Daniel

$100 Million in 63 Days. The Market Just Told You Everything You Need to Know About the SpaceX IPO. Before a single page of an S-1 has been filed. Before a roadshow. Before a ticker symbol exists on any exchange, a blockchain-native token tied to SpaceX generated over $100 million in notional trading volume across 653 active traders in just 63 days. That is not hype. That is the market speaking in the clearest language it knows: price! What the Token Is Telling Us The T-SpaceX token on Solana is trading around $650.26 per token, implying a SpaceX valuation of approximately $1.54 trillion. The widely reported IPO target range is $1.75 to $2.0 trillion. That gap is the market’s honest assessment of execution risk. It is not saying SpaceX isn’t worth $2 trillion. It is saying prove it on the roadshow. This is price discovery in its purest form, live, two-sided, and unfiltered by investment bank syndicate desks. Why This IPO Is Unlike Anything We Have Seen Before SpaceX holds over 90% of global commercial launch market share. Starlink serves over 4.6 million subscribers across 100 countries, with revenue projected to exceed $12 billion in 2025 and analysts modeling over $100 billion annually by the early 2030s. The U.S. military’s reliance on Starlink, demonstrated in Ukraine, makes SpaceX a near-irreplaceable defense infrastructure asset. SpaceX’s last private valuation was $350 billion in December 2024. The current IPO range reflects 4 to 6 times value creation in roughly 18 months. That is not a normal trajectory. What Smart Money Is Watching The T-SpaceX token is functioning as a shadow order book. If the deal prices too far above $1.54 trillion without new catalysts, post-listing break risk rises. For the first time in market history, investors have a live window into pre-IPO sentiment before the prospectus drops. That is a structural shift in how IPOs will be analyzed going forward. The SpaceX IPO will be the most watched capital markets event in a generation. The investors paying attention right now will be best positioned when that opening bell rings. Disclosure: I am an early investor in SpaceX-related instruments and intend to participate in the IPO when shares become available to the public. This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. All opinions are my own. Investing in IPOs involves significant risk including potential loss of principal. I may buy, sell, or hold positions before, during, and after the IPO without further notice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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When the argument starts with insults. Besides showing your completely insecure, very low self esteem, or even fear of showing your inadequacy, it usually means the substance isn’t there… The U.S. generates massive revenue every year and still runs deficits because spending consistently exceeds it. That’s not ideology, that’s arithmetic. But more importantly, this entire discussion proves the original point. Policy drives behavior. When tax burdens rise and capital feels it’s being misallocated, it moves. That’s exactly why you’re seeing tens of billions in income shifting out of high tax states and into places like Florida. You can debate the philosophy all day. The market already made its decision.

@cybtrader @DivesTech @sytaylor You are dumb as fuck. Tax cuts since Reagan and Fake wars created the debt. America has a Revenue problem, not a "normal not military" spending problem. Trickle Down is a well documented fail, Billionaires don't only not pay taxes, but shit wages leaving the gov to feed people.

The Great Tax Migration Is Reshaping American Wealth and Real Estate A generational shift in American wealth is no longer cyclical. It is a structural realignment driven by aggressive state tax policy targeting high earners. Capital and talent are moving rapidly from high tax states to zero income tax jurisdictions like Florida and Texas, reshaping real estate values, tax bases, and the geography of wealth Washington State’s new 9.9% tax on income above 1 mil. signals a major shift for a no income tax state. Its structure creates a marriage penalty where dual income couples are taxed while unmarried individuals earning the same combined income are not, reinforcing mobility among high earners with flexibility to relocate Massachusetts generated 5.7B from its surtax yet continues to lose high income residents and firms. New York is moving toward combined rates approaching 13%, pushing marginal burdens toward 60%, while already losing approximately 25B in adjusted gross income over the past decade California remains the most advanced case with a 13.3% top rate and ongoing discussion of taxing unrealized gains. Early 2026 data shows declining home purchases and rising concern around structural corrections in Los Angeles and the Bay Area, reinforcing weakening demand in high tax markets Florida is the primary beneficiary with net income migration of approximately 39.2B annually, or 4.5M per hour, with over 50% coming from New York, New Jersey, California, Illinois, and Pennsylvania Real estate data confirms the shift. West Palm Beach luxury prices have appreciated 187.3% over ten years versus 15.4% in New York City. In the first 60 days of 2026, Florida recorded over 126M in migration driven transactions. Miami continues evolving into a global financial hub with 500+ transactions above 10M in 2025 and a high percentage of all cash deals Palm Beach County is now a core destination for ultra high net worth individuals with cash transactions near 45%. Growth is moving north into Vero Beach, Stuart, and the Treasure Coast where valuation gaps remain but are unlikely to persist The economic driver is simple. A New York City resident earning 5M annually can save approximately 550k per year by relocating to Florida, creating a potential wealth differential exceeding 7M over ten years through compounding At a macro level, this trend is self reinforcing. As high earners leave, tax bases shrink, tax rates rise on those remaining, and outmigration accelerates, already visible in New York and San Francisco For investors, Florida’s Atlantic coast including Miami, Palm Beach, West Palm Beach, Vero Beach, and the Treasure Coast represents one of the strongest long term opportunities. Texas continues to capture corporate migration while high tax coastal markets face structural headwinds This is not a cycle. It is a permanent shift in how capital, talent, and wealth are distributed across the country and it is accelerating

