Den Bond

Saudi Arabia has restored the East-West pipeline, bringing bypass capacity back to 7M barrels per day. That is roughly 7% of global supply now less exposed to whatever Iran or others decide to do next. The bigger point: with output around 10.2M bpd, Saudi can now route a massive share of its crude without relying on Hormuz. Domestic consumption is about 3.5–4M bpd, which means the Kingdom still has room to keep over 10M bpd in play for the global market and likely add another 300–500K bpd if needed. That does not eliminate risk, but it clearly softens the potential supply shock and makes a full-scale oil shortage materially less likely. #Oil #EnergyMarkets

Gringos in a sour mood 😩 🇺🇸💁🏼‍♂️ A cyclical recession is approaching in the US 📋 The US Consumer Sentiment Index has plunged to the lowest level in history (47.6 — new all-time low) Americans are clearly not feeling optimistic right now. #USRecession #ConsumerSentiment

Judging by the heavy sell wall at $73-75K on Bitcoin… it will take serious buying power to break through. Without it, we’ll likely head back down. But if this resistance gets smashed, we could easily push towards $90K 🔥 #Bitcoin #BTC

Two exciting crypto-related developments that could drive fresh Bitcoin demand: 1️⃣ Iran has proposed charging $1 per barrel of oil for passage through the Strait and wants to be paid in cryptocurrency. 2️⃣ Morgan Stanley just launched its Bitcoin ETF today with an ultra-low fee of only 0.14%. If the war situation moves toward resolution, the trend could shift quickly. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has already surged sharply and recovered about half of the drop from the late March low. #Bitcoin #Crypto

US unemployment rate dropped 0.1% in February, and the economy added over 100k more jobs than expected. Although the overall trend in unemployment is still upward, the current level looks quite optimistic. That said, with the sharp spike in oil prices, this data takes a back seat for now. The Fed will likely keep rates on hold for an uncertain period until the Middle East situation and oil prices stabilize. #JobsReport #FedPolicy

@rf_extended Good job, team!

Extended end of Q1 update [TLDR] - Multi-asset collateral launching soon - TradFi expansion accelerating (>25 markets live, partnership coming, focused on distribution via TradFi brokers) - Becoming more institutional-ready (pricing methodology, trading workflows) - Building decentralised, high-throughput sequencing [Product] The team has completed development of multi-asset collateral margin. It is now in the testing phase on testnet and undergoing smart contract audits. We expect to launch at the end of April or early May, with support for wBTC, ETH, USDT and potentially EURC as collateral, subject to underlying liquidity. In Q1, we also doubled down on our TradFi offering, expanding to 25+ equities, indices, FX markets and commodities with competitive liquidity. We are currently finalising an agreement with a major TradFi broker, which will both broaden our offering and help bring in flow. The other priority for the team is making Extended more institutional-friendly across both product and trading: - Improving the definition and transparency of fair reference pricing for TradFi markets, with a consistent and clear methodology: spot-based references for equities and FX, and futures-derived pricing for commodities and energy - Introducing and better communicating institutional-grade features such as MPC wallet workflows, API key-only trading, and our sub-account architecture In addition: - With multi-asset collateral, we have built native spot markets (required to process liquidations of non-USDC balances). These will be released shortly after the cross-asset rollout. - The team is progressing towards decentralising sequencing via an application-specific chain built on a high-throughput implementation of full BFT consensus (targeting ~50ms block times and hundreds of thousands of transactions per second). This architecture introduces an app-chain layered on top of our existing zk-enabled stack, enabling decentralised matching and related services while preserving existing security guarantees. More details and timelines will be shared soon. Importantly, this design enables Extended tokenomics and revenue accrual to the token. [Growth and community] Our strategy remains consistent: - Stay open to feedback - Continuously iterate on the product - Encourage organic usage - Do not do paid marketing or paid deals - Focus on long-term sustainability and value creation Over the past quarter, we have gained stronger conviction that demand for perpetuals is increasing among traditional players, driven by 24/7 trading, higher leverage and deeper liquidity. As a result, we are doubling down on business development with TradFi brokers (fintechs and trading platforms). This is a long-term effort, but we believe it will be a key driver of sustainable growth. We also have several important integrations with trading terminals coming up, both retail and institutional. [Team] Over the past quarter, we hired 3 new team members and are now a team of 14. As we move towards decentralising sequencing, we expect to grow to 18-20 people in the coming months. [Market and exchange metrics] Nothing unexpected: January saw all-time highs across key metrics, followed by a broader market slowdown in February and March. All Extended metrics are public: dune.com/extended/exten… From our perspective, short-term market conditions are less important than long-term trends. What matters is that the market we are building in continues to grow and there is room for new players. We strongly believe this is the case: - price discovery for TradFi assets is likely to increasingly shift towards perpetuals. More on this here: x.com/rf_extended/st… - DeFi continues to gain share versus CeFi - Regulatory clarity is improving across both the US and Europe

Another major funding round just closed for OpenAI amid the volatile US stock market. The company raised $122 billion at a massive $852 billion valuation, based on the investor agreement. Notably, this round came in $12 billion higher than the valuation announced back in February 2026, during calmer times. Reminder: the company remains deeply unprofitable on an operating basis. #OpenAI #AI

