Daniel McDowell

New pinned tweet.

Via @Newsweek: Professor @daniel_mcdowell says he's concerned the conflict could “result in renewed attacks from the White House on the independence of the Federal Reserve. bit.ly/4uJx4iw

In today's @WSJ I write about the threat of embargoes, shipping insurance, DPA, asset freezes, and why the war with Iran is a geoeconomic one: wsj.com/opinion/to-squ…

One thing that’s critical to note is that the 80 percent figure that is often cited about how much CIPS relies on Swift comes from 2022 (and actually research in 2021) and has not been updated…

These guys get paid to talk sports lmao

In January my colleague Jessie Yin and I asked 'When will Wall Street's tolerance for uncertainty run out?' We charted a series of crises, and mostly (but not always) positive market reactions, to show the point. Tonight and tomorrow will be a new test of that question. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econogra…

@vshih2 that's gold.

😂😂

José really showed up with a custom belt of ... himself. 🐐 #GuardsSpring

(It is also possible I'm thinking of a different Bloomberg story, as I'm sure there have been many published on this subject over the last couple of months). Thanks, and great work on the FT piece.

...but also, that state officials are concerned abt this & want to see that change. Of course, it's very possible this is all high-level trolling--kicking the $ while it's down. But I'd also appreciate your analysis over the next six months-year to see if things begin to change.

Me, in the Financial Times -- On the surge in China's intervention, and the impossibility of diversifying away from dollar assets/ Treasuries when the state banks are buying $100b a month in FX 1/

A depressing piece, but also a must read. Regulators and companies must do better. Men have to do better.

@joshualipsky I can totally hear you saying, "tornadic activity", Josh.

Was on CNN to talk tariffs but for a moment thought I was going to live out my childhood dream of being a weatherman

Alright, team @ACGeoEcon has done some good quick work on the (likely temporary) winners in a 122 world. Note that USMCA etc not factored here. Check it out:

No one is asking you to sign "top-tier" free agents, they're just asking you to do *something* external to improve the team.

@daniel_mcdowell @Dali_Yang Also if you don’t actually know how things work and what motivates people and institutions, you wouldn’t even know what questions to ask or what data to collect in the first place. Of course AI can do some of that but remember it is trained on patterns from the past

@vshih2 @Dali_Yang Yes, this too!

I tell my students that one of the main reasons not to over-rely on AI for research/writing is b/c--at some point--you're going to have a face-to-face conversation with someone who matters, and if you don't actually know some things, that interaction will not go well for you.

The greatest ad I’ve ever seen 😂