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Are Lighter Points the Next Big Airdrop? 🚀💰
Let’s break down what 1 point of @Lighter_xyz 🕯could realistically be worth at TGE using real math not hopium.
Data used 👇
◽️Funding: $89M
◽️Expected FDV at TGE: $2B–$8B
◽️Community allocation: 25%–30%
◽️Total points: 12,000,000
◽️Hype: High (Spot rollout + strong VC backing)
Let’s start:
1️⃣ Bear Case (Weak launch or delay)
FDV: $1.5B - $2B
Community Share :
▫️25% = $375M – $500M
▫️30% = $450M – $600M
💵 Per Point Value:
👉 $31 – $50 per point
If market conditions not good like October +November.
2️⃣ Base Case (Healthy & realistic)
FDV: $2B – $4B
Community Share :
▫️25% = $500M – $1B
▫️30% = $600M – $1.2B
💵 Per Point Value:
👉 $42 – $100 per point
This is the most realistic zone if launch goes smoothly & market conditions good.
3️⃣ Bull Case (Launch euphoria + hype)
FDV: $5B – $8B
Community Share :
▫️25% = $1.25B – $2B
▫️30% = $1.5B – $2.4B
💵 Per Point Value:
👉 $104 – $200 per point
This needs:
✨️Spot trading hype
🔥Strong volume vs Hyperliquid
🔥Heavy CT + VC narrative
🕯 Lighter already has all this.
⚠️ Important:
▫️ This assumes full airdrop unlocked at TGE
▫️ If vesting is added later → Day-1 value can drop
✅ Final Take
◽️Conservative range: $30–$50
◽️ Realistic range: $50–$100
◽️Moon range: $100–$200
Points aren’t lottery tickets' but with this setup, they’re clearly well-positioned.
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