@blueprintsmb22 Sheeple with zero original thought. Someone bought 16% of the greatest internet business in history for 5x earnings this week and these guys are buying shitty jobs for 6x…
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dcfdude
1.5K posts
dcfdude
@dcfdude
The NPV of a business is the sum of the discounted present value of all future memes about the business. Nothing here is advice - I’m not your mom.
Katılım Ağustos 2021
547 Takip Edilen654 Takipçiler
Still can't believe the bid for small businesses. Talked to a smart finance guy close to LOI on a $1mm+ SDE business under 5x with tons of hair. Despite putting in a decent equity check with a seller note, the DSCR will still be under 2x. He admits the margin for error is low but finding anything below 6x is hard right now
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@joinyellowbrick The real problem with the paid newsletters is that it’s contributed to the degradation of VIC
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This is no longer true for multiple reasons:
1) the number of investors willing to pay for written analysis is growing rapidly. You can earn high-tier analyst/low-tier PM money. (btw, investors at the 3 largest pods in the world use YB/CEO Watcher)
2) for many, it’s a stepping stone to running money or a professional analyst service (like Citrini). One of the best out there - @gatorcapital - said he would start today by writing online. A (seemingly) not so good investor raised $200M after starting as a paid blog.
3) the economics for non-US guys is a no-brainer. @david_katunaric can get paid 50k fake Croatian dollars to be an analyst at some firm or make 6-figures in real US dollars writing online
david@sdav1986
It’s very simple folks: nobody with real edge chooses a subscription business model over managing capital unless the newsletter is the business. Then there are only two possibilities: 1. They voluntarily choose to make less money because they enjoy writing and prefer the lifestyle. 2. They make way way more money from you suckers than they ever could getting involved in markets. It’s mostly 2.
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I know there are lots of idiosyncratic factors - but how can you read these articles along many similar others and feel positive about the US economy? wsj.com/business/retai…, wsj.com/personal-finan…, wsj.com/business/retai…
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@TMTLongShort Isn’t the solution to the birth rate crisis to just quadruple (or more) welfare programs for single mothers then? Let hypergamy nature do its thing and let the mid women raise kids fathered by fuckboys on their own with a good income level.
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The reason why I posted this is to frame why the rise of Alex Cooper and Clavicular has an unexpected and outsized impact on society.
The marketplace was so badly calibrated that by simply highlighting the value of the components underlying these variables at scale they are radically impacting how the genders are behaving.
It’s still under appreciated how out of hand the gender wars are likely to get over the next few years. The kids are not ok.
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort
Humans date based on a matrix of four core variables: Attraction Status Companionship Cost A lot of the discourse around the gender wars is a conflating of these variables and a poor understanding of how fluid the optimization function can be with the passing of time and change in environment. Many of the current societal constructs are operating on outdated marks on how much each of these variables is worth to the sexual marketplace. There is also a growing rift between revealed vs stated preferences in terms of which of these variables each gender cares about most. Society has been so heavily propagandized with the umbrella term of “love” that discourse is short circuited before any sort of resolution can be achieved as to how to fix the problem. Don’t get me wrong love is great and definitely exists for many. But it’s generally treated as an abstract concept instead of thoroughly analyzed to understand what drives it. And for a wide swath of the population there is now confusion as to why it’s seemingly much harder to find. (Sorry, I sound like a sociopathic Bryan Johnson right now)
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Incredible quote of CEO justifying his huge unforced error - which really just makes it worse...: "Listen, I bought my first shares in Avis in 2010. So I've been involved with this company for 16 years now. Back then, and you've covered us for a while, but the Avis said 129 million fully diluted shares outstanding. And since then, in my capacity as a large shareholder, a Board member, a CFO, I've been very consistent in my belief that our shares are undervalued and have advocated for buying back stock. So our shares outstanding today are 35 million shares. So we've retired [ 94 million ] or 73% of those original shares outstanding. I've not seen public companies reduce their share count by anything close to that order of magnitude. So we are true believers of this business. And on a fundamental basis, we were repurchasing our shares as high as $300 post-pandemic. So the thought of doing the opposite and issuing shares never entered my mind until this situation arose. Now you're right, we put an ATM in place because it'd be irresponsible not to. We've done this in the past as well, and we haven't issued any shares. So I'm not here to trade Avis for value extraction. We're going to put in the hard work and create value by building a better business. It might not be as flashy as making a quick buck, but that's the journey we're on, and we take pride in that." - Brian Choi 4/29/26
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They should make a movie about the $CAR short squeeze and spend 1/2 of the screentime showing the Avis board being the biggest sinners in the history of capitalism. Imagine your leveraged shitco stock nearly 10x'ing in a month with an active ATM and not issuing a single share.
