Papa Salt
5.1K posts


Should have fired him during football season. #FireStricklin
Florida Gators 🐊🔥@gatorsszn
Disgusting @ScottStricklin
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Jerry’s Hole in One set to Creed’s Higher
American Icon #LegenJerry twitter.com/chickenbarmesa…
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🎁 GIVEAWAY ALERT 🎁
We’re giving away a FULL, LIMITED EDITION SET of PHANTOM BLACK P•770’s and a brand new Spider Tour putter from @TaylorMadeGolf.
To enter:
-Follow @stoolgolftime, @ForePlayPod, and @TaylorMadeGolf
-Retweet this post

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@ErickIthier Man I get the chargers are bad, but you go from 0 (zero) to 63 in four days??? I don’t get it but last night was very enjoyable for me lol
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@csalt_56 Ummm much better tonight just glad you guys waited till the next game to do that Lolol that woulda been embarrassing
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Army-Navy total at @BetMGM
29.5 - Open
27.5 - Lowest
28 - Close
62% of bets were on the OVER
Safety for the win or push. ✅
twitter.com/br_betting/sta…
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It's fun debating the #CFBPlayoff scenarios! But the truth is that the betting market is already telling you what will happen. Let's dive in to the hard truths from the market (I'm using Fanduel prices, but these are pretty similar everywhere)
Plus, a valuable bet to make right now at the end:
1) FSU is in with a win
Sorry, 'noles haters. The betting market has priced FSU to make the playoff at -144, which is virtually identical to their moneyline price this weekend of -146. The market thinks there's a <1% chance they get left out if they win.
2) Oregon/Washington is a true quarterfinal
No surprise here, Oregon/Washington to make the playoffs are priced identically to their moneylines on the game this weekend
3) Texas is probably in with a win and FSU loss
Here's where the scenarios start to get interesting. Texas' "to make the playoff" price (+142) is very close to the parlay price of Texas ML + Louisville ML (+156). The remaining difference is probably made up from the small chance that they get in with a Bama win even if FSU wins (implying that there's a scenario where Georgia AND Bama get left out😱)
4) Let's talk about Georgia and Bama
Here's where it gets really interesting.
Bama's "to make the playoff" price is +225, which is longer than their ML price of +188 this week. This is consistent with the pricing difference for Texas. There is absolutely a scenario where Bama wins and still sits behind Texas and FSU if they both win.
Georgia's price is even more interesting. They are priced at +410 to not make the playoff, even though their Moneyline on the game this week is -225.
A parlay of Texas, Bama, FSU would pay +456, and in this scenario Georgia is certainly out. However, there's still room for Georgia to also miss in a scenario where Texas, Bama, and Louisville win. I think from the pricing we see above for Texas and Bama, they'd have to both be in in this scenario. Georgia can't be in over Bama if they lose, and then Texas can't be behind both if Texas wins.
5) Ohio State's one specific path
Ohio State is priced at +1800 to make the playoff, which is basically the identical price of a Georgia, OK St, Louisville ML parlay. Ohio State needs this exact scenario and the market believes they'll be in. If Bama beats Georgia instead, the market says Georgia will still be ahead of Ohio State and grab the 4 seed.
Recap
So, while the guessing games are fun, thanks to the betting market we basically know exactly what the committee will do in all but one scenario. Our playoff teams are:
Michigan (if they lose, things get too crazy and we won't go into that here)
Oregon/Wash (loser is out)
From there, an FSU win gets them in and leaves one spot. This will go to Georgia (if they win) or a tossup of Texas/Bama (if they both win). FSU, Bama, Texas all winning is the "nightmare scenario" of the committee because they have to do one of three things:
- Leave out an undefeated P5 conference champ (the market says they won't do this)
- Leave out the SEC entirely
- Leave out a conference champ who beat Bama while putting Bama in somehow
I don't envy their decision in that spot, and the market thinks it's 50/50 between option 2 and 3. Expect the committee to be rooting very hard for Louisville this weekend.
Finally, as the dust settles, there is one valuable bet to make here, which is:
Georgia to miss the playoff +410
As you can see from my pricing analysis above, I believe Georgia's path in if they lose is much narrower than people think. Bama's win sets off a whole set of scenarios that makes it incredibly hard to leave them and Texas out, which then makes it very hard for Georgia to get in.
If you disagree with me on this, then the valuable bet becomes Texas to NOT make the playoff at -176. If you don't think Georgia has value to miss at +410, then you have to believe that Texas misses more often with a win and a Louisville win, making -176 valuable.
Happy champ week everyone!
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Anyone else remember when he did this last hire cycle just to get more money from Michigan? No? Just me?
Sportskeeda Pro Football@SKProFootball
Jim Harbaugh has interest in becoming the next head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. (Via @TheAthletic) #NFL #JimHarbaugh #LasVegas #Raiders
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@ErickIthier Brother Id you know how bad it’s been this was our Super Bowl 😂😭
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These guys acting like they just beat a division rival or a Super Bowl contender smh lol
Bleacher Report@BleacherReport
Raiders smoking victory cigars🔥 (via @loganreever)
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