@TheShortBear That’s very true, short selling is only good until you blow up in one trade. Many large caps had wild ride like sndk mu SOXL etc. many people must have gone broke.
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Dev
802 posts
Seeing a lot of people being mad about locates.
Locates go through similar cycles.
Players become bigger, they either graduate to bigger liquidity pool or blow up.
If a player stays in the space there is very very high likelihood of a blowup, upon which locates will be easier once more.
If you think you can make unlimited money in small caps shorting and seemingly winning on everything, you are looking at players leaning right against the fat tail distribution, in short they are borrowing profits against an exponentially increasing blowup risk.
It works very well until 1 takes you out.
This game is one that takes most players out in the end, especially those that rise through the ranks way faster than the rest.
Sound compounding is the only free great gift to humanity, try and trick it and you will get the bill eventually.
Coming from someone that has seen about 10 9fig traders trade as the top dog in small caps and seen most blow up or near blow up before the strategies got adjusted and strategies were deleted.
Each had their time, each thought they were different, almost all blew up 70%+ of their account on one trade, some ending completely wiped.
Getting off before the steamroller, if thats the path that is tried, is probably one of the hardest thing to do of all.
In good times there is no reason to stop, in bad times there only is reasons to continue.
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Momentum leader - reverting to mean.
Popular choice of Levels
1. MA
2. Fib
3. Bollinger
Monis@mmonis
Mean reversion is one of those quiet, built-in rules of the universe that shows up everywhere in nature, like gravity or the way water always finds its level. At its heart, it's super simple: when something swings way too far from what's "normal" for it, the world tends to gently (or sometimes not-so-gently) pull it back toward its average over time. Now in stocks - "The Mean" definition differs, Some use MA, others rely on Fibs, a few prefer VWAP or AVWAP, and a few use standard deviation (Bollinger bands). The choice is yours It is important to realize one of the most fundamental principles of nature, and the stock market is no different
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@mmonis @Stan_chentsov1 This doesn’t work always in small stocks, but it does in large caps
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Mean reversion is one of those quiet, built-in rules of the universe that shows up everywhere in nature, like gravity or the way water always finds its level.
At its heart, it's super simple: when something swings way too far from what's "normal" for it, the world tends to gently (or sometimes not-so-gently) pull it back toward its average over time.
Now in stocks - "The Mean" definition differs,
Some use MA, others rely on Fibs, a few prefer VWAP or AVWAP, and a few use standard deviation (Bollinger bands). The choice is yours
It is important to realize one of the most fundamental principles of nature, and the stock market is no different
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@blackhousecap @Mr_Derivatives HAHAHA ! Also, in that picture, cheapest Maggy 7 was $META, not $MSFT.
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So you're saying people pay Bill millions in fees to do exactly what you told all your followers regarding undervalued and underperforming Mag7s in $MSFT and $META?
And we getting a little humor along the way? AND ITS FREE?!
He probably just has this printed and posted on his desk
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Be like Bill Ackman. And just rotate between the cheapest Maggy 7’s until it is not cheap anymore, then find the next one…
Right now he is lovin’ Microsoft and Meta.
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The cause for the biggest melt up in stock market history will be AI.
The cause for a large stock market drop later will be AI.
Agree or agree to disagree?
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@TheShortBear @ConnorJBates_ I want to ask you a genuine question, this market rally must have fucked up many people. You name include Bear - short seller. Which sided bias would you prefer people to follow ? One wrong short can wipe out whole capital. And market have aa kinds of movement to fuck us.
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Luck has surface area.
The more you try, speak, build, share, prep, review, think, work... the larger the surface luck has to collide with.
Most people don’t succeed because they bat 100%.
They succeed because they take thousands of swings instead of dozens.
Then add the dedication to show up each day and work on prep and review... showing up every day long enough to improve the batting average/odds.
Luck isn’t static.
It compounds around action, repetition, and grit.
The so called market wizards almost all, 95%+ blew up, with multiple years of trial and error before they got lucky.
In that sense, compounding is the universe’s way of scaling luck.
Liftoff takes the most, enormous energy.
Escaping gravity takes continuous focused energy.
But once trajectory and escape velocity are achieved, compounding does much of the heavy lifting with risk systems in place.
The hardest part is surviving long enough to reach that phase. The light at the end of the tunnel, small and dim but there yet.
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NEVER BUY A 16GB RAM LAPTOP IN 2026
NEVER BUY A 16GB RAM LAPTOP IN 2026
NEVER BUY A 16GB RAM LAPTOP IN 2026
NEVER BUY A 16GB RAM LAPTOP IN 2026
NEVER BUY A 16GB RAM LAPTOP IN 2026
NEVER BUY A 16GB RAM LAPTOP IN 2026
NEVER BUY A 16GB RAM LAPTOP IN 2026
go ahead and ignore this
you’ll regret it !!!
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@devang_madhani These are the stocks with strong fundamentals and momentum.
There can be a better pick, but these I can trade with eyes closed
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@rip_trader No, it can consolidate and suck our money due to decay as well. Music stop doesn’t mean silence getting louder.
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Is anybody thinking to buy $SNDQ at some point music has to stop right?
$MU $SNDK $MRAM
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$SOX Semiconductor Index
On the weekly timeframe, there have only been two times when SOX had successive weekly closes above the 2 StdDev Bollinger Band with this kind of price acceleration.
But there has never been a stretch with 5 consecutive weekly closes above 2 StdDev… not even during the dot-com era… until last week.
The last multi-week extension like this was Nov 2021, when SOX closed above 2 StdDev for 3 straight weeks. The market topped roughly 2 months later, and SOX eventually dropped -45% over the following year.
$SOX Feb 2000 - Mar 2000 (6 weeks before the top)
(Trough to peak: +77%)
Week 1: +16%
Week 2: +5%
Week 3: +2.6%
Week 4: +10.2%
Week 5: +17.3%
Week 6: +10%
$SOX Mar 30, 2026 → May 8, 2026 (last 6 weeks)
(Trough to peak: +67%)
Week 1: +10.5%
Week 2: +13.5%
Week 3: +7.5%
Week 4: +10%
Week 5: +0.8%
Week 6: +11%
So the question is:
Is this time truly different?
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🟢WHICH STOCK WILL BE THE BIGGEST WINNER THIS WEEK?
$SPY $QQQ
GIF
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