Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
Here's a few important points before I go to sleep:
1. Iran won the war. The terms of the ceasefire they shared give them control of the Strait of Hormuz, charging $2M per ship, pocketing $100 Billion a year.
Those numbers are wild!
And on top of it, the ceasefire proposal includes the lifting of all sanctions
Remember, one could say Iran has been in a state of war for decades due to the crippling American sanctions, and now this is all coming to an end
2. Trump did the right thing pulling out, not listening to the lunatic war mongers around him, and not listening to anyone in the Israeli lobby that may have wanted the war the continue.
As I said earlier today, a good leader knows when to walk away
3. I am not surprised we have a deal, I've mentioned it all day, as Trump's posts made it obvious to me he was pressuring Iran for some final concessions before accepting his off-ramp
4. Trump will twist this into a win, and his diehard supporters will believe him. This is a GOOD thing, as Trump no longer needs to militarily try to get a 'win'.
As I've said earlier in the day, Trump can (and just did) create his own offramp.
5. The Middle East will never look the same. I expect the Gulf to gradually normalize relations again with Iran, which started after Israel's strike on Qatar.
Also the balance of power will drastically shift away from Israel, and this may have massive positive implications on Lebanon, Syria, and possibly even Palestine.
6. China is the BIGGEST winner, as Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz means China is indirectly controlling it
7. Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz is a generational strategic loss for the U.S., and a risk to the dollar dominance (Iran can chip away at the Petrodollar)
8. Hezbollah will come out stronger from all this, possibly more powerful than it has been in decades (unless the deal involves Iran disbanding their proxy network)
9. I'm exhausted and need to sleep. Below there's some more info on my stance over the past 24 hours, as well as how we broke the story of a ceasefire almost an hour before any media outlet and Trump's post.
Good night everyone!