US markets are rallying strongly after Trump’s comments that the war could end soon. Iran’s President also stated that Iran is ready to stop the war, but demands guarantees that it won’t happen again. Hope is growing for a ceasefire agreement and aligned positions on peace. #Trump #Ceasefire

@theereaallkiki @ChonkyBee @fondation_d @JoeySelda @NGB4aF3flOodyRO @Arya12508697 @yaannnn15 @kr30291027 @mohammadparish2 @DoniRam23254042 @Rasul86192407 Burn in hell, scammer

Markets are rallying and everyone’s cheering that Trump just switched on “TACO,” but Iran still hasn’t confirmed any “good and productive” talks. Meanwhile, semi-official Iranian outlets like Fars, which is closely tied to the IRGC are saying there were no talks at all. What kind of world are we trading in when headlines move prices faster than facts? Who are we even supposed to trust anymore? #Markets #Iran

They kept walking but never arrived… Powell, ever the polite one, says the “shocks interrupted progress on inflation.” In plain English: Trump’s reckless moves have reignited price growth, and the Fed has no clue how this ends. Yesterday’s PPI came in way hotter than expected (0.7% MoM vs 0.3% forecast), confirming inflation is heating up again. Rates stayed unchanged as predicted, but the Fed’s 2026 inflation forecast worsened, now 2.7% (up from December’s 2.4%). Unemployment projection holds at 4.4%, while GDP got a slight upgrade to 2.4% (from 2.3%). Powell reassured everyone that “stagflation” is too strong a word, we’re not there yet. Bottom line: the Fed still sees just one rate cut by year-end. For markets, this is definitely not bullish news, especially with the Iran adventure dragging on and no end in sight… #Fed #Inflation

Wall Street is making timid attempts to reverse course, but with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively blocked, Iran ready for more war, and Trump’s desperate outbursts, he’s basically accusing NATO of betrayal the overall picture looks far from encouraging. I doubt Powell will want to throw Trump a lifeline at today’s press conference… and even if he did, he probably couldn’t. With oil comfortably above $100, inflation is knocking on the door again. #OilCrisis #IranWar

It looks like some investors are starting to bet on a quicker reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, several tankers made it through unharmed, which sparked a bit of hope. In the crazy world we’re in right now, though, optimism comes and goes in a flash. Still, let’s take the wins we get yesterday major indices closed green, even if trading volumes suggest not everyone’s convinced yet. Jensen Huang just spoke at the conference in San Jose: he says demand for AI microprocessors could hit $1 trillion by 2027 double this year’s forecast. Wild growth ahead. Today the Fed kicks off its meeting the penultimate one under Powell’s leadership. Rate decision seems priced in, so all eyes on the press conference for any hints. #AIboom #FedMeeting

On Wednesday, we’ll get the scoop on February’s inflation when the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops the CPI index, expected around 2.5%. In the meantime, keep an eye on oil prices shifting with the wins of the conflicting sides, and gauge how that’ll hit March’s inflation numbers. This morning, oil futures surged 25%, the biggest spike since the futures market kicked off in 1980. The big question: Will they hold steady, and for how long? (Probably until ships can sail freely through the Strait of Hormuz.) If prices stay elevated, we’re all in for tough times. Stats show a sustained 10% oil hike shaves 10-20 basis points off global GDP and boosts inflation by 20-40%. Do the math… Futures traders already have, the major stock indices are deep in the red. Gold’s dipping too as the dollar strengthens. In summary: Buckle up for a “thrilling” week! #OilCrisis #InflationWatch

@feeeniqs @info_insightful Good job 👏🏻

@info_insightful Looks like I should start watermarking my screenshots next time. Glad to see it making the rounds. x.com/feeeniqs/statu…

You used/farmed Paradex for 3 yrs, lost mid 4 figures hoping points would be "valuable" Only for TGE to happen out of the blue in the worst macro imaginable -70% in first 3 minutes with only $80k selling pressure, now at ~$55M FDV Selling XP OTC would of made you 4x more in $ value (I didn't sell most o myne I got lazy, lessons in there) Paradex team was apparently the one buying XP OTC = make people think points are "valuable" / anchor it to around a certain FDV price so they keep trading to farm XP OG ShizoPunk NFT collection (yeah I forgot this existed too) + other 2 NFT collections = basically useless Is DIME the main Paradex token or a memecoin ?

The first panic faded fast, by session close, investors were rushing back from safety to risk. Nasdaq and S&P 500 even closed green. But I don’t think we’re out of the woods. “Epic rage” could trigger epic oil prices and choke economic activity. Rising bond yields + inflation comeback + recession threat = the one word everyone fears: stagflation. TLT (long-term Treasuries ETF) chart still looks brutal, this pain has dragged on for a full five years now. Won’t dive into oil or defense stocks, you already see the moves. Early buyers, congrats! #Stagflation #OilShock

Bitcoin has been mirroring May 2022 almost perfectly for the last 3 weeks. So I think we’re heading even lower in early March or right around the next Fed decision. 📉 #Bitcoin #FOMC

Despite Nvidia’s blockbuster results, investors aren’t buying the hype $NVDA shares are bleeding red today. Half the revenue comes from Hyperscalers pouring hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure. If just one of them hits pause or even taps the brakes on capex… rough seas ahead for Nvidia. Yesterday every major index closed red (except Dow), same for gold, silver & crypto. Inside the indices? Zero correlation, some names fly, others tank. Anxious vibes… 📉 #NVDA #AI