@randycruse @DivesTech @sytaylor You can pass it. Then you can watch the tax base walk out the door.

@cybtrader @DivesTech @sytaylor Sure you can.

@brianlivesey21 @DivesTech @sytaylor If higher taxes fixed debt, we wouldn’t be sitting at $42T right now. It’s a spending problem.

@cybtrader @DivesTech @sytaylor Taxes made America Great. Tax cuts created our $42Trillion Debt

@brianlivesey21 @DivesTech @sytaylor Calling it a “big lie” is what people say when they don’t have an argument. $39B a year doesn’t move on narratives.

@cybtrader @DivesTech @sytaylor Let them all go. It is all part of the big lie.

@randycruse @DivesTech @sytaylor You can’t tax something that leaves. 😂

@cybtrader @DivesTech @sytaylor Every state should tax billionaires of existence. No one can spend a billion dollars in a lifetime.

@rhondabannard @DivesTech @sytaylor If the thesis was “uninsurable,” the market would be shutting down, not setting records. Capital doesn’t ignore that kind of risk. Wake up !

@cybtrader @DivesTech @sytaylor Are Florida homes insurable.

@deputydogblitzn @DivesTech @sytaylor Capital doesn’t leave one system to recreate it somewhere else. It moves to avoid it.

@cybtrader @DivesTech @sytaylor The ultra rich are moving to Florida which will become NYC or California in 10 years,we already lost grocery stores to scamazon and Walmart,all that's left is over priced Publix

@Qw93885707 @DivesTech @sytaylor That’s a reaction, not an argument. High earners are responding to math, not labels.

@cybtrader @DivesTech @sytaylor The locusts are spreading to new fields

Starlink Mobile’s next-gen satellites will deliver 5G speeds from space with 100x the data density of the current V1 generation satellites V2 satellites will seamlessly enable streaming, internet browsing, high-speed apps and voice calls, just like being connected to a terrestrial network → starlink.com/mobile

How Starlink Mobile Will Become the Biggest Wireless Shift in 40 Years Elon Musk has effectively put a two-year countdown on the idea of a wireless dead zone. This is not a distant concept, but a defined production timeline backed by roughly $17 billion in spectrum, thousands of next-generation satellites already moving into orbit, and mobile chipmakers now designing the silicon required to make direct satellite connectivity a standard feature in future smartphones. What is unfolding could reshape the global wireless industry more profoundly than any development since the early cellular buildout. Where things stand today SpaceX’s first direct-to-cell satellites are operational, and T-Mobile’s T-Satellite service, launched commercially in July 2025, is already delivering satellite texting, voice, and limited data to millions across multiple regions. Phones automatically switch to satellite when terrestrial coverage disappears, without any accessory or setup. This is the minimum viable phase: basic connectivity where towers cannot reach. It is meaningful, but only the beginning. The $17B spectrum move In 2025, SpaceX agreed to acquire EchoStar’s AWS-4 and H-block spectrum in the 1.9–2 GHz range for approximately $17 billion. This spectrum is designed for higher-bandwidth communication between satellites and smartphones, ultimately enabling streaming-grade data directly from orbit. Current phones are not built for these frequencies, meaning new chipsets and hardware integrations are required. Musk has indicated compatible devices are likely within about two years, with a clear objective: video and full broadband access anywhere on Earth. This moves far beyond emergency texting and introduces persistent global broadband delivered directly to handheld devices. Two engineering tracks The next phase depends on two developments reaching maturity together. In orbit, SpaceX is scaling a second-generation constellation optimized for cellular connectivity. Thousands of additional satellites are scheduled to deploy, with major capacity expansion expected around 2027. On the ground, semiconductor companies are integrating satellite-compatible radios into future smartphone platforms. As these chipsets reach flagship devices later in the decade, satellite broadband shifts from optional feature to baseline assumption. What this means In the near term, users will see expanding satellite-backed messaging and voice beyond coverage. As new satellites deploy and compatible devices arrive, bandwidth will rise materially. Within the next hardware cycles, smartphones will assume continuous orbital connectivity. Video streaming mid-ocean, real-time communication across remote regions, and reliable global data without towers will become standard expectations. The phone in most pockets today is likely the last generation that loses service because of location. Soon, “no signal” will not be defined by geography, but by how old the device is. #Starlink #SpaceX @SpaceX @Starlink @TMobile @Qualcomm @Apple @Samsung

