DeFAI Scope

@cryptogoos They're not rejecting the chip they're rejecting the leach

🚨 Jensen just confirmed it: the H200 has a license to ship to China. The most advanced chip America was willing to export. China says NO so far. Beijing doesn't want it. China is done depending on $NVDA. They're building their own stack: → Huawei Ascend → SMIC at 7nm → Cambricon AI accelerators → CXMT scaling DDR5 Every day they catch up faster.

@krugman87 Cash on sidelines always finds its way in eventually.

Imo, the stock market is nowhere near a top. AAII sentiment last week moved significantly more bearish even as the Dow Jones hit a fresh all time high. Truely baffling behavior, but the exact thing you see in healthy bull markets, not at tops. The best thing for bulls is Trump and Iran never actually come to an agreement. That'll keep a huge portion of the market sidelined and stocks pumping to fresh highs every week.

@brian_armstrong The tech is ready; the real bottleneck is political will.

Major areas where the financial system still needs an update: 1. Tokenization of real-world assets - Real estate, stocks, bonds, funds, etc. onchain for instant settlement, fractional ownership & massive distribution. 2. 24/7 Global trading - Pooled global liquidity, every asset, every person, with great leverage and capital efficiency. 3. Next-gen payments - Near-instant, low-cost global transfers using stablecoins, including for Agentic payments. 4. AI-powered risk, credit, compliance, and advice - Better decisions, less fraud, and broader access to capital. Everyone gets access to a great financial advisor. 5. Innovation friendly regulation - Move from one-size-fits-all to risk-based rules that encourage innovation and competition instead of stifling it. 6. Expanded access - Open protocols that reduce middlemen and self-custodial wallets to expand access to everyone with a smartphone. 7. Capital formation - Low cost and turnkey for anyone to raise money for a good idea, increasing the number of startups. 8. Sound money - A refuge from inflation, when discipline is lost in fiat money. Jobs not done until we get these working for all. Will require lots of tech innovation and policy work to get there.

@PhyrexNi 疲惫也是博弈的 部分，但趋势永远是赢家。

现在的情绪有点复杂，高兴的是自己的直觉是对的，美国和伊朗果然再次纠结起来，而在 WTI 的低点我清空了所有做空，但郁闷的是美国和伊朗的反复已经让市场开始疲劳了，尤其是 WTI 的价格从 4月7日 临时停火到现在已经经历了三次这样的大起大落了，市场感觉就像无头苍蝇一样被所谓的“谈判”牵着鼻子走。 但我从趋势上来看，不论是市场还是 WTI 本身都对“和谈”这件事有很明确的信心，无非就是时间问题，虽然现在已经有两次失败的经验，但 WTI 的价格从临时停火到现在走的就是下行通道，两次失败的谈判但把 WTI 的价格已经打下来一些了，这也是市场期望看到的。 周一是美国的假期，美股不开盘，所以周一也能继续缓和一下，不过周一 CME 开盘，对于油价可能会有些震荡，周五闭盘的时候 WTI 的价格是将近 97 美元，市场可能会对这个价格重新评估了。 回到 Bitcoin 的数据来看，虽然很多小伙伴并不关心，但我还是要说，目前 $BTC 的价格仍然是和美国的政治，经济和宏观密切相关的，在美股不开盘的日子，这三个数据就是 Bitcoin 最好的价格指导，而并不应该是涨了看涨，跌了看跌的思路，更应该关注的是这三个信息。 #Bitget 来了就是VIP！Crypto、美股、CFD，全球先机一站布局

@Krystal_Eth 这个观察有道理，但选择偏差很严重 游手好闲等待时机的人里，成事的是极少数，大多数只是游手好闲 历史只记录了那些后来真的干出事的人

读历史会发现一个规律 干大事的人在低谷期 蹭吃蹭喝、游手好闲都行 但绝不会去打螺丝端盘子扛钢筋 就算要工作 也一定选清闲自由的 因为谋划大事需要长时间思考 身心俱疲大脑麻木的人 想不了任何事

