Deepak Sirwani

@aleabitoreddit What are five best conviction names that someone can buy today and hold for long?

Glad to hear it! I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD? 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month. The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH. Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe). But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.

@aleabitoreddit Can I ask you what’s your gender? It’s easier that way to refer to you while talking about you to friends

How am i getting 5,000 new subscribers every few days? Genuinely, what is this black magic? Can't believe I have 15,000 paid subscribers now... Well, my new goal is to be #1 on the entire X platform. Thank you all, I'll keep pouring out my thoughts to make that $1 worth it.

@aleabitoreddit Please keep doing this. I am just curious what’s your total portfolio size? If you keep generating returns like this (or even at 30% annual which is very modest by your standards); you will be worlds top 10 richest people in a 5-10 years. Is that your aim?

I'm just sharing my journey and thoughts. People give me too much credit, everyone takes their own trades. As for me... I finished the day up +1,337.81% YTD. $MSFT, $META and $RDDT beginning their recoveries today helped a bit. This is exactly why I believe if your ideas were genuinely good enough: You can make all your money going long on them in the markets. Instead of paywalling them for $2000+ a year then getting salty off others helping retail for free.

@aleabitoreddit Love what you are doing! I just hope you keep doing this for the next 2-3 years at least. We would all be very thankful to you. More power to retail :)

No. This type of BS mindset needs to stop. What I do is point them out to retail first before the 100-500%+ returns. US institutions like Point72 or Apollo would have bought them out eventually. 1. $IQE went up because they're sitting on the most latent merchant capacity in the world for InP reactors back at a 100M euro marketcap. While companies like Landmark were trading at $3.8B. They were also the supplier to $LITE, and photonics/epiwafer demand took off this year. 2. $SIVE went up because they had new deals with $JBL and O-Net. But they were already unknown as the laser supplier to $MRVL's CPO program when I first went long. American institutions like $AVGO would have likely just bought the company directly like what Qualcomm did with Alphawave over in the openlight side of things if I didn't bring attention to it. Then Swedish retail investors wouldn't get any of the upside. 3. $ALRIB went up because their earnings sent their P/E down to fwd 26, despite holding a duopoly in the MBE category with $VECO. This combined with new SiPH equipment, as well as $IQE + QD Laser (for quantum dot) being their customers. This was combined from raw information discovery of the decade that $MSFT Quantum was their buyer. You don't see direct hyperscaler frontier programs in quantum computing dependant on some <$1B MC company. 4. $SOI is up 208% because it has an unknown monopoly over SOI substrates for silicon photonics and CPO. This was more information synthesis combined with timing the bottom of their legacy cycle. 5. $RPI went up because of earnings and AI hardware usage. I was just the very first person to point it out. I projected 55% revenue growth compared to 14% from analysts. They did 58%. I just gave retail the chance to buy it before institutions. The stock would have gone up off of pure fundamentals without me posting my thesis because you don't do $511m in revenue off a $500m MC as a fabless company. I'm just giving retail the all the information discovery before institutions have a chance to find it and price it in. This is a completely different model than the same institutions telling you to buy index funds or stocks that already went up 1500% so you're exit liquidity.

I’m curious… With $AXTI, $IQE, or $SIVE. And the many other photonics winners I’ve longed like $LITE that returned 100-1000% over the past few months. When is it time for the salty folks out there to admit… That my thesis are just right after all. Instead of downplaying it? $20B+ companies like $TSEM don’t just move up 70% in 2 weeks, unless institutions validated the thesis and found it compelling. Same with $AXTI, it wouldn’t have ran from $450M MC to $3.85B MC unless institutions found it compelling. I just spot these before others do, and post information synthesis/discovery. In these cases, retail has clearly frontrun institutions and made life changing returns. If the thesis were wrong, institutions can take the other end of the trade. Which they don’t. Everyone on X keeps asking for the next 1000%. And when there’s someone out there on X that posts multiple (for free) ideas. Posts a clear directional trade before the price even moved. -> then they do ~10x like $AXTI: They’re met with slander instead? Ever stop to think… maybe the thesis/idea was right after all?

@IranPressp0k @grok is this true?

🚨 STRAIT OF HORMUZ — Who Can Pass? ✅ Countries ALLOWED: 🇮🇷 Iran 🇨🇳 China 🇮🇳 India 🇷🇺 Russia ❌ Countries ... See more

Rule of thumb for copy/terms/labels: • Want time to feel longer? Use length (“warranty for 5 years,” “12-year-old whiskey”) • Want time to feel shorter? Use years (“bought in 2013,” “return since 2021,” “rate until 2030”) Read:journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117… @UBCSauderSchool @Cornell

New research (JMR): Which whiskey would you pick — “Macallan 18 years old” or “Macallan 2007”? They’re exactly the same age. Read on (1/11)

Why it happens: years use large numbers (2015, 2030), lengths use smaller ones (5, 10, 15). With Weber’s law, equal changes feel smaller when numbers are large—and that shapes how far time feels. (10/11)

Even brands: A “20-year-old brand” feels older than “brand established in 2005.” We call this the year–length effect. (9/11)

More examples: “Bought 6 years ago” makes a used sofa feel older/less valuable than “bought in 2019.” “50% return in 4 years” feels worse than “50% return since 2021.” (8/11)

Length makes time feel longer: “10 years” feels farther than “since 2015” or “until 2035.” (7/11)

These describe the same interval, but they don’t feel the same. Across a large whiskey-auction dataset + multiple experiments, we find a clear pattern: (6/11)

People usually describe time in two ways: • Length: “10 years,” “for 5 years,” “bought 2 years ago” • Year/boundary: “since 2015,” “until 2030,” “bought in 2023” (5/11)

And it’s not just whiskey labels. The same pattern appears when people evaluate financial returns, choose mortgages, value used goods, and judge brand history. (4/11)

That’s the heart of our paper (with Tatiana Sokolova and Suzanne Shu): describing time differently can change what people choose and what they pay, even when the underlying interval is identical. (3/11)

Yet across our data, people consistently think the “18 years old” bottle is older—and are willing to pay about 9% more for it in real whiskey auctions. (2/11)

Patrick Collison says humanity has never cured a complex disease. Not cancer. Not Alzheimer’s. Not Type 1 diabetes. His Arc Institute is trying something new: Simulate biology with AI. Test interventions before touching the body. Build a virtual cell. Test hypotheses in code. If it works, biology becomes computable.

feels wrong that someone who was 45 in 2000 is now 70