DevD

@gharkekalesh People are crazy and fun to watch. Guy went totally off ramp to defend his 1 share ownership in a live call, ROFL

Kalesh b/w A guy ( holding one share😭🤣 of GKB ophthalmics ltd.) And Company board during annual shareholders meeting💀😭

@TrungTPhan World becoming interesting day by day, crazy 🤣

someone used Veo3 to make Moses as a YouTuber live-streaming the Exodus

@Nigel__DSouza Life is beautiful ❤️

An Indian wedding brings Wall Street to a standstill! 😅

@alifarhat79 Boner time 😅

Eth is back above $2,000

@DanielTNiles I turned a few years older reading this tweet 😭😅

While I started the year with cash as my leading pick and no Magnificent 7 names, on April 7th I did a CNBC interview that was titled “Might see a short-term bounce, but still cautious long-term, says investor Dan Niles.” On April 9th, the 90 day pushback on tariffs as President Trump became concerned enough by the bond market and fears of a recession helped drive a one day 9.5% rally. Since then, hopes of 90 trade deals in 90 days has helped maintain the optimism. The S&P is now down just 6% from the beginning of the year and 3% from the day before Liberation Day. But does the political climate feel only 3-6% more chaotic since the beginning of the year or the day before Liberation Day? Is the chance of a US recession up only 3-6% since then? How about the odds of a problem with currency markets or credit markets? If not, then the easy money has probably been made on this 11% S&P rally from its closing lows on April 8th. Remember that the biggest rallies happen in just 2-4 months during bear markets and are greater than the 9% average yearly return for the S&P. That occurred in just one day on April 9th. During the Global Financial Crisis the S&P had eleven rallies of 10% on average in less than 2 months on average while losing 57% over one and half years. During the Tech Bubble, the S&P had seven rallies that averaged 14% each in less than 5 months on average while losing 49% over two & half years. The desire to believe it was the bottom was quite high during each of those rallies but earnings estimates and trailing PE multiples had to still go lower which ultimately drove the stocks lower. For the stock market to bottom, it usually takes time barring unusual fiscal (eg stimulus checks) or monetary largesse (rapid rate cuts.) If we get 90 deals in 90 days including some of the most important countries like China, then maybe this rally continues and the S&P has seen the lows for the year. However I feel the Fed is on hold given their concerns over tariff driven inflation in the pipeline and unemployment still remains low. I am watching weekly jobless claims closely. The federal government is also trying to cut wasteful spending versus driving the deficit wider. If China and the US cannot even agree on whether or not they are talking, how close is a trade deal actually with our most important trading partner? Having said that, news stories about Apple potentially shifting all iPhone production to India in 2026 puts pressure on China that has a youth unemployment rate in the mid-teens. The bond/currency/equity market selloffs and the fears about empty retailer shelves by the summer is putting pressure on the US. And there are news stories that Chinese officials were seen going into the US Treasury department last week. The biggest obstacle is arguably that neither side wants to be seen as the one to acquiesce to pressure. In the meantime, demand has been pulled forward to get in front of tariffs and export controls. It is shocking to me how many companies say they have not seen any demand being pulled forward. Wouldn’t it just be common sense to do that if you are a well run company or smart consumer? For example, it has been widely reported that Apple airlifted 600 tons of iPhones from India to beat Trump tariffs. To their credit many companies have talked about a pull forward in demand or that they do not know. Those are the ones that have risen on my credibility list. As I wrote the morning before $TSLA reported, I thought earnings in general would be solid for most companies and the market would rally through early May which is the bulk of earnings season. From early January levels, tailwinds into earnings include: 1) the US dollar having dropped from $110 to ~$100 2) Oil having dropped from $80 to the mid-$60s 3) 10 year yields have dropped from 4.8% to 4.2% Going into Q1 earnings, this was the most constructive I have felt on the Magnificent 7 stock prices this year. On average the M7 are down now just 15% YTD versus down 26% at the close of April 8th. Both Tesla (+25% since reporting) and $GOOGL (+2% since reporting) have rallied in reaction to earnings. While I am not surprised, given my preview, the 25% gain in 3 trading days post rough results for Tesla were even more than I could have hoped for. This three day gain has only been surpassed 8 times in its history. Hopes for the robotaxi launch by mid-year and autonomous robots by year-end can keep FOMO alive for a stock that was down 68% at its worst from its peak. Elon Musk will also be spending more time at the company. Valuation at 128x PE for CY25, makes no sense but this has been the case for most of its history with the most visionary CEO of our generation at its helm. But Fed rate hikes in 2022 and earnings expectations coming down since early 2023, is also why the stock is still down 30% from its highs in 2021 (11/4/21) versus the 18% gain in the S&P and 9% gain in the Nasdaq. Tesla Q1 EPS in 2021 was $0.31 versus the $0.27 reported for Q1 of 2025. This follows the first decline in EV deliveries for Tesla in 2024 in over a decade while industry units were up 25%. 