@tmel0211 3点

Bankless联创清仓 $ETH 、Harvard短暂持仓后清仓，以太坊基金会研究员离职.....以太坊算是来到了至暗时刻了吧？噢，不对，几年前的 $SOL 跌到10刀以下的时候，Solana is Dead的FUD声音更强烈，大V叛逃，机构清仓、资金外流，这是一个币种周期性底部的必经之路。其实大可不必： 1）ETH价格还在 2000美刀以上，还稳居主流币老二，还没有意外黑天鹅到FUD至死的程度，现在的FUD更多是市场对其预期过大，而在本周期得不到兑现的不满情绪，和其基本盘其实没太大关系； 2）以太坊在发展Layer2生态、Staking、再质押、账户抽象、dAI等叙事方向确实有太大的历史失败包袱，生产了一批批没有PMF落地的叙事，但生态凋零的同时以太坊主链越来越安全、轻量、迭代速度快、稳定了。这让其后续在RWA、资产代币化、dAI等叙事预期上其实更强劲了，完全没必要过度唱衰； 3）当下市场主要还在讲资金交易效率的故事，所以Hyperliquid成为了这一周期的黑马，但 $HYPE 成功不代表ETH的失败。本质上，而这完全属于不同赛道，HYPE凭借对场外增量资金的吸引力和链上纳斯达克的叙事成了当红炸子鸡，但当CLARITY法案立法之后，TradFi和DeFi全面融合之后的下一程呢？以太坊这样完全去中心化且安全、开放、透明的协议最终会成为意识形态不同的大资金沉淀和活跃的不二选择，所以，不要急，让子弹飞一会儿。

@silverfang88 费率问题是真实的障碍 但"正常美股用户"本来就不是目标用户 链上股票现在解决的是那些根本进不了正常美股账户的人，地域限制、合规障碍、出金困难 对那群人来说，-30%的费率仍然比没有选择要好

我觉得吹现阶段链上股票的都是赌狗 因为美股费率年化起步-30%以上 不会有任何正常美股的用户 长期在这里玩的 嘻嘻 那咋办呢

@ai_xiaomu 生产率提升但议价能力没提升，这两件事同时发生才是真正的问题 工具成本自己扛，效率收益被公司拿走，这不是AI特有的，是所有技术变革里打工人的标准处境 只是这次速度快到让人还没反应过来就已经发生了

你们有没有觉得，用了AI后，收入没增长，开销却变大了？ 楼主和评论的真实账本： Claude/Cursor 订阅：$50-$220/月 多个API中转/羊毛 token：$20-$50/月 各种 Skill / Plugin 折腾时间换算：$200+/月 很多程序员的真实状态： 用AI后效率提升30-50% 但工资没涨（公司算账：你是用AI的人，理应这样） 自己的工具开销反而每月多了 $100-$300 AI红利的分配是错位的—— 公司：用AI 砍人 → 利润增长 程序员：用AI 提效 → 工资不涨 AI公司：收订阅 → 收入暴涨 打工人不仅没拿到红利，还成了AI公司的现金奶牛。

@zengying1107 沪爷买的不是收益率，买的是本地资产配置的安全感和政策信任 逻辑不一样，所以比较收益率有点偏 但东京那边的数字确实难反驳

听朋友说，上海市中心的投资回报率2已经很优秀了，这么看来东京、大阪的房子真是太香了，我没有一套房产投资回报率是低于5的，而且利率还贼低，这两年买的房子有的价格还翻倍了… 买上海房子，买的是什么呢。 还是沪爷真就是钱多没地方用😂

the asymmetry argument is real the part that gets skipped is "easily rebuild" assumes your skills and network survived intact losing money young is recoverable, losing years to the wrong risks while watching the window narrow is harder to undo

bitcoin being the risk-off canary while the Nasdaq hits ATH is the part nobody has a clean explanation for usually they rhyme the decoupling either means bitcoin is early on something breaking, or it's lost its correlation narrative permanently either way it's telling you something, just not obviously what

