Dave

@AdamWagner1 This is not a joke.

@Ole_S_Hansen What do you think the historically low open interest in silver is telling us?

Managed money positions in gold, silver, platinum and copper

The latest COT on #commodities report, covering the week to Tuesday, 24 March, highlighted another week of strong buying despite a 2.1% setback in the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The decline was driven primarily by heavy losses in precious and industrial metals, while energy, grains, and softs all posted gains. The overall net long across the 25 major futures contracts tracked rose to 1.8 million contracts - a four-year high - representing a nominal value of USD 175 bn. Of this, USD 80 bn is concentrated in energy, a much reduced USD 50 bn in metals, and USD 27 bn in grains, with the remainder allocated to softs and livestock. Beyond the developments in energy and grains highlighted previously, it is notable that the double-digit slump in gold, silver, and platinum has had a limited negative impact on positioning. There has been little appetite for fresh short selling, suggesting the correction has so far been driven by long liquidation rather than a broader shift in sentiment. More in my update on Monday.

I expect a 40% return over 9 months will start to catch people's attention sooner or later!!

@steve_hanke That is far away from the true inflation figure. Definitely more than 10% last year and that is very conservative.

Bulgaria’s FORCED ADOPTION of the Euro was supposed to benefit Bulgaria. Instead, inflation sits at 3.32%/yr, WELL ABOVE the ECB's 2%/yr inflation target. As the Father of Bulgaria’s currency board, I predicted this.

@TaviCosta Seems inevitable to me, just a matter of when the weekly breakout comes!

Sugar prices are just starting to move after rebounding from a key historical support level. This could turn into a highly explosive move in my view Few assets carry such significant societal implications if they begin to rally. Similar setups here: open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/…

@KingKong9888 I'm jealous, enjoy the amazing seafood.

Back to Phuket Thailand. Everything seems to be normal.

@ABridgen They will have no luck this time - the cat's out the bag. Even ’normies’ won't have it!

'May' signals they are telling us what they have planned! The 'new normal'! The EU central bank predicts energy lockdowns and restrictions on freedom for ‘years’. Those currently in positions of power want to lock us all down again. The Covid scamdemic was just the trial run.

@Macrobysunil Seems too obvious for an imminent crash, I don't think we see it until late July -August. Markets will make higher blow off tops before then.

Iran war didn’t create the problem. It just pulled the curtain back. And what’s underneath doesn’t look good. We’re not watching a geopolitical event anymore. This is starting to look like the early stages of a financial one. Oil ripping higher wasn’t just a headline. It reset the entire macro backdrop overnight. Higher energy → inflation risk comes back → rate cuts get pushed out. That alone is enough to stress the system. Now look at what followed. UBS just halted withdrawals in a real estate fund. Up to 3 years. That’s not a routine move. That’s what happens when money wants out, but the door is too small. And this is where it gets uncomfortable. A lot of these funds were sold as “liquid” exposure. But the assets underneath aren’t. You can’t sell buildings overnight. You can’t meet redemptions if everyone shows up at once. So the only option is to stop them. This isn’t isolated either. Private credit is seeing the same pressure. Real estate is already struggling with higher financing costs. Buyers are stepping back. Everything works fine… until liquidity is needed. Then you find out what’s real and what isn’t. The sequence is pretty straightforward: Oil shock → inflation uncertainty → tighter financial conditions → investors start pulling money → funds struggle to meet exits → gates go up And once that starts, it feeds on itself. People don’t wait around to find out if they’ll be next. They pull capital wherever they still can. That’s how stress spreads. Not in one big collapse, but in small breaks that start linking together. The bigger point here, The system was already stretched. Too much depended on low rates, easy liquidity, smooth exits. The war just sped things up. What you’re seeing now are early cracks. Nothing dramatic yet, but the kind you don’t ignore. Because if liquidity keeps getting tighter from here, these “contained” issues won’t stay contained for long. This is how these cycles usually begin.

@themarketsniper Hmmm, I'm feeling a big crash is coming July- August. I'm sure they'll let the Space X IPO happen before end June then some 4th July euphoria with some pomp before they let a big crash occur.

Becoming mainstream locking funds and liquidity into underperforming funds. Most Bond market are all illiquid for their ridiculous market caps.

you can do it, baby 😂

Secondary impacts: Brazil, the world's largest #sugar producer and exporter, is expected to cut shipments in the 2026/27 season that starts in April by 14.2% as mills divert sugarcane to make ethanol due to high energy prices, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday. Source: Reuters

@DonDurrett ....and that's before the majority big bank view that gold will be $6000 by year end, plus they have been consistently conservative. I don't think they will trade at this discount for much longer.

Around $1400 per oz operating costs. Let's use 15% for energy. That is around $200 per oz. If energy prices rise 50% ($90 oil), then you get an $100 increase per oz. If energy prices rises 100% ($120 oil), then you get a $200 increase per oz. Then, if inflation kicks in, you can perhaps double those amounts. However, at $5,000 gold or higher, the margins will still be very high. 😉

@hajiyev_rashad I think silver might lead it.

My preferred scenario for gold price over the coming weeks...

@KingKong9888 Do we have a translation?

The Gold Foundation Plaque of #Darius the Great, a significant artifact from ancient #Persia (IRAN). Darius left foundation deposits like this one in the corners of his palace at Persepolis, stone boxes containing gold and silver tablets inscribed in three languages describing his empire's extent. The inscriptions list subject peoples from #Scythia to #Ethiopia, Ethiopia to India. What makes them unusual is their function: they weren't meant to be read. They were buried under the foundations, addressed to no living audience, written for the earth itself or for whoever might dig there centuries later. Darius was essentially leaving a message for archaeologists he couldn't have imagined #history #storia Via Massimo of Troy group on FB

@KingKong9888 I'm going even longer

I am holding. #Gold #Silver 🔥

@GroundedGoddess I you might mean bots

How many Labour shills can you spot? They're popping up like weeds on my feed 🤣

@Silverback82804 @Sorenthek I've got an order in for that - might hit it today!

Once again, just as in 2022, the West is selling ETF Gold and the east is buying it. This is a repeat.

@andre_minassian Yes, that would be a disaster. I'm still hoping and praying that this is extreme posturing - soo many lives could be lost. Let's hope for the sake of the world it doesn't happen.

@davuiw The time the US lands soldiers in Iran...could be as early as next week

Not saying this lightly...But Dow Jones 27,000 is very possible...cash in your retirement plans... Things are very bad.. The market is going to blow up. What to do as a trader ? Short the market and stocks imho

@adomount @AllisonPearson I don't

@AllisonPearson We all know the BBC loves it’s Islamic terrorists, refuses to call them terrorists, only reports terrorist propaganda and we fecking pay all their bills .

Former head of BBC Persian says BBC is failing to report the hatred of ordinary Iranians for Islamic Republic. Iranians welcome the bombing to get rid of the tyrants but “Ayatollah BBC” can’t say anything good about Israel or Trump. thetimes.com/article/eab7a8…

@Sorenthek ....and this time we're ready!

Doom is back