2024 had nothing to do with politics. The potential for the $7,500 in EV tax credits being repealed in the US and Chinese EV manufacturers taking tremendous share in 2024, is keeping my optimism on how far this rally can go in check. Clearly fundamentals at some valuation level do matter given the underperformance of the stock since its highs in late 2021. Even in 2024, the stock was down 2% year-to-date through November 4th versus the S&P and Nasdaq which were both up 20-21% due to these poor fundamentals and high valuation before the election of Donald Trump. For Google, the rally is less than I expected given better than expected revenues, margins and EPS. Expectations were low but paid clicks dropping to only 2% growth y/y in Q1:25 from 5% in Q1:24 and 8% in Q1:23 speaks to the threat of other AI companies taking share from search. Google Cloud revenues also decelerated from 30% y/y growth in Q4:24 to 28% in Q1:25. But at the lowest PE of the Mag7 at 18x CY25 versus the S&P at 21x, the risk to reward is good. Given the solid results from Google and stock reaction by Tesla despite rough results, the bar has been raised for the four other Magnificent 7 names that report this upcoming week. $META: While I expect a strong quarter, they guide for the following quarter unlike Google and this could be the issue given they are typically conservative. The changes to the de minimis exemption could also have a larger impact on their business with Asian retailers than for Google. META also does not have another way to monetize their AI investment unlike for Google (Google Cloud), Microsoft (Azure) and Amazon (AWS.) Meta’s current forecast for $65B in capex would be a whopping 35% of revenues expected for the year. This ratio is roughly 22% of revenues for Google, their closest competitor in the online ad market, that plans to spend $75B in capex for comparison. For Microsoft, their capex is close to 32% of revenues for the first half of 2025. For Amazon, their capex guidance of ~$105B is about 15% of revenues but this also includes significant capex for their e-commerce business. The reports of Meta trying to get Microsoft or Amazon to help fund their spending makes me also worry that the ROI which has been spectacular over the last two years has tapered off for META. Given Llama from Meta is open sourced, why would others want to pay for something that they could get for free anyway? $MSFT: They have been walking back expectations around AI capex for several months now which makes me wonder how bad Azure is. I have written about this extensively in the past. Microsoft has guided revenues below the street for three consecutive earnings reports on disappointing Azure outlooks. Expectations are the lowest I can remember. While the stock, like everything else, has rallied from its lows, it would not take much positive news to send it higher. $AMZN: While I expect a solid Q1, I worry about the retail revenues & margin guide for the June quarter given the impact of tariffs balanced by the benefits of the weakening dollar and oil prices. I would also expect a wider guidance range than usual given the tariff uncertainty. I am not as concerned about AWS given recent public comments by the CEO and others that demand is strong. The valuation has also reached compelling levels and Amazon tends to be a share taker during recessions. $AAPL: I believe the quarter and the outlook will be solid as consumers upgrade their phones and try to get in front of potential price increases caused by tariffs. The problem is this will come out of demand for future quarters. Their lack of capex investment which is less than 3% of their revenues is also catching up to them. AI features for Siri have been pushed out to 2026. They are losing a lot of market share to their China competitors. The stock also has a trailing PE of 33x versus 5% cumulative revenue growth over the past three years and an S&P PE of 23x. This compares to over 90% cumulative revenues growth on average for the other six members of the Mag7 with comparable or lower multiples on current CY25 estimates. Even excluding Nvidia, the average is nearly 50% revenue growth cumulatively for the other five members. Tariffs will also take a bite out of profits for Apple and eventually I believe Google will have to stop paying them to be the default search engine. While the stock may rally on strong results and outlook, it still has a lot of fundamental issues and a high valuation. $NVDA: While their quarter ends in April, four reasons make me optimistic on the stock in the near-term: 1) Nothing spurs demand like the potential for future price increases- in this case potential tariffs that were postponed for 90 days. 2) When China was put on export restrictions for H20 shipments, demand surged from other countries. 3) Nvidia writing off $5.5B derisks the income statement in the near-term and will help gross margins increase going forward combined with the Blackwell ramp. Gross margin downside has been an issue for Nvidia over the past six months albeit from amazingly profitable levels. 