Ashley Greene

A tragedy, yes. A vote converter, maybe but not in the direction some conservatives are hoping for. Let’s be blunt, the campaign against Albanese, won’t shift the Labor vote in any meaningful way, and it won’t flip Australians who preference Labor ahead of the Liberals. Yes, plenty of Labor-leaning voters may hold grave concerns about the federal government’s response to the Bondi massacre. And yes, many also believe the Jewish community has carried an unbearable weight of hurt and trauma over the last two years. But the key question isn’t whether they’re angry. It’s who they blame, and whether that anger is strong enough to make them cross tribal lines. That’s where the modern electorate matters. We’re in an era of psychological sorting: voters are increasingly clustered into ideological ecosystems with their own media, moral cues, social networks, and “good vs bad” political identities. In that world, switching from Labor to Liberal isn’t just a good versus bad cop contest. For many voters it feels like an identity rupture. So when a crisis hits, most people don’t jump across the aisle, they move within their bloc, or they disengage if they are unhappy with the response. The May 3, 2025 federal election was a live case study. When progressive voters believed the Greens were drifting too close to ugly fringes, including tolerating, excusing, or courting antisemitic currents, they didn’t stampede to the Coalition. They consolidated around Labor. The most symbolic proof: Labor won Melbourne. So if Labor takes damage over Bondi, it won’t show up as a great Liberal conversion. It’ll show up as within-bloc consequences: 1. Softer enthusiasm and a nastier internal critique. This issue will make Labor’s vote softer but critically the softness is not a red v blue thing. 2. A fraction of Labor voters parking their vote elsewhere on first preferences, while still preferencing Labor ahead of Liberal. 3. In my personal opinion, the most likely long term outcome here. Disengagement, cynicism, switching off. Which is a critical issue for those within the Jewish community and their supporters. The loud noise by conservatives and others, could actually just turn people off because it’s coming across as ultra partisan.