IRResistible CAGRs🍁

For the next time I forget, there is no price too low for value stocks and no price too high for growth stocks.

Prior to the Iran war Japan basically proved that you don't need to hike rates to bring inflation back down because market supply forces are deflationary... A point ignored by virtually everyone.

@atelicinvest Two different ways of saying price drives narrative.

@deepvalueco Wait til you find out how many fundamentals focused investors are closed chart readers

I often find it interesting how many quality investors are actually momentum investors.

The stock is flat over the last five years but the multiple has come down by 50% (half what it was before) I love those things... And hate those things. Feels within 2 years or 25% of a great potential buy.

That said, much respect to them for not buying back stock a few years ago at silly valuations.

Feel like $CPRT should be pretty interesting here, 16x earnings ex cash and a historical compounder facing short term headwinds. But feels like the cash pile is more likely a structural annoyance/drag on returns rather than a lever.

Kospi $EWY with the steady compounding at 9% CAGR over the last 26 (pre-dividend) Falls 40% Goes up 600% Flat for 18 years More than doubles in 1 year

Can we take a minute to talk about how any software that can easily be replaced by AI can easily be replaced by AI.

Ticks on a top position are 3% wide ... Makes me feel deeply unserious

@kernow_bull @compoundpapi @tbonecapital There's a long list of things they need to achieve, each of which I think can make the stock go up a bit. Data center sale being likely the 1st. I don't know that I have the same top end scenarios as Recursive but in other ways I think he's being cautious.

@deepvalueco @compoundpapi @tbonecapital Wen CCOI up? Appreciate recurve’s bullishness, but I wonder if emotion has gotten ahead of him…

Dollarama $DOL.TO bought back 1.7M shares in April Down here at 20x forward EV/EBITDA 18 month payback, capital light growth is great...

Part of the reason I don't find the mark aggressive is that if you model comparable growth to this disappointing level, you could see them get 15-20% of today's value in cash distributions over the next 2 years.

15% growth Can return +100% of FCF Feels like it's not that much of a disaster but clearly it is.

Soft L4L from Action for 3i, 2.4% in May drag from France & Germany Stake up to 65.4% £750M buyback announced

The hope is for my portfolio to be at X in 5 years. If everything works, it could be 2X. But it won't so I need redundancy.

@taobanker Early days for Lending as a Service

I'm starting to be a real believer in BNPL. will be a megatrend like no one is imagining now. I'm sure there will be plenty of ramps and drops along the way though.

@MWG_Jamie Always TBD on the magnitude of the cycle but I agree there are a number of near bottom cycle dynamics showing up.

@deepvalueco They are reducing prices further this year and expect the market to increase prices. Gap should widen and share should grow. I think they did 20% compassion in Benelux in 2023 and it was post Russia recovery and a competitor bankruptcy that drove it.

@aledade3 I think there's macro factors that add sometimes and reduce other times to what is a general trend.

@deepvalueco In hindsight seems clear that the company was overearning post-COVID. Seems like mean reversion to me. Will probs still grow MSD over the LT.

So Dynacor is at 6x earnings and targeting to multiply production... Ok.