4) Both companies and investors can believe that demand is being driven by a surge in inference demand versus the additional stockpiling of chips. This warehousing of chips already occurred in China before the most recent ban. As for the risk versus the reward, Nvidia’s stock declined 49% from its 52 week high to its intra-day lows on April 7th and its trailing PE is just 40x today. Excluding Tesla, which fell 68% from peak to trough, this is the worst decline of any of the Magnificent 7. On a trailing basis, their PE also compares favorably given its revenue growth rate to 32-34x for Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. From a longer-term perspective, the innovations introduced by DeepSeek cut inference costs by over 90%. This was a step function improvement and has already made its way into the US open-sourced Llama models of Meta. So even as the demand for inference tokens is exploding higher, the hardware costs to produce those tokens is imploding lower. The analogy is $CSCO was predicting that their revenue growth could be sustained at 40-60% by the growth in internet traffic in the late 1990s. Cisco was the Nvidia of its day and became the most valuable company in the world during this infrastructure buildout. And internet traffic did go up by roughly 5-6x over the 2.5 years from March of 2000 till October of 2002. But Cisco's revenue growth dropped from 56% growth in F2000 to -15% in F2002 and remained slightly negative in F2003. And the Nasdaq dropped 78% from peak to trough due to the internet infrastructure overbuild in the late 1990s and rapid drop in costs to deliver that traffic. Cisco's stock has never seen those peak levels again in 25 years while there is no doubt the internet did change everything. It is important to keep an open mind that demand maybe increasing rapidly for inference but costs may also be dropping even faster. Inference demand should ultimately drive significantly more chip demand than training by the end of the decade. AI agents will get widely adopted by consumers at some point. I believe we are going through a digestion phase much like those in the late 1990s as the internet infrastructure continued to be built out. But that buildout occurred over ~5-6 years before a bust due to overbuild. We are only just over 2 years into the AI buildout since the release of ChatGPT on November 30th of 2022. Huawei’s new Ascend 900 series of processors also reduces China’s reliance on Nvidia AI chips in the future. This reminds me of Huawei introducing their first smartphone, the Mate 60 in August of 2023, with their own processor manufactured at SMIC. This followed the sanctions imposed in late 2020 restricting Huawei’s access to US chips. My view in late 2023 was Huawei would take a lot of market share despite the technology probably being at least a generation behind the iPhone. By 2024, Huawei had surpassed Apple’s market share in China. Huawei’s smartphone market share in China went from high single digits in 2022 to high teens by 2024. Sometimes the technology is good enough. The new Ascend chips might only be on par with the H20 or in the best case H200 chips from Nvidia but clearly China was willing to buy the H20 chips to begin with. Nvidia’s future revenue potential has probably been permanently reduced. But in the near-term, I think the bullish interpretation will win of inference demand driving the strong demand versus just a pull-in of demand which is all that will matter to Nvidia's stock. As for stock market valuations, they are high and matter over the longer-term as can be seen by the large underperformance of the Nasdaq versus the S&P since the end of the stimulus fueled euphoria in 2021. Since then the S&P is up 16% cumulatively versus the 11% gain for the Nasdaq. Including dividends, this gap is even wider at 22% versus 14%. Well surely the Magnificent 7 have outperformed? Excluding Nvidia which gained 277% since the end of 2021, the rest of the Magnificent 7 have actually underperformed and are up 17%. The S&P trailing multiple at 23x should probably be closer to 19x at the current inflation levels. In a recession this PE is usually closer to mid-teens. For those that think, this must be cherry picking, since the formation of the Nasdaq on February 5th of 1971, the S&P including dividends has outperformed the Nasdaq at 10.8% compounded versus 10.5% compounded. While we have the AI revolution today, since 1971, inventions or proliferation of a technology have include the first single chip microprocessor, the PC, the cellphone, the internet, solar technology, electric vehicles and the smartphone. Many claim the AI revolution is more impactful today but this is like the debate over Michael Jordan versus LeBron James as the GOAT. Recency bias is powerful. I am a Wilt fan myself but that is a debate for another day. Finally as for the current Wall street estimates for over 10% S&P EPS growth for 2025, it should probably be closer to flattish. This assumes no recession but just a slowdown in growth. In a recession, EPS growth is likely to go negative. My base case is negative GDP in Q3 from the current pull-in of demand but then a recovery thereafter. In summary, my current thoughts remain that: 1) this is a typical bear market rally of 10-14% with upside potential through early May but the risk to reward has diminished with this 11% move higher 2) valuations do matter (over the longer-term) and remain high at 23x trailing versus 19x being more reasonable at the current inflation levels of 2.5-3.0% 3) the pull forward in demand will lead to negative GDP growth in Q3 and S&P earnings expectations being revised lower 4) the above factors will probably cause a retest of the lows for stock prices at the very least. But as I have repeated many times, I believe Charles Darwin had the right advice for investors today: “It is not the strongest nor the most intelligent of species that survives, but the one that is most adaptable to change.” With the shifting daily news flow on tariffs and their resultant economic impact, these words have never been truer. As John Maynard Keynes said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

