Dan Kaminsky
128.7K posts

Dan Kaminsky
@dakami
We can fix it. We have the technology. OK. We need to create the technology. Alright. The policy guys are mucking with the technology. Relax. WE'RE ON IT.
Katılım Eylül 2007
414 Takip Edilen83.7K Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet

@SwiftOnSecurity It's still bad writing if they don't even spend half a scene telling you why those precautions weren't taken.
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@SwiftOnSecurity Yeah mean like the way Jurassic Park only actually fails because it's sabotaged, not Life Finding a Way?!
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@infosec_au @daveaitel In the past, there were some pieces of software I thought were harder to set up than find bugs in
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@gcampax Have you seen ngboost? Regression with explicit probability distributions.
stanfordmlgroup.github.io/projects/ngboo…
There’s a lot going on treating probabilities as first class citizens. But do you know of anything quantifying probability prediction error for various real world systems?
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@dakami Most model probabilities are way off, and models are overconfident. There is a whole line of work on calibrating models so that output probabilities refect the actual probability of correctness.
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Close. AI has plenty of doubt (most models can return probabilities for any prediction, if you configure them to).
The problem is humans, not doubting the AI enough to notice when it doubts itself.
It’s a tool, and it matters how you use it.
Financial Times@FinancialTimes
What separates humans from AI? It’s doubt on.ft.com/3dstHH9
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@blaktron I suppose. Inference is just running the balls through the pachinko machine and seeing where they land.
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@dakami Thats literally what inference is, right? Having just enough data to reduce doubt of the conclusion below a determined level.
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@SpeakingBee @AlexShulepov7 @patio11 Might happen.
But 2021 might well be different. This vaccination drive is actually going well.
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@dakami @AlexShulepov7 @patio11 Out of bureaucratic inertia. The CDC and NIAID utterly failed every test COVID put to it and nevertheless its leadership gained power, prestige and money. The FDA screwed up constantly and gained power to obstruct even more next time.
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Largely agree with this taxonomy.
There are (and I know this is surprising to many peers) a lot of people who are acutely sensitive to complexity/difficulty/mental effort required to get through things.
We understand this in B2C conversion optimization and industry spends $$$$.
Ashish K. Jha@ashishkjha
When it comes to COVID vaccine, 4 types of folks 1st Desperately seeking vax 2nd Want vax. Won't jump through hoops 3rd May want vax. Have questions 4th Don't want vax We're about done vaccinating 1st 4th not that big Lets work on 2nd (make it easy), 3rd (answer questions)
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@SpeakingBee @AlexShulepov7 @patio11 Why? Out of spite?
You think the flu shot is going to stay the same? Do you imagine the vaccine production lines will be shut down?
Chronic lower respiratory disorders were the number three killer of humans before COVID came along, which is btw a chronic lower resp disorder.
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