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@unusual_whales 35% of Gen Z respondents admit to murdering a neighbor or using prescription medication before starting their workday, per VICE
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35% of Gen Z respondents admit to using substance, such as cannabis, alcohol, or prescription medication, before starting their workday, per VICE
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This actually makes a lot of sense as a use of private capital. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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I analyzed/mapped every SBA Loan issued since 1992 (2.1M Loans)
So much interesting data: sba.mazekalabs.com
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Dante's tenth circle of Hell would have been for Boards of Directors who don't sell a gazillion shares during short squeezes / meme frenzies / retail manias. $CAR can probably get off $1B of equity issuance at weighted avg price 3x+ what they traded for 30 days ago...if they hurry
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Three points for your consideration:
1) My understanding is software engineering jobs are up, not down. Have you seen evidence otherwise? More broadly, isn't it likely that demand for software engineers continue to roughly correlate with the total amount of software in the world? It’s hard to see the latter decreasing.
2) You're assuming these mass laid-off software engineers also become salespeople. But does the average engineer have sales skills or even the appetite for it? Or are they more likely to go find another steady paycheck somewhere?
3) In this wild west world of engineer-turned-sales hybrids, who's doing the buying? Is it still the same operations and technical procurement people with internal business champions, except now they're being asked to evaluate 2x-10x the options they already do? Most will just renew with the safe incumbent like they do now, especially if that incumbent can even remotely talk about how they've improved, right?
Here's an alternative scenario:
(a) executives suffering from AI psychosis burn internal time and resources exploring internalizing or switching, but ultimately stick with the incumbents - who themselves have become AI-fluent - when it becomes clear these distracting side quests don't actually improve their business, and
(b) new competitors proliferate and nip at the heels of incumbent vendors, finding some traction at the low end but almost none at the high end, though their existence makes price-increase conversations harder for one or two sales cycles.
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@dcfdude What do you think the software engineers who lost their jobs due to AI will be doing in a year's time? they will be taking incumbent's business by offering software at a fraction of cost. thousands of them all at once, with tailored products, fast iteration at 10% of cost.
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Been vibe coding something for a couple of weeks, and I don't even know what programming language I'm using. I'm amazed at how Cursor knows what I'm thinking before I even prompt for it. The best part is the customization and fast iteration. Incumbent SaaS is going to get picked apart. The vibe coded product will be a 10x better product at 10% of the existing cost. $IGV is overpriced. This chart is no where near distressed.
BuccoCapital Bloke@buccocapital
New format - ripped this one off the cuff Checking In On The SaaS Bear Case(s): Dispatches from another red day Link below
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In my opinion, the right way to think about these tools is that in 90% of cases, they replace crafting hobbies like woodworking that Boomers used to have when they were your age. I’m assuming your project falls in this category? It’s no doubt very fun and a pretty cheap hobby to enjoy, but has zero impact on software companies. The psychosis is in believing otherwise. In the 10% of cases where there is real commercial utility from these tools, the most notable impact is a proliferation of competitors who earn 90% GMs like all other software companies (although maybe much worse if compute expenses increase). As has always been the case, the companies with the best distribution will win. Nobody actually wants to build and maintain enterprise software internally when that isn’t their business. The incumbents that don’t adapt to new world with higher velocity and customization will lose, but the majority of incumbents will be fine.
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don't you get it? I am paying a third party to do it - it's Cursor. It's $60 bucks and i don't have to deal with miscommunication, lag and iteration. The end product is exactly what I want.
So far, I haven't skipped any sex with the wife yet, so that's a good sign i guess.
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