Cycle Investment Strategy

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Cycle Investment Strategy

Cycle Investment Strategy

@cycle_strategy

Long-term cycle, value, technical analysis; trading & investing || Become a sub: https://t.co/nS75O2uvHb

Hamburg, Germany Katılım Mart 2021
126 Takip Edilen8.5K Takipçiler
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Cycle Investment Strategy
Cycle Investment Strategy@cycle_strategy·
Our new investment is already up over 20%, pushing the live model portfolio to a solid 23.9% YTD. A key pillar of our strategy is the analysis of market cycles and the macro regime we are operating in at any given moment in time. This allowed us to position most of our investments in energy related sectors before disruptions began, while also enabling effective risk management to reduce downside.
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Cycle Investment Strategy@cycle_strategy

Entered a new investment! Subs, check your inbox or the link below!

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Cycle Investment Strategy
Cycle Investment Strategy@cycle_strategy·
Aaand here is the weekend report for the subs fresh out the press. Check your inbox or the link below. Have a great start to the week!
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Cycle Investment Strategy
Cycle Investment Strategy@cycle_strategy·
Free report: A month ago, we published our report “Greenback comeback”, calling for a stronger dollar and higher energy prices. With the Iran conflict continuing to escalate and energy markets seeing serious disruptions, we wanted to open this one up for free (link in the comments). The next big report is dropping tonight for subscribers. #oil $XLE #LatAm
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Cycle Investment Strategy
Cycle Investment Strategy@cycle_strategy·
We are witnessing an absolutely historic disruption of energy markets that clearly overshadows previous disruptions. A complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would affect roughly 15% of global production, as around 6 million barrels per day could likely be rerouted via pipelines and the Red Sea. Based on our rough estimate that about 7–8% of global supply can already no longer be produced, we are effectively already in the scenario of the 1970s. However, that is already the base case at present. Further escalations or a truly sustained closure of Hormuz would lead us into completely historic chaos.
Cycle Investment Strategy tweet media
Cycle Investment Strategy@cycle_strategy

This will be the biggest supply chain crisis the modern world has seen post WWII. The disruption is 2-3x larger than in the worst 70s oil crisis but supply chains are way more global and complex. Hyper complex systems react exponentially (butterfly effect). Take measures now.

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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
Third attempt at TACO this week (one early in the week by Trump, one Thursday by Netanyahu - was that a NACHO?) Both of those failed because Iran and the bond market both get a say. This TACO attempt and all future ones will also likely fail unless Hormuz is open.
Javier Blas@JavierBlas

BREAKING: Trump on Iran: "We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts [...] The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!"

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Cycle Investment Strategy
Cycle Investment Strategy@cycle_strategy·
The western govs will outbid each other with energy stimulus to prevent them to be the ones where the demand destruction takes place first. I think there is an incentive to really print into this economic shock which would probably will send us to 14-20% CPI.
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Respeculator
Respeculator@respeculator·
@cycle_strategy It's a good point. Makes you wonder where oil/products could go if all Western governments start to "subsidise" demand via removing taxes or handing out direct payments... pray for the poor countries that cannot match this.
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Cycle Investment Strategy
Cycle Investment Strategy@cycle_strategy·
Imagine the coming energy crisis will shut down a significant amount of computing due to energy rationing and high prices hitting large data centers making all that capex worthless for now...
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Cycle Investment Strategy
Cycle Investment Strategy@cycle_strategy·
#Oil COTs: The positioning of managed money (dumb money; green) is still historically low and is only now beginning to turn higher.
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Cycle Investment Strategy@cycle_strategy

#Oil is up biggg — the even bigger question, however, is how sustainable this move really is? To be concrete it is very likely that the current bid is significantly more sustainable than many may assume. The war is likely nowhere near an end and, historically, geopolitical tensions that trigger an oil bid in this macro environment do not tend to fade that quickly.

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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
Bessent un-sanctioned Russian oil AFTER WaPo reported Russia was helping Iran targeting US assets the way the US has been helping UKR target Russian assets... ...& yet Wall Street consensus overwhelmingly remains that "Bessent has everything under control." Fade that view, hard
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone

PUTIN OFFERS TO STOP INTEL TO IRAN IF US CUTS UKRAINE Russia proposed to the U.S. that it would halt sharing intelligence with Iran if Washington stopped providing intel to Ukraine. The offer, made by envoy Kirill Dmitriev to Trump aides in Miami, was rejected. Europeans worry Moscow aims to split the U.S. from its allies. Russia has increased intelligence and military support to Iran, despite calling reports “fake news.” The Kremlin said Ukraine peace talks are “on hold,” while the U.S. continues limited intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries to Kyiv. Recent easing of Russian oil sanctions has further alarmed European leaders.

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