Ozark

@labubu_trader 아 이러지마 라부부야 제발 너를 믿었는데

tinfoil hat smac

this guy

You're going to see a lot of stats today like "When CPI falls below 4%..." "Last time CPI estimates were this far off..." But what you should really know is, oil is already back in the 80s after being in the 60s/low 70s for a good chunk of this month's CPI data and that, if it stays up here, CPI is likely to jump right back up soon. Why am I telling you this? Because the last time CPI dropped ▪ From 4.2% ▪ To under 4% ▪ But then jumped BACK to 4.2% ▪ Round trip in 6 months or less Why, that would be 2008.

@OddStats 초치네 아오

@Merridew__ indeed crazy post x.com/cryptobyrde/st…

thank you @Merridew__

U.S. CPI: +3.5% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.8%) U.S. CORE CPI: +2.6% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.8%)

Ok nice

And SK Hynix is hostage is leveraged to ridiculous leveraged ETFs!! We are about to be devoured by a three team parlay of Hynix, Samsung and SanDisk

SK Hynix closed a bullish hammer candle today following yesterday’s capitulation candle. I think the bottom might be in. The volume is also much higher, which means smart money is entering the market to take shares from panic sellers after the bloodbath. The timeframe of the dip is also pretty aligned with the HKEX opening, which means 7709 also had a big deleveraging event today. So far so good!

Since CPI is either going to be a clearing event or a thanos snap event, I figured it might be a decent time to be helpful. If you’re relatively new to investing, then you’re bound to learn about what happens when your portfolio goes down. Now, this is coming from someone who’s portfolio is up a paltry 20% YTD and hasn’t been gunning it on risk recently. Although also someone who’s been trading and investing their own money for the better part of a decade and has managed to not go bust (except for one, very painful time early on). If you’re constructing a portfolio it’s important to realize it is its own position rather than a collection of positions. A stock is not just a company but the sum of its valuation, shareholder base, its sensitivity to liquidity, crowding, financing/rates and its catalyst calendar. High beta stocks are often five different trades in one ticker. You should always have a working idea of your “tilts”. Does your portfolio go up/down more if tech rallies, if certain countries outperform, if a specific thematic is validated etc etc. In general, you should not have a portfolio of 20 different stocks that all act the same. You might think you won’t, but getting the value of your book cut in half will make you do stupid things. (As an aside, this is also why even though buying the dip is generally a good strategy, progressively buying the dip early into a drawdown can make you mess up at the exact lows.) High beta stocks come in all shapes and colors but in general they are selling the distant future. In good markets, the time out to that future is cheap. In bad markets, you start paying rent. That rent tends to appear as a lower multiple even while estimates stay the same. A lot of times people will tell you the only thing that matters in a drawdown is “is the thesis intact?”. That’s one aspect, the other two are “how have expectations changed?” and “did you size like an idiot?”. Don’t average down just to improve your cost basis, the market doesn’t care about your cost basis. Only add if you can truly underwrite the expected return improving, and that means taking a view that goes beyond a default return to multiples that may be unsustainable. Price can become a fundamental and technical sell offs can manufacture fundamental problems - reflexivity cuts both ways. The best question you can ask yourself in a drawdown is “from here, what is the range of outcomes and what’s the best use of the next dollar?”. If early in a drawdown you note that every time one sector goes up your portfolio goes down, it could be a decent idea to add exposure to that sector. The ultimate goal is not to avoid every drawdown but to make sure no single drawdown takes away your ability to act on real opportunities when they arise. No amount of truisms will help make anyone a better investor, but there is something you can do right now. If this is one of your first few drawdowns, you can observe how you react. Take notes on it. Find out what mistakes you make and then optimize your portfolio, sizing, strategy etc to compensate for those shortcomings. It’s a lot easier to do that than try to fight your own psychology - and anyone who pretends there’s a one size fits all answer to that is lying.

*WALLER: IF I GET ANOTHER HIGHER INFLATION PRINT I WILL TREAT THAT AS SIGNAL NOT NOISE

@tmnxeq @ContrarianCurse Oh Thank you sir

loool no. they just re-neg the whole thing. no penalties, no deposits lost. this is a repeated game & no supplier wants to piss off big buyers for sizing down. (because otherwise, this buyer will buy from competitors in the future.) essentially, bargaining power shifts again to the buyer(s). otherwise, supplier would sit on unsold inventory in warehouses & with manufacturing paused. much worse than re-negging.

@ContrarianCurse oh it was talk about Neocloud

@Merridew__ bullish?

@doppel_ichi ticker?

CEO is talking about price

capitulation followed by capitulation

also bought solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 and $DRAM in US stock market. Same price target.