Darren

Some thoughts on AIR OF ENTITLEMENT (16/1 best-price with Bet Victor) for the Martin Pipe… Some of you have asked why I consider Air Of Entitlement a value bet at 16's for the Martin Pipe, even after that disappointing run at Leopardstown last time out. Short answer: Her Cheltenham evidence, RaceIQ sectionals and current mark all still point the same way. Let’s walk through it. 1️⃣ The basic profile Trainer: Henry de Bromhead Owner: Robcour Age: 7yo mare Current Irish mark: 138 over hurdles She has been "taxed" or raised 1lb by the BHA for the Martin Pipe so runs off 139 Key form: Won the Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle (G2) at Cheltenham in March 2025 She finished 2nd over 2m4½f on soft/heavy at Fairyhouse abck in November Then had a below-par Listed handicap run at Leopardstown on December 29th. She’s not a “sexy” talking horse. She’s a strong, steadily–progressive mare with: Proven Cheltenham form A staying pedigree (family of Irish Grand National winner Rogue Angel) And a mark that still looks workable in the right race The Martin Pipe – strongly run 2m4½f on the New Course – sits right in the middle of what she wants. 2️⃣ Cheltenham – the key piece of evidence 13 Mar 2025 – Cheltenham, Dawn Run Mares’ Novice (G2), 2m1f, good to soft Won at 16/1, coming from off the pace to nail Sixandahalf late beating 22 rivals The visual impression is clear: She travelled well enough, handled the track, and finished stronger than anything else up the hill. It was visually very impressive with the first two home pulling 6.5 lengths clear of the 3rd RaceIQ data backs that up: Jump Index: 6.5/10 (5th overall) → Not flashy, but efficient and tidy enough in a huge field. Longest Good Jump (LGJ): +3.77L (4th) → She gained ground at her best hurdle, not the other way round. Final Sectional Percentage (FSP): 106.57% (1st) → She produced the strongest finish in the race relative to the overall pace. Top Speed: 35.35 mph (9th) Entry Speed: 30.58 mph (4th) Plain English: She was well positioned turning in (good entry speed rank). She didn’t need to be the fastest on raw speed – she simply kept finding when others were stopping. Racing Post Race Verdict - "this comes out well on time regarding the other races over hurdles on the New Course." RaceIQ has her as the best closer in the field, which matches exactly what the replay shows. That’s exactly the type of profile you want for a strongly run handicap over this further 2m4.5f trip: Handles the hill, switches off, then powers through the last half mile. Ideal. 3️⃣ Fairyhouse – the staying test in bad ground 4 Nov 2025 – Fairyhouse, 2m4½f, soft to heavy Seasonal debut. Gave weight to race-fit rivals and chased home Fad Eadrainn, who was getting 14lb and arrived sharper. RaceIQ there: Jump Index: 6.7/10 (4th) LGJ: -1.07L (3rd) → At worst, she only lost about a length at a single hurdle. No major blemish. FSP: 102.14% (2nd) → Strong finisher again, despite giving weight, and this race was run over the Martin Pipe 2m4.5f on Soft/Heavy Going. Top Speed: 30.99 mph (2nd) Speed lost: -3.28 mph (4th) Entry Speed: 27.45 mph (2nd) So what does that tell us? She travelled like the class mare in the race, up there on entry speed. She kept going when others folded in deep ground. She only really got done by a fit rival with a big pull at the weights on very testing going. If you strip away the names and just look at the pattern: Fresh mare + 2m4½f + soft/heavy + strong finishing sectional That’s exactly the kind of run you want to see on the way to a 2m4½f Festival handicap. 4️⃣ Leopardstown – why I’m happy to forgive it 29 Dec 2025 – Leopardstown, Neville Hotels Premier Handicap, 2m4½f, good to yielding On paper, this is the “worry” – she never got involved and dropped away. RaceIQ makes the case for putting a line through it: Jump Index: 6.9/10 (11th) LGJ: -6.21L (15th) → At her worst hurdle she lost over six lengths. That’s not her normal profile at all. FSP: 98.63% (14th) → This time, she didn’t finish off – below standard on the clock. Top Speed: 33.41 mph (14th) Entry Speed: 28.77 mph (15th) In simple terms: She never travelled with any real fluency. She lost ground at a key hurdle instead of gaining it. She didn’t pick up in the straight like we saw at Cheltenham and Fairyhouse. The Racing Post comment lines up with that: “Air Of Entitlement was another to disappoint, stopping quickly going to the second-last for no obvious reason. She was reported to be post race normal.” So there’s: No obvious physical excuse But a very clear rhythm and efficiency issue in the data For me, that makes it a “messy race” forgive, not a sign her ceiling has dropped. If you only looked at Leopardstown, you’d bin her. If you look at the whole pattern, this race is the outlier. 5️⃣ Her mark and the Martin Pipe shape She’s started handicapping off 139 and: Ran to 137 RPR at Fairyhouse giving weight away Has a Cheltenham G2 RPR of 137 on the New Course trip-shorter Comes from a staying family and shapes like 2m4½f+ will suit The interesting bit for me: The handicapper has left her near the same mark while other Irish horses have been hit harder. She’s lightly raced enough that there could easily be a bit left to come – especially up in trip in a strongly run race. The Martin Pipe tends to suit: Second-season types still improving Strong finishers who is a former 3-mile point-to-point winner with proven 2m4f form Horses that conserve energy early, then surge late On the RaceIQ numbers, she fits that template much better than that Leopardstown run suggests. If the ground comes up genuinely soft, she only strengthens: We already know she stays 2m4½f on soft/heavy. We know she can finish off strongly at Cheltenham. And we know her mark hasn’t yet fully caught up with her potential. 6️⃣ Where I am with her right now Right now, for me, Air Of Entitlement is: A proper live Martin Pipe contender with a forgiving recent run and sectionals that still scream “stays, finishes, and fits the race.” She’s not bombproof. She still needs: The race confirmed as the target but that looks highly likely A final check on how the weights and opposition shape up after final declarations But if you’re wondering why she keeps popping up in my work: The Cheltenham win says she handles the place. The Fairyhouse second says she stays and digs in. The RaceIQ data says Leopardstown was a blip, not a collapse in ability. And the 139 mark still leaves room for her to land a proper handicap if things fall right. I also like her prep with two runs then a 74-day break prior to the Festival. She had a similar break before her win last year with Henry De Bromhead saying afterwards - "I always say I prefer coming here fresh and happy." That’s exactly the type of mare I want to be talking about for the Martin Pipe – not the obvious hype horses, but the ones whose numbers, profile and campaign still all quietly line up. 👍

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