
Derek Moaters
206 posts
























I'm a former defense attorney and currently a civil liberties attorney with no political dog in this fight. I watched the video at least 10 times from different angles and at different speeds and waited to offer an opinion, which I still reserve the right to change if additional information changes the calculus. It is very clear that the officers instigated the confrontation. The woman initially tried to wave them past her. ICE officers have no authority to search a US citizen or arrest her (unless there's probable cause to believe she's harboring undocumented individuals, not a contention here). A woman surrounded by masked, armed men who have no law enforcement authority over her has every right to try to escape. Video shows her steering wheel is turned to the right, clearly an attempt to leave WITHOUT hitting anyone and steer clear of the officer standing towards the front of her car. That officer had time to step to the side, which is where he was when he shot her. Even a real police officer would not have the right to shoot at her for trying to flee. This is well-established in the case law; deadly force may not be used simply to prevent someone from getting away. Given that the ICE officers had no law enforcement authority to begin with, AND the video footage shows she was trying to escape a perceived threat, not to kill anyone, the crime is all the more inexcusable. I'm praying for the victim's family, especially her children. I'm also praying for all the conservatives who are so unprincipled and lost they're excusing this terrible crime, and gloating over a death that will leave three young children motherless, because of the victim's politics.



@GMHikaru @VBkramnik PhD mathematician and former math professor here. I am a 2100-2200 rated blitz player on LiChess -- I am quite sure I could get a streak of 100 or more against players rated 1500 or below. As a professional and one of the premier blitz players on the planet, the gap between Hikaru and a 2300 is even larger than between me and a 1500. When you're that much better than your opponents, these streaks are not that hard. In fact, it would be harder to believe Hikaru wouldn't have these streaks. If a streak is defined to have ended with a draw or loss, then Hikaru just needs to count his draws and losses while farming to determine his total number of streaks. If he is 512 ELO higher than an opponent (opponent ELO = 2300), this corresponds to a 95% chance of winning. In this case, on average, one out of every 168.9 streaks will be of length 100 or longer (probability of streak = 0.005921) and one out of every 13 streaks will be 50 wins in a row or longer (probability of streak = 0.07694). With a higher ELO difference, these streaks will become more common. That's what theory says. I followed up this theoretical work by writing a short computer program in C to simulate these results using a random number generator to generate wins or non-wins, with a win set at 95% probability. I ran the program for 10,000,000 (10 million) simulates win-streaks. The distribution followed theory fairly closely. 769776 of the streaks were 50 or longer, or 7.698% (1-in-13). And 57609 of the streaks were 100 wins or longer, for 0.576% (1-in-173). Finally, 295 of the streaks were 200 wins in a row or longer, with the longest win-streak coming in at length 310. I want to finish by saying that this is Freshman-level probability and statistics. There is absolutely nothing complicated about these computations. The computer program I wrote can easily be written by a student with a one-quarter course on coding. The overarching fact is that long win streaks are a normal artifact of ELO farming.










