Daniel with an L

Learn from what you lost. Appreciate what you have. Pay for what you want.

From an imagined interview (via ChatGPT) with Sam Zell: bostonrealestatetimes.com/what-would-sam…

"Every cycle feels unique while you’re in it. It never is. The people who win aren’t the ones who predict the future best. They’re the ones who stay solvent long enough for the market to hand them opportunity."

@DaBao_ @joinyellowbrick I sold out of my position and will (one day perhaps) stop shaking my fist at the clouds.

@DaBao_ @joinyellowbrick The stock's limit up today as the company announced that they're paying a hefty dividend, no doubt with earnings, which were as great as I expected, and also with the completely unnecessary sale of shares.

This company's stock price is up 40% in the past 3 months and the multiple on this year's earnings is roughly 4.

@stocksnblondes6 Yes, the short position in Starbucks is small and, yes, the portfolio is very long Japanese companies. I'm actually pleased with it all.

@daniel3point0 This seems like a stretch. $ORR has a nominal position in SBUX. And the rest of the port is basically just long Japan, short U.S. tech and small caps.

Starbucks is selling for 82x earnings and opening stores in places like Fansipan. I’m glad I’m short the stock (via a long position in $ORR).

1/ I've said it before and will say it again: avoid EM index investing. Their performance has lagged, both in the short-term and in the ultra-long run.

The core business continues to be waste management, but sales of burial plots now equal 10% of gross profits and I actually like this part of the business a lot!

Earnings as a whole were up slightly for 2025, the dividend got a slight boost as well, and the company's ROE is now close to 26%.

$USD.VN boasts 25% ROE and sells for only 4.8x earnings, pays out half of those earnings and yields 11%, provides essential, recession-resistant services with predictable cashflows.

@AdamB1438 Thoughts and prayers!

Five other boys from my son's sedond grade class came over unexpectedly.... and we're holding up OK almost two hours later!

this is actually insane > be tech guy in australia > adopt cancer riddled rescue dog, months to live > not_going_to_give_you_up.mp4 > pay $3,000 to sequence her tumor DNA > feed it to ChatGPT and AlphaFold > zero background in biology > identify mutated proteins, match them to drug targets > design a custom mRNA cancer vaccine from scratch > genomics professor is “gobsmacked” that some puppy lover did this on his own > need ethics approval to administer it > red tape takes longer than designing the vaccine > 3 months, finally approved > drive 10 hours to get rosie her first injection > tumor halves > coat gets glossy again > dog is alive and happy > professor: “if we can do this for a dog, why aren’t we rolling this out to humans?” one man with a chatbot, and $3,000 just outperformed the entire pharmaceutical discovery pipeline. we are going to cure so many diseases. I dont think people realize how good things are going to get

@Sati773655 I ended up selling the rest of my shares at the top in early 2025; if only every entry and exit I made was like this one!

@daniel3point0 Congrat @daniel3point0 well timed action

In the same research report I mentioned yesterday, they had two (scary) charts showing how much the earnings multiple for FPT has expanded. Here's the first one:

I should buy more of my local beer company tomorrow; this is exactly the type of thing you see when a trend has run its course:

Digital oil.

@TgMacro @dailydirtnap Also, Jared, for the love of all that is holy, read Dungeon Crawler Carl; I've never read a book more tailor-made for somebody than this whole series is for you.

@TgMacro @dailydirtnap Great show, as usual. Y'all should look at SMB, a small beer producer in Vietnam, which sells for 6.5x earnings and yields 14% with little debt.

Macro Dirt Podcast #87 @dailydirtnap OIL: Random Number Generator youtu.be/EWrnKdfyEyQ?si…

@orrdavid Investing is actually much easier when you're working with a small amount of money.

*Everyone* gets a seat in the investing game.

In investing, you don't need credentials or family money. All you need to do is put $10k into a brokerage account and start performing well over a statistically significant sample. That is seriously it. Investing is the most meritocratic career/business there is.

@Jason6842369881 @flowidealism For the same reason besting someone else's KPIs doesn't necessarily mean an adult's on the right track.

@daniel3point0 @flowidealism How doesn’t it?

For many homeschoolers, Alpha School’s “two hour learning” as all it takes to outperform regular schools is old news. Two hours of serious, focused attention on learning easily outperforms 6 hours of boredom and distractions.