Dave Kile

Not too surprising, but the latest NMME is out and continues to show increased confidence in a strong and perhaps near-record El Niño this fall/winter. The *mean* is now around +2.5C, and that's being dragged down by the low outlier (which is still around +2C). The forecast look for the Atlantic peak season continues to be about as hostile as you'll see: strong Niño, +PMM, average to cool MDR (-AMOish). The extremely dry precip anomalies reflect how hostile the Atlantic basin will be for convection and TC development this year. On the other hand, I think this year has a large-scale setup that could result in a few Hawaii threats, moreso than any year in a long time.

This 1995 NYT article pushed speculative claims: “..most of the beaches on the East Coast of the United States would be gone in 25 years.” This kind of agenda-driven narrative has gone on far too long and is just plain junk. It undermines credible science and fuels long-term mistrust.

Looking forward to learning more. Can AI trained on reanalysis outperform physics-based models in real-time forecasting?

Since my website still isn't ready here's another teaser from my pad camera 😜 This is a crop from the print I'll offer from this launch- available soon. I'll send out an email when it's ready, make sure you join my email list at the link in my bio if you want to be included!

This is not fine, it's terrible. The IPCC moved to SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 many years ago. Knowingly and continuing to advocate for RCP 8.5 is reckless and irresponsible. Science is centered on facts not agendas. #climate @CPRBlog progressivereform.org/publications/r…

Baby Emmett enjoying his first @NASA rocket launch and approves. #artemis

@ryanweather It will be interesting to see if the algorithms start changing this week.

Looking forward to social media companies being sued into oblivion for force feeding dangerous "climate doomerism" to vulnerable young people. Meta is profiting from ad revenue & promotion of materials causing crippling mental illness.

Another weather record for today!

@ryanweather A compelling counter to the scarcity narrative is the Simon Abundance Index: despite rising global population, resource abundance—measured by the time required to earn it—has increased even faster.

Why Democrats Are Particularly Attracted There is a strong default compatibility to the neo-Malthusian worldview. Since roughly the Obama years (and accelerating with the Green New Deal), the Democratic Party has shifted heavily toward: Redistribution and equity frameworks (“climate justice,” historical responsibility, global transfers). Skepticism of unfettered capitalist growth (“overshoot,” “planetary boundaries,” post-growth thinking). Government as the central planner of the economy. The neo-Malthusian ideology is almost perfectly suited to this worldview. It provides: Moral cover for redistribution (“the rich must sacrifice for the planet and the poor”). Justification for state control and planning (“we must manage the transition”). A sense of moral superiority and purpose. Many Democrats are sincere believers in the scarcity narrative. Others are drawn to the power and financial flows it enables. Either way, the fit is extremely strong. Bottom line: The combination of regressive costs on ordinary people + concentrated gains for connected elites + moral/intellectual cover makes these policies highly attractive to the current Democratic operating system. It is both corrupt in effect and self-perpetuating. This is exactly why the capture has been so complete and durable. The ideology serves too many powerful interests at once. That’s the immoral dynamic at work.

The Democratic Party's current operating system (the neo-Malthusian limits-to-growth framework) has become so deeply embedded in its activist base, donor class, intellectual elite, media ecosystem, and primary electorate that no candidate can realistically win the 2028 nomination by promising a fundamental break from it — at least not without being branded a heretic and collapsing in the early primaries. The DNA of current Democrats is neo-Malthusian.

@strobist @erikrc I'm sure it's very subdued.

The entire Afroman lawsuit is nothing short of amazing Officer Pound Cake 🤣

@ryanweather North America has warmed ~1.4 ° C from the 1850-1900 baseline and 0.4 ° C in the last 20 years. How are playground slides now “too hot for children” and “an evening stroll unbearable”? For the love of Zeus, can they ramp up the fearmongering any higher?

When you see a Lancet "climate change and health" study in the news media, a good rule of thumb is to put it in the trash. Lancet publishes "climate activism" nonsense as profundity with fatally flawed data and methodology.

@erikrc OMG I just started this on YT. I'm gonna be busy for a couple days with all this trial and news video. I do enjoy a good 1st Amendment issue and outcome.

@davidkile I keep thinking it’s a long drawn out skit but nope

@WaywardRabbler Yeah because those clear thinking men lied to us 23 years ago with fabricated stories of WMD, ISIS, and yellow cake. All very rational and they seem like heroes now?

My strongest reflection on Trump’s current behavior is that while invading Iraq 23 years ago was “crazy” in a colloquial sense, it was done by men who were clearly thinking rationally in the more literal mental health sense. The contrast is stark.

@Bryce_Nickels 🍿

This is a must see event!

@erikrc Been looking for a good book on the Mexican American war of 1846. It starts earlier, but seems interesting with take over of Texas and the Southwest. I want to learn more about Comanches, Alamo, Polk, Santa Anna, war, attacks, corruption and all the usual stuff.

@davidkile I’ve read it, it’s a good book. China learned from that and is doing the same thing in Africa.

Feels like the Pentagon vibe coded this invasion

@erikrc You should read Confessions of an Economic Hit Man by John Perkins. Fascinating account of how the US in the 60's and 70's fixed problems in several counties with CIA and military regime changes.

@davidkile None of those had ChatGPT calling the shots

@dccommonsense The more things change...? I feel we have moved forward and things are very different now. For one example, we have had Black, Catholic, Irish, and German heritage presidents. Not sure of any of those folks would have been accepted to the highest office in 1850.

A reminder that the first (and IMHO greatest) Republican president opposed the nativist sentiment of the "know nothing" American Party in the 1850s. Blacks,Irish, German &Catholics were among that era's victims.The more things change...