Danilo Evangelista

My final forecast for the 2025 Hurricane Season for the Both the Atlantic and Pacific: 16-19 Named Storms, 6-9 Hurricanes 3-5 Majors in the Atlantic, and 15-19 Storms, 8-11 Hurricanes and 5-7 Major Hurricanes in the Pacific. Get ready for an active peak as I have been saying...

Weekly Tropical Weather outlook video: youtu.be/tdOTpBs0sec

Incredible WWB being forecast in the next few days by both the GFS and Euro. I think Super El Nino is beginning to knock on the door...

@primitivojc47 Probably gonna continue to warm gradually throughout the spring. I do think the current pattern will become more favorable than it is now, but the question is will it be enough to counteract the El Nino?

Predictably, AccuWeather predicts a near to below normal hurricane season for their first forecast of the 2026 Hurricane Season, at least in the Atlantic. El Nino + Not Too Favorable SSTA Pattern in the Atlantic is definitely going to yield a different season this year...

Odds for a super El Niño would get a boost if twin tropical cyclones form in the West Pacific during April. The circulation around these storms would cause another vigorous westerly wind burst, sending yet more warm ocean water toward the east.

Btw I am not posting their landfall graphic on here, but here's the link to their forecast: accuweather.com/en/hurricane/a…

Damn... the warm signature associated with the PMM is only getting more and more impressive as the days go by. If you want a strong El Niño, this is definitely working in its favor.

Update: Things have definitely changed since then...

Very interesting looking little LP in the Eastern Atlantic. Water temps are around 17-18 C in the area so it definitely won't form into anything sub/tropical - but it's one of those things that if it happened in August or September, you'd think it would have a chance.

@Brandond4063 Maybe it will be after all: we'll see how things progress....

@daniloevan11 This is why that some of the things you talked about in yesterday’s update like the SOI render useless. Even the MJO not crossing the Pacific doesn’t matter or say anything about what may come from ENSO according to Eric Webb. There’s a flaw between the MJO and ENSO for a while.

Holy shit it's even stronger on today's run...

El Nino strength is important, but the extraordinary, accelerating, warming of global sea surface temperatures is much more important. See Super El Nino? – mailchi.mp/caa/super-el-n… Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/super-el-nin…

A record-breaking westerly wind burst is underway in the tropical western Pacific. It will blow copious amounts of warm water eastward, bolstering the odds of a strong or super El Niño later this year.

Monstrous westerly wind burst being forecasted - if you are looking for a very strong El Nino this year - this is the kind of signal you want to see.

Some are calling it the strongest el niño advancement signal of the decade.

Well that is quite a strong WWB in fact on both the EPS and the GEFS ensembles in the WPac...

The signal for a robust El Niño for the peak of Atlantic #hurricane season (Aug-Oct) continues to grow. El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear. We'll have lots more to say with CSU's initial 2026 hurricane forecast on 9 April

Phil is on board with a robust El Nino. Possibly true. I'm not saying an El Nino won't form. Im just not convinced it will be a Godzilla El Nino or even a Super El Nino. RONI +1.5 by SON is my peak forecast.

Are we actually going to get a very strong nino?? Latest weekly discussion: youtu.be/uuInKxVqask

@Snowlover111232 Fair enough.

@daniloevan11 Ya I know but I think ens is still better to use op can overcook both ewb and wwb

Interesting - the GFS is indicating a very strong WWB to occur close to 2 weeks out near the 180 degree line. Seems like today it's forecasting a stronger phase 7 mjo than previously. If this holds - maybe the higher end nino forecasts could verify - in contrast to my skepticism.