@KevinMikOrMak So if your a software engineer you don’t care about losing your job ? Spare me your unintelligent, ignorant and spineless responses

@cybtrader Why am i seething this worthless garbage nobody fucking cares man

The Coming SaaSpocalypse The coming SaaSpocalypse is no longer a thought experiment. It arrived in a single session and Wall Street felt it immediately. A recent AI plugin release wiped out roughly $285 billion in global software and data market cap in one day. That kind of repricing only happens when investors realize the rules have changed. “SaaSpocalypse” captures a growing truth: AI may not just enhance SaaS platforms. In many cases, it can route around them entirely. The catalyst was the launch of an agentic AI coworker capable of reading files, organizing folders, drafting documents, and executing multi-step workflows with approval. Role-specific capabilities spanning legal, finance, sales, marketing, product, and data analysis followed quickly. The legal workflow was the breaking point. When contract review, compliance checks, document summaries, and draft briefs could be handled by an AI sitting directly on top of files and approvals, sentiment flipped almost instantly. The narrative moved from “AI helps SaaS” to “AI replaces SaaS.” What makes this destabilizing is not a breakthrough model. It is the removal of the app layer. These agents orchestrate work directly across documents, APIs, and tools. That strikes at the foundation of SaaS valuations. Recurring revenue depends on workflow lock-in. Premium multiples depend on proprietary data and integrations. Agentic AI sits above the stack and decides which services, if any, are needed to achieve an outcome. The center of gravity is shifting. From logging into many applications. To telling an AI coworker what you want done. Early patterns are clear. High-margin, document-heavy sectors like legal, finance, compliance, and research see the sharpest repricing. Thin workflow layers over third-party models face the most skepticism. Even strong platforms must now prove they can absorb agents rather than be bypassed. Not everyone loses. Several public companies are positioned to benefit as the stack recenters around agents, compute, and infrastructure. Foundation and agent platforms: Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META) AI compute and manufacturing: NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD (AMD), TSMC (TSM) Infrastructure and networking: Vertiv (VRT), Cloudflare (NET) Workflow orchestrators: ServiceNow (NOW) This is not the end of software. It is the end of the assumption that yesterday’s SaaS playbook guarantees tomorrow’s margins. The SaaSpocalypse is less about destruction and more about a shift in power. And it has already begun.

Market Research Update to Followers I wanted to take a moment to step back and review how the 1921 = 2020 framework we have been following consistently since May 2020 is performing and where it is pointing us next. Up until this month the model has correctly forecast the monthly direction of the market every month by using the recreated S&P 90 (daily market cap index used in the 1920s) as a forerunner of the modern S&P 500. Based on that framework the model projected the market up roughly 30% this year and approximately 32.5% next year. I recently amended that forecast based on what I believe is a major inflection in productivity that is only beginning to be recognized. The most recent quarterly productivity print of 4.7% is not the peak but the early signal. The acceleration coming from AI Agentic systems, Drones, Robotics, and Starlink-driven connectivity is happening faster than expected and is beginning to appear in the data. When combined with structural shifts, including Venezuela’s reopening, the weakening of Iran, tax and regulatory cuts, the elimination of unproductive spending on illegal immigration, and the reduction of roughly 350,000 federal employees without severance obligations, the setup for a productivity surge becomes clear. My view is that productivity could reach 8% by the 4th quarter. That change alone alters the growth and valuation framework. As a result I now believe the market could be up 100% across this year and next. Turning to the near term the model projected January as slightly down, essentially flat, and volatile. While January finished up 1.3%, the month felt worse due to extreme volatility and rotation. Given how close the outcome was to the forecast, I believe the model remains on track. Looking ahead, February is projected to be up approximately 2% and March up around 1.5%. After that the model points to a strong acceleration, with only a brief pause in October before a surge into year end. I expect these gains may be magnified as the year progresses. On inflation, the TruFlation index measuring over 15,000 products currently sits near 1.2%, giving the incoming Fed chair room to cut. At the same time, money supply growth is approaching 5%. Tokenization will increase the money multiplier, strengthen the dollar, and help keep inflation contained. Taken together this marks the beginning of the acceleration phase of the third leg of what I believe will be remembered as the greatest bull market of all time. From an allocation perspective, favored allocations include Apple, Uber, agentic AI equities, transportation sector exposures, and the Russell 2000. Since our October call, the Russell 2000 has continued to perform strongly and was up 5.3% last month. For everyone who has followed this work since the early posts, congratulations. The foundation is in place and in my view the real opportunity is just beginning!

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