Fred de Fossard
9.4K posts
@defossardf
British Prosperity | @prosperity_inst | 🦁 🇬🇧 🏹 | Views own, naturally
As a French person, which team are we supposed to support now...? 🇪🇸🏴🇦🇷
*EXCLUSIVE with @ChaplainChloe @EllenAMilligan* Andy Burnham will be told by senior civil servants on Monday that he faces a worsening economy, rising borrowing costs and interest rate hikes in his first six months as PM. He’ll also be warned there could be an oil price shock if the Iran war escalates and new pressure from Donald Trump to provide UK military support. Burnham will receive updated economic forecasts from the Treasury on his first day in office that will paint a challenging picture, according to people familiar with the preparations for the transition of power. It’ll be an immediate reality check that complicates his promise to quickly deliver change for Britons. The latest internal Treasury forecasts produced in recent days have revised inflation upwards to 3.2% for Q4 2026, the people said. If a US-Iran ceasefire isn’t quickly restored that’ll get worse and oil could rise to $150 a barrel, they show. Either way, the Treasury will tell Burnham they see gilt yields rising further and at least one Bank of England interest rate hike by the end of the year, the forecasts will show. It means increased borrowing costs at a time when Burnham is considering how to fund a suite of potentially expensive policies. The impact on prices will be most acute on energy and food, according to the forecasts, and Britain also faces supply chain problems with jet fuel, leading officials to warn air fares will rise. It will all add to pressure on Burnham to offer more generous cost-of-living support as an early top priority. Senior civil servants will advise Burnham that he could face pressure from Trump to deploy British military assets in support of the US blockade. There is no expectation he will agree. Officials will also warn Burnham that in the event a lasting peace deal is agreed between the US and Iran, he will have to decide whether to implement plans made by Starmer and Macron to deploy the military to lead a Hormuz de-mining mission. Britain is also facing an increased risk of cyber attacks from Iran and Russia, officials will tell Burnham, posing another danger to the economy. Burnham will be advised he’ll need to work to maintain Britain’s leadership role on Ukraine, starting by building a personal relationship with Volodymyr Zekensky. Burnham will be told that much of the UK’s foreign policy is conducted at leader level and that he will be integral to ensuring Trump’s currently relatively favorable position toward Kyiv holds, as well as leading western allies on military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Access talks so far have proved challenging because Burnham has yet to decide key cabinet and No10 appointments, meaning civil servants have been unable to directly prepare incoming ministers. The lack of transparent preparation ahead of the changeover is prompting a mounting sense of anxiety across the civil service, several officials said. One dismissed as impossible the suggestion Burnham could hold a mega-budget in the autumn which would include spending plans for departments as well as fiscal measures. The person said the spending review, usually scheduled for the Spring, relied on months of negotiations with departments and said it would not be feasible for this to be hashed out in three months. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
A very modern form of corruption. Expanding the law to allow further plundering of the public purse and wider economy for the benefit of the legal class of which you are part of.
Haven't seen it mentioned, but these cuts are another casualty of our mad energy regime. Particle physics is v energy intensive, and large facilities at Harwell such as ISIS and the Diamond Light Source are particularly so. All earmarked for closure if cost pressures do not ease.
Today Labour’s Gibraltar surrender deal - announced today with no debate - has once again undermined British sovereignty, repeating the mistakes of the Windsor Framework and the Chagos debacle. The terms of the deal are shocking: Spanish officials will now conduct border checks within Gibraltar. Spain can withdraw individuals’ residency in Gibraltar, even if they already live there. Goods sold in Gibraltar must comply with EU regulations. Gibraltar is now subject to a new ‘transaction tax’ to align it with the EU. And Gibraltar must adopt new EU laws or the agreement will automatically be terminated. The practical effect is that foreign officials will decide who and what can enter British territory. British citizens’ fingerprints will be taken and passports checked within our own territory. At the same time, Spain has conceded nothing about its claim to Gibraltar. No self-respecting British government should be willing to accept this. To make matters worse, Parliament and the British public have only seen the final text of this deal today, but it takes effect tomorrow. Labour have shut us out of this process and are avoiding scrutiny. A Reform Government will stand up for our national interest and overturn this one-sided, disgraceful deal. There can be no shared sovereignty between Britain and Spain. Gibraltar is British, not Spanish, and that is how it must remain. This is not up for negotiation or dilution by a thousand individual concessions. And there must be no border between Gibraltar and the United Kingdom. Spanish or EU border and customs officials must not be allowed to operate in Gibraltar, or have a say in who and what can enter our territory. Border security cannot be built on conceding control to a foreign government. gov.uk/government/col…
Earlier today I paid tribute to Ann Widdecombe, called for more civility in political debate and for further action to tackle hate propagated online.
Spain expected to regularise 500,000 illegals. Think tanks expected 800,000. Now they think (including relatives) there are 3 million. The EU funded Measuring Irregular Migration (MIrreM) project thought there were 2.6-3.2 million illegals in 🇦🇹🇧🇪🇫🇮🇫🇷🇩🇪 🇬🇷🇮🇪🇮🇹🇳🇱🇵🇱🇪🇸🇬🇧 combined.
La Policía eleva a 3 millones los inmigrantes regularizados con sus familias #Echobox=1784006386" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">elmundo.es/espana/2026/07…
🏹 Britain can restore free speech. Prosperity Institute's latest paper, Reversing Britain's Free Speech Recession, sets out a practical plan to strengthen free expression and reverse decades of growing restrictions. Watch barrister @JonHolb explain the findings 👇
Labour plans to withhold benefits to people who have been granted Indefinite Leave to Remain. Performative cruelty and total cowardice. That’s why the Greens will replace Labour.
‘We have skewed the whole political culture, people don’t feel free to express their non-woke views.’ Barrister Jon Holbrook discusses his paper for the Prosperity Institute, arguing that the law has gone too far in restricting free speech. 📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604