Doomers are telling me the worst recession in 17 years is loading. Gold bugs are telling me price is going to $100,000 an ounce. The real estate market says no one wants to buy a house at these prices. The bond market says the economy is shit. The AI bubble looks like it will never pop. SpaceX, Open AI and Anthropic are all going public at the top of the market. The SPX is at 7,500. The Nasdaq is at all time highs. The Dow Jones is over 50,000. Despite all this… Bitcoin is still down nearly -40% from the all time highs. Nothing makes sense anymore.

why i am so bullish on crypto, in "defense of the ideological"- i recently watched the video of the first public appearance for jensen and elon together, which was at GTC 2015 more than ten years ago. by this time, jensen had already made his iconoclastic bet on parallel graphics processing for over twenty years, and on CUDA since 2006. musk had his hassabis moment in 2012. yet openAI was not yet founded (would be ~9 months later), and GDX-1 would be announced at GTC the following year too this is that narrow window where a revolution is visible to some but not others, in which both of these geniuses had early inklings of recognizing AIs pervasive potential, but the broad public was not yet made aware. it would take another 10 years for it reach mainstream applications of course i broadly think of the crypto industry being the same place today. just as there were brilliant minds who understood the revolution that would come from the GPU paradigm, there was simply no large scale consumer demand that required its objective superiority for decades to come. instead, it was picked up by hobbyists (ie gamers) who enjoyed a sense of self-determination by pushing the boundaries of their passion, tinkering, sharing, and researching. in a rather strange way, gamers subsidized AI's development, just like early defi subsidized the institutional tokenization development. during the GTC 2015 interview, elon tells jensen something interesting: the 0-10 mph autonomous driving is very easy to solve because the car can be stopped. the 50+ mph zone is also easy to solve because there are rules of engagements at that speed that dont have as many randomness. the hardest part to solve is actually the 10-50mph, what i call the "the middle game" where a car in an urban setting with bikes, children, cones, manholes, create all kinds of need for precision and speed that sensors today need to develop further. it's fundamentally solvable, but this is the most challenging portion of fulfilling the dreams of autonomous driving this is where crypto is today. the 0-10mph was easy because people can understand why permissionless money is useful from a practical sense to start developing. the 50mph+ will also be really easy because by that point, onchain capital markets is going to be so obvious that you could never go back with all the benefits of self custody, capital efficiency, money velocity/rest optimizations. but its the 10-50 thats hard, where money in a pre-internet financial infrastructure is hitting AML/KYC, offshore capital conduits, discretionary bank risk models, lagging reporting regimes create all kinds of need of need for precision and speed that institutional infrastructure today needs to develop further. its fundamentally solvable, but this is the most challenging portion of fulfilling the dreams of onchain capital markets i love bitcoin. but contrary to some opinion, i believe its possible to love crypto too, because bitcoin is a monetary experiment enabled by the evolution of technology, while most of crypto is the inverse: a technology experiment enabled by the evolution of money. they are fundamentally solving different problems, though rooted in one ideal: to make its access as much of a public good as possible this is why crypto is going to be such an important force for the future during this "narrow window" for those can can see it. and while most early pioneers got into the game because of the ideology behind decentralization, it's time to admit that the winning ideology is technological financialization: it is hyperfinancialization with elements of decentralization that exports sovereign finance as a public good, decentralizes agentic rails for humanity as a public good, promote self-determination as a public good. this is worth fighting for, and im excited to recommit my focus to these ideals that began my crypto journey. this "middle game" period will be remembered as the most critical juncture for the industry and for anyone who is doubting the industry at this time, i hope reading this helps you reanchor your beliefs for what you are actually fighting for, and more importantly, know that you can play a meaningful part in the revolution too the future belongs to those who recognized it was always ideological

@yidabuilds "有真收入，大概"这个省略号说明了问题 收入是真的，倍数是信仰 2000年那批公司也有真收入，问题从来不是有没有收入，是市场愿意给多少倍

2026 年 AI IPO 潮来了 OpenAI 估值 8500 亿到 1 万亿 SpaceX 估值 1.75 万亿，AI 算力业务撑起来的 Anthropic 在谈 9000 亿估值的新一轮 三家加起来快 4 万亿美元 2000 年互联网泡沫巅峰时全球网公司总市值也差不多这个水平 当然这次有真收入。。。大概

