Dairy Opportunities

@ronh999dairy Hi

My forecast for May 23 state milk production is +0.74% YoY

USDA: #Soybean plantings down 1.2 million acres from last year. Kansas, Minnesota, and Ohio contribute 0.25 million apiece to that decline. #Soy acres up in the Delta states, Indiana, and Wisconsin.

The story in dairy this year is the huge increases in milk and even higher butterfat production. Especially from CA.

US Feb milk production was +1.8% YoY but butterfat production is up 3.15% YoY. Highest per day in history for any month. public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

US Feb butterfat milk and cow percent YoY data by region. public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

USDA Europe cheese report says milk production is stronger than cheese production needs. Cheese inventories are growing.

USDA Midwest cheese report says spot loads of milk are at $2-3 under class

Jan NFDM inventory +113.4 YoY public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

Jan American cheese production +10.9 mil YoY public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

CWT assistance YTD after 8 weeks of 2018 is +10.176 mil YoY for cheese and +2.03 mil YoY for butter

US Jan milk production was +1.8% YoY but US butterfat production was +3.1% YoY because US was 5 points higher YoY at 3.97%. Higher butterfat percent/milksolids leads to higher cheese yield from the milk.

US cheddar cheese at retail (CPI data) in Dec 2017 was +1.1% higher YoY at $4.95 per lb. But NDPSR Dec cheese price to dairymen was 8.4% LOWER YoY at 1.6481.

US Aug cheese stats. US commercial disappearance of cheese was only +0.3% YoY

US NFDM inventory +72.9 mil lbs YoY or +31%. I have data to 2000 & this is highest NFDM inventory in all those years public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

US Aug American cheese production +5.8 mil lbs YoY or +1.5% public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

US Aug butter & Milkfat exports +3.95 mil YoY public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

US Aug total cheese imports -3.9 mil YoY public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

US Aug milk production +2% but butterfat production +3.7% YoY. US up 6 points YoY. From 3.66 to 3.72. public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

CME cash block-barrel cheese spread. Summer 2016 very low. Summer 2017 very high. First 3 weeks of Sep 2016 & 2017 about the same

CME cash block & barrel cheese June thru Oct prices since 2011 (atypical 2014 removed) plus chart with averages public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…