Peter Deans

A severe liquidity crisis in the private credit markets specifically the market for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) was the primary cause of the rapid collapse of Bear Stearns in March 2008. While Bear Stearns suffered from exposure to subprime mortgages, its failure was technically a liquidity run rather than a traditional insolvency issue initially, as the market lost confidence and refused to finance its assets. UBS just suspended withdrawals of their real estate fund for 3 years. Join the dots.

I think people still don’t get it, this isn’t an oil shock, this is the start of a supply chain fracture where energy becomes a weapon and allocation replaces free markets. If Hormuz stays unstable, Asia doesn’t just pay more, it loses industrial dominance, and that’s when capital runs hard into hard assets like gold while paper markets lag behind reality.

If the Strait of Hormuz situation doesn't get resolved in the next 2 weeks, half of the flights in Asia will likely get cancelled in the next 2 months. Australia and some Southeast Asia countries will get hit the hardest. Even if Aussie Airlines are willing to pay the premium it will take them 40+ days to arb in the jet fuel cargoes from Europe and US vs 15-16 days from Singapore and Korea which they usually import from. There is just no other way you can magically conjure up the jet fuel supply when Asia refineries can't produce them.

It doesn’t matter. The time to build all of these things is now. The idea that we produce oil and gas, but can’t refine it, forcing us to rely on foreign nations, is ridiculous. Not too long ago, Australia was a wealthy, resource rich nation that had total food and energy security. What happened?

Imagine being a hedge fund manager trying to price risk while the President sounds like he’s freelancing World War III from the toilet. Nobody knows what the plan is. There is no plan. The plan is vibes, caffeine, and one man screaming into his phone like the manager of a failing Atlantic City steakhouse. You open your brokerage app and everything is red, except oil and defense contractors, because of course. Of course. Every time civilization starts wheezing, Exxon walks out in a tuxedo with a martini and Lockheed buys another island. The Nasdaq looks like it got hit in the face with a folding chair because suddenly the market remembered that semiconductors do, in fact, require an operating global economy and not just TED Talk confidence and a black turtleneck. And Trump, God bless him, is tweeting like a guy who was handed six different war briefings, understood none of them, and decided to freestyle foreign policy from the toilet. “We may be winding down.” Great! “We may obliterate their power plants in 48 hours.” Fantastic! “Oil sanctions are off, but also maybe on, but also maybe we’re taking the island.” Beautiful. Just beautiful. This is why the market can’t price anything. You can’t build a discounted cash flow model around a national mood swing. There’s no Bloomberg terminal function for “presidential posting episode.” There’s no options chain for “what if the leader of the free world says three contradictory things before lunch and Brent crude goes vertical while JPMorgan analysts begin quietly chewing through their own ties.” The average investor is just sitting there like, “I bought an index fund because they told me it was safe.” Safe? SAFE? Your “safe” portfolio is now directly connected to whether some 28-year-old NSC staffer can stop a rage-post from becoming a missile exchange before the European open. That’s your diversification. Congratulations. You own a basket of companies whose earnings now depend on whether Hormuz is open and whether Trump has confused deterrence with posting. And Wall Street still does the same little dance every time. “Well, maybe this is already priced in.” Oh really? Already priced in? Was the possibility of a full-blown oil shock, shipping disruption, inflation resurgence, and presidential caprice “priced in,” Chad? Was it in the spreadsheet next to “soft landing” and “AI productivity miracle”? No, it wasn’t. What was priced in was endless delusion, infinite buybacks, and the belief that history had ended because the S&P had a nice quarter. Now everybody’s doing that thing they do where they act shocked that war affects markets. “Wow, yields are up. Wow, energy’s squeezing margins. Wow, rate cuts are less certain.” Yes, genius. That tends to happen when the world’s most important oil chokepoint turns into a live-action Call of Duty map and the White House communications strategy is basically drunk casino owner at 2 a.m. This is the real genius of the modern empire. It can’t build a train station, can’t balance a budget, can’t explain what victory looks like, but it can absolutely vaporize your 401(k) with a single weekend news cycle. That part works flawlessly. That part is incredible. The only truly efficient American institution left is panic transmission. We get chaos from the battlefield to your Robinhood account faster than Amazon gets paper towels to your porch. And the best part is that by Monday morning every idiot on television will sit there with perfect hair and say, “Markets dislike uncertainty.” Wow. Thank you, Socrates. What a contribution. They dislike uncertainty. Incredible analysis. We’ve spent billions on financial infrastructure just to reinvent the village idiot pointing at the sky going, “Storm bad.” That’s where we are. The market is a hostage, oil is a weapon, diplomacy is a hallucination, and the President is posting like a divorced nightclub owner who just found the nuclear football in a Denny’s booth. Everybody wants calm, nobody has control, and your portfolio is being managed by events that sound fake even when they’re real. Absolute clown planet. Premium clown planet. Goldman Sachs clown planet with institutional custody.

Vietnamese airlines are to raise ticket prices due to the ongoing fuel shortage. Vietjet is cancelling a large number of flights between Vietnam and Japan starting April.

I used to tell every operator to scale ad spend as fast as possible. Find a winner. Pour fuel. Go. I was wrong. Spent 3 years watching ecom brands — including my own — generate record revenue quarters while quietly hemorrhaging cash. Inventory ballooned. Returns spiked. The fulfillment infrastructure couldn't hold the weight. The right move isn't to scale fast. It's to scale when your cost structure can survive it. Revenue is easy to add. Contribution margin is hard to protect at speed. I'd rather run a $3M ecom brand at 35% margins than a $10M brand at 8%. Every time.