@king1818888 豆包背靠字节，字节最懂用户留存 不是模型最好，是产品、分发、推送全部一体化 国内用户选AI的逻辑更接近选App，不是选模型 国外用户有足够的信息渠道去比较能力差距，国内的信息环境让这个比较成本高很多，豆包先占了心智就很难被替换

为什么中美用户用AI大模型的差别这么大？ 国外用户特别务实：ChatGPT、Claude、Gemini，谁强用谁，谁厉害切换谁 但在国内，不管 DeepSeek、Qwen、Kimi、Minimax 哪个模型更牛，大多数人还是主要用豆包 这到底是为什么？

@LmhdbAi 这倒不奇怪 原生家庭幸福、自己又顺利的人，通常不需要用婚姻去解决资源问题 愿意接受这个条件的，往往恰好是生活里有缺口需要填的人 这位大哥想要的两件事，本身就是反向筛选的

听朋友讲了个事，一个净资产过亿的大哥，单身，想找二十五左右年轻漂亮的女生，发现不难，但是，但是想找个原生家庭幸福、学业工作顺利的姑娘，却难如登天

@RealHanyaHu 第4点才是真正的解法，其他几条都是辅助 每一代模型推理成本下降的速度如果快过收入增长的速度，单位经济才会最终转正 IPO的时间压力让他们必须在公开市场之前让这条曲线开始弯折

OpenAI 每赚 $1 收入，就亏损 $1.22 💸 这生意，越做越亏，这游戏，能玩多久？ 那解法是什么？ 1️⃣ 涨价 —— API、ChatGPT Plus 继续提价，让用户买单 2️⃣ 砍成本 —— 自研芯片替代英伟达，省掉天价算力费 3️⃣ To B 规模化 —— 企业合同才是真正现金流，散户不够用 4️⃣ 等模型效率提升 —— 每一代模型推理成本都在降，靠时间换空间 5️⃣ 赌 AGI 变现 —— 一旦 AGI 实现，定价权在自己手里，游戏规则全变 本质上，这是一场烧钱换时间的豪赌。

@0xphilo 资产在哪个法律体系里就受那个体系的规则约束 这是最基本的判断，不是立场问题 流动性和资产保护是两件事，但在管控环境下它们会同时消失

为什么要把钱放在美股里面 因为在国内钱不是钱，这部分钱没有抗风险能力和流动性 你拿在岸的cny万一哪天有政策 你的资产全部归零 而且没有流动性你跑不出去的 好事情也轮不到你

@wadezone 每个员工对应的估值差距比数字还疯狂 但这两个公司根本不在同一个估值逻辑里 京东卖的是履约能力，人就是产品 Anthropic卖的是模型护城河，人是研发成本不是规模优势 一个是劳动密集型，一个是智识密集型，市场给的倍数天然就不同

这个世界就是这么疯狂 Anthropic公司估值高达 3800 亿美元，员工不到 5000 人，五年前成立。 京东市值 440 多亿美元，将近 100 万员工。

@xianzhe9527 止盈纪律有了，但"大趋势全面向下"的判断标准是什么 这个定义如果不提前写清楚，实际执行的时候很容易变成情绪决策

投资纳斯达克怎么止盈？我是这样干的。 每赚20%，平仓一半，再继续定投。 每次赚20%，就保持半仓，重新定投。 还记得2000年互联网泡沫，纳指回撤70％以上。 2008年回撤56%，所以一定要止盈。 同时在大趋势全面向下时，削减大部分仓位，保持20-30%仓位，同时暂停定投。 并增加黄金，债劵对冲。 资产组合，纳指30%，黄金30%，债劵

@williamlong 合规路径和违规路径之间的关键差异就是这个 外汇用途申报，不是持有美股本身 所以问题从来不是"能不能买"，是"钱怎么出去的"

中国内地公民（境内个人）直接购买美国股票，在法律层面并没有被明确禁止，关键问题在于个人外汇的用途，如果通过每年5万美元结汇去炒美股，有可能违法《个人外汇管理办法》，但如果是境外上市公司员工通过持股计划、期权等方式炒美股，就不会违反《个人外汇管理办法》。