Daniel Topal

🚨New Review! Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean The earliest ice-free conditions in the Arctic could occur in 2020–2030s under all emission trajectories & are likely to occur by 2050 nature.com/articles/s4301… @SeaIceClimate @CUBoulderATOC @INSTAAR @CUBoulder @NCAR_CGD

New study: the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”. The paper by Dutch colleagues adds more weight to recent warnings, such as the OECD Climate Tipping Points report of 2022 and the Global Tipping Points report published 2023. realclimate.org/index.php/arch…

Happy to have been involved in this review led by Prof. Edward Hanna . Thanks to all coauthors , I too learnt a lot in the process.

Out today! Our new Review paper in @NatRevEarthEnv "Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets" nature.com/articles/s4301…

The conclusions about caution of model projections due to dynamical biases are much in line with what we know for Arctic sea ice ( nature.com/articles/s4155… )Could be interesting if there is a common driver behind underestimated dynamics in models between the Arctic and midlat too

@FMassonnet Thanks!😊

@daniel_topal Congratulations Dani, the first one of many more!

Honored to have received the young researcher award 2023 of the V4 countries’ academies for my research in the context of polar climate change.

The ‘Polar Amplification and lower latitude connections’ AGU23 session already has a nice lineup of abstracts (incl mine 😏). Submissions are still open until 2 Aug, consider if interested👇🏼 session by @polar_james Yutian Wu Lantao Sun Qinghua Ding agu.confex.com/agu/fm23/preli…

Winds of change in Arctic sea-ice sensitivity earthenvironmentcommunity.nature.com/posts/winds-of… #BehindThePaper

We highlight tropical Pacific drivers of Arctic and Greenland ice loss. Convection changes (lower frequency than ENSO) in the tropics is key to drive atmospheric Rossby-waves into the Arctic, but these low frequency changes are not fully captured in CMIP. nature.com/articles/s4155…

Sea Ice Is Going, but When Will It Be Gone? A nice comparison of Min et al. and our work 👇 eos.org/articles/sea-i…

@Dave_Bonan @NatureClimate Thanks!

Bad news: emissions-driven wind changes are likely not well enough represented in climate models. Good news: when correcting for this issue, the first occurrence of a sea-ice-free Arctic is actually delayed. More details in @NatureClimate Free access: rdcu.be/deluw

@FMassonnet @NatureClimate Indeed! Yeon-Hee et al scale "(...) models’ sea ice response to greenhouse gases to best match the observed trend". This is exactly what we think is something to be cautious of as better described in the research briefing: nature.com/articles/s4155…

@daniel_topal @NatureClimate Well done Dani! Interesting that 2 recent papers (yours & nature.com/articles/s4146…) come to >< conclusions regarding whether a sea-ice-free summer will be realized later or earlier than projected by uncalibrated models. A sign that science is not settled yet regarding this issue?

Topal, D.-Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven ... orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/29… #OA

A better representation of wind-driven warming processes in models has potential for lessening sea-level rise projections uncertainties associated with Greenland melt. 👉👉 out today @NatureComms with @xavierfettweis @zhelzlz and others not on twitter nature.com/articles/s4146…

Our new paper on tropical forcing of jet stream waviness is out today in @NatureComms nature.com/articles/s4146…

Our new paper is out today. I led this project to refine future hydroclimate uncertainties in Central Europe based on large ensembles. link.springer.com/article/10.100…

Don't forget the next SMILE webinar is tomorrow!