David Milliken retweetledi
LARGE PARTS OF SPAIN AND PORTUGAL HIT BY POWER OUTAGE via @Reuters
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David Milliken
7.3K posts
David Milliken
@david_milliken
Reuters reporter covering the Bank of England, UK economy & bonds. Formerly in 🇩🇪 and 🇧🇪. DMs open. RTs ≠ my view. Also on 🦋 at @davidmilliken.bsky.social
London, mostly Katılım Nisan 2008
2.8K Takip Edilen5.3K Takipçiler
Two in five benefit claimants report wishing they were dead or to self harm, according to research by @KingsCollegeLon professor Ben Baumberg Geiger.
But according to @OBR_UK the annual cost is set to hit £100 billion by 2039-30.
Check out more here: reuters.com/world/uk/uk-fa…
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Britain's disability benefits system leaves almost no one happy.
It's expensive (by historic standards, if not internationally), gets few people back to work and appears to cause major distress to many claimants.
"Trust is very low," says @resfoundation economist Louise Murphy
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More on today's inflation data here by my Reuters colleague William Schomberg and me reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
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Initial market reaction was pretty muted but gilt yields have been edging up.
10-year yields are now at a 3-week high of 4.607%, up nearly 5 bps on the day.
Markets still just about see 2 more quarter-point rate cuts from the Bank of England this year.
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Today's 3% UK CPI reading for Jan topped all forecasts in Reuters' poll (and the BoE's 2.8% forecast).
But in many ways it was a mirror image of Dec's weaker-than-expected 2.5% reading.
Air fares were a driver both times, adding 0.25pp in Dec and subtracting 0.14pp in Jan
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David Milliken retweetledi
Take Five: Market themes for the week ahead - The art of diplomacy @LKrauskopf @david_milliken @a_coops1 @marcjonesrtrs @DharaRanasinghe reuters.com/business/take-…
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Pill's message was that "disinflation" remains intact in the UK, despite a "hump" in inflation this year.
"I would expect we're going to cut Bank Rate further. But the pace at which you can do it is less," he said.
Full story from @BillReuters and me:
reuters.com/markets/rates-…
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Out overnight: Reuters' exclusive with Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill.
Top line: he's cautious about further rate cuts (which isn't a no - but means a slowish pace) due to weakness on the supply side of the economy and it's ability to match demand.
Other key lines:
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@tom_nuttall Do you know if there’s a stream of this that’s viewable from the UK without a VPN? ARD and ZDF live TV appear geoblocked.
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Germany's first televised debate between the candidates for chancellor kicks off in just over an hour. And if you miss it, there is no shortage of further options...
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Lots of unknowns about true levels of productivity, unemployment etc might make many MPC reluctant to look through >3% CPI.
More here reuters.com/world/uk/bank-…
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Today’s Bank of England rate cut was less dovish than it looks at first glance.
True, Mann wasn’t on anyone’s list to vote for a 50 bp cut.
But on the hawkish side
- CPI to peak at 3.7% in Q3 and slowish to fall
- there’s a camp on the MPC who are “cautious” about further cuts
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Demand from UK pension funds for UK long term government debt has been slowing for years, and some investors say it’s time for the UK to speed up its response
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reuters.com/markets/rates-…
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How does last month’s UK gilt selloff (now reversed) affect UK bond issuance plans for 2025/26?
To some investors, it strengthens the case for the UK to speed up its shift away from long-dated gilts, where Britain has issued double the global average.
(Link in next tweet)
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@PiQSuite @SubanAbdulla So 16-17 bp drops in yields across the board today for the UK now, after softer UK and US inflation data.
That leaves 2s and 5s just 4-5 bps above where they were at the start of the year, while 10s and 30s are about 13-15 bps higher
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@PiQSuite @SubanAbdulla The ONS explains it here, and h/t to Ellie Henderson at Investec whose note referred to it (I'd missed it initially as a rise in fuel prices cancelled out the effect at the broader "transport" level.)
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👍 If you follow U.K. markets, follow @SubanAbdulla and @david_milliken
PiQ@PiQSuite
🇬🇧 UK inflation drop gives relief to Reeves after market selloff Tickers of Interest: $GBP $FTSE $GILT British inflation slowed unexpectedly last month and core measures of price growth - tracked by the Bank of England - fell more sharply, according to official data that will be welcomed by finance minister Rachel Reeves after a market selloff. The annual rate of inflation edged down to 2.5% in December from 2.6% in November
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@PiQSuite @SubanAbdulla Updated Reuters story on today's inflation data by @SubanAbdulla and me here reuters.com/world/uk/uk-in…
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