisionaryVoid
VisionaryVoid@VisionaryVoid·
In 1941, the most dangerous man in the Nazi intelligence service wasn't a double agent or a master saboteur, but a failed chicken farmer from Barcelona who had convinced the Third Reich he was a fanatic fascist leading a network of twenty-seven imaginary spies. Juan Pujol García, a man with no military background and even less interest in war, decided that the only way to stop Hitler was to dismantle his plans from the inside. He approached the British MI5 with an offer to help, and they laughed him out of the room. Undeterred, Pujol went to the Germans, created a fictional persona—an obsessed Nazi supporter—and offered his services as a spy. To his shock, they accepted. They gave him a code name, Alaric, and sent him to England to build a network of informants. Pujol didn't go to England; he went to Lisbon, bought a map of Britain and a tourist guide, and began inventing a cast of fictional agents including a Venezuelan student, a gay waiter in Gibraltar, and a disgruntled Welshman. He flooded the German Abwehr with reports so detailed and convincing that they eventually stopped looking for other sources of information. When MI5 finally realized what was happening, they brought him to London and gave him a new code name: Garbo. His masterpiece came during Operation Overlord. Pujol convinced the German High Command that the D-Day landings in Normandy were merely a diversion, and that the "real" invasion would come later at Pas-de-Calais. He kept the German 15th Army stationed away from the beaches for seven critical weeks while the Allies secured France. Pujol’s deception was so absolute that the Germans never realized they had been played. In a twist that defies fiction, Pujol became the only person in history to be awarded both the British Order of the British Empire and the German Iron Cross—honored by both sides of the war for a lie that saved Western civilization.
VisionaryVoid tweet media
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John E Deaton
John E Deaton@JohnEDeaton1·
I’m glad the Clarity Act looks like it will finally be approved but the fact that the banking industry has this much power over our elected officials shows you why we need to clean house in Congress. @SenMarkey is a protector of the traditional Banking industry and is completely opposed to Crypto - having voted against the Genius Act. Markey bailed out the banks in 2008 and, according to Open Secrets, the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector is one of Markey's top contributing sectors over his career. #VoteCareerPoliticansOut
Bitcoin.com News@BitcoinNews

NEW: 🏛️🇺🇸 #Ripple CEO @bgarlinghouse says there's now a 90% chance the CLARITY Act clears Congress by April. Garlinghouse discusses today's market structure meeting at the White House and the importance of crypto legislation in the U.S.

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Keşfet

@Kev_Capital_TA @PalwinderCFA @KobeissiLetter @adamscochran @AGPamBondi @5_0Trading @ramahluwalia @elonmusk