@ParikPatelCFA Unless it's a margin call 🤙

It’s not a loss if you don’t sell

@Mr_Derivatives Part of the filled order.

@Mr_Derivatives I had 40 contracts of $BABA strike 90 bought at 2.1 when the underlying was at 86. Sold at 10 and felt like a king, they are selling for 30$ now. I am crying inside when I see $BABA going up daily. Pain is real. 120K left on the table, wish I knew the future.

I once had 2,000 shares of $META at 95. And got out with minimal profits because I listened to others and didn’t trust my own gut. It’s ok. Come here. 🫂 Pain is best enjoyed together…

@ashtom Knock knock, Devin is here

SWE agents on github.com; mark my words that is the next wave.

@BrianTycangco This time she has AI lip gloss as well.

$BABA is like that ex you broke up with in college because she was always grounded by her strict parents. You bump into her later on in life. She’s successful. Moreover, she now looks incredibly mature and exuding sex appeal. Everybody sees it. They all know she’s a real catch. You wanna ask her out again and perhaps get that fire going again. But you’re still worried about their strict parents. 😂

@teddykim hahaha

All the art I attempt with AI is vaguely disappointing. But all the art I make without AI is also vaguely disappointing, so....

@teddykim so true and beautifully said, thanks for sharing.

As a minister my dad never made more than $65k. Throughout my life we trended between poor and lower middle class. But somehow my parents managed to send four kids to elite private university. How you ask? We lived beneath our means. My parents never went to a movie or concert. Sizzler was our "fancy" restaurant. My mom patched our clothes. She raised vegetables in the garden and froze them for later. I didn't have a computer, or video games. We didn't have a TV or central air. A few winters we got by with a kerosene heater and the fireplace. One day my dad took me and my sister "fishing". This was not white people fishing. Fishing for my dad was just dipping fish out of the water with a pole net, factory style. In 30 minutes he filled two garbage bags with fish. Then my mom stayed up all night cleaning and freezing them. That was our protein for like six months. We kids all had to participate in our own survival. We all had part time jobs, straight A's, scholarships, ROTC, blah blah. The kids also supported each other. In high school I wanted a computer. At the time my sister was an undergrad at MIT and she needed a graphing calculator. There wasn't enough money for both so the family prioritized her. Was I disapointed? Sure. But poor people need to pool resources to survive. My parents taught me not to resent this, and my sisters and I still honor them in this. As a former poor person I can tell you that poverty is a state of mind. This family, whoever they are, have true wealth. Don't wait. Start a family. Surround yourself with love.

@RampCapitalLLC 3-3 , if equal then remaining one is the one. if 3-3 not equal then redo last one with 1-1 on the heavy 3. We will have heavy ball known in 2nd attempt.

Embarrassed that it took me entirely way too long to figure this out

@brunoborges Thanks for sharing

The official #OpenAI SDK for #Java is finally out. github.com/openai/openai-…

@TrungTPhan He is a trader after all but not the best one, losing so much in a market where it's raining. I hope this thread was from 2022.

Next-level dating move on Wall Street Bet. User with $1m in trading losses offering to marry someone with $1m+ in short-term capital gains and split the tax savings.

Very likely whale simply sold MSTR equity via derivative route. If stock closes above 300 strike price on the day of expiry, they surrender on the day. This is the best way to get off a large equity position. If stock closes below 300 on the day of expiry they keep the entire premium (they sold at 530 remember)

Ok wait what the fuck. This $MSTR whale sold to open a 300 call strike for 12/27exp for over $149M!!!!! This is a trade that was opened today. They think that it will be below 300 by end of year Keep note This may be the craziest order I have ever seen on @unusual_whales

@teddykim @DOGE We need some Semi-autistic MF's, haha liked the choice of word here

I'm too old to work for @DOGE ... they need fresh legs... but I have been part of big transformations at two Fortune 50 institutions and one Fortune 300 institution... using those experiences as a guide, I have three predictions for how Elon and Vivek are going to transform the federal government into a prosperity-producing system. 1. Align Control and Responsibility One of the biggest sources of waste in any institution occurs when Team A is responsible for a given outcome, but Team B controls the levers necessary to deliver the outcome. If you want to create toxic psychodrama with mutual finger-pointing, just set up a system that misaligns control and responsibility. Nothing will ever get done. You may as well just start incinerating your cash. An example of misaligned control and responsibility would be No Child Left Behind, a federal initiative meant to drive educational outcomes. The problem with NCLB is that the federal government is taking responsibility for education outcomes, when it's actually the states that control the schools. With NCLB, the Department of Education created bureaucratic waste out of thin air by making federal educational funding contingent on state performance against NCLB objectives. In other words, each state must sub-optimize their educational systems to satisfy federal mandates. I think Vivek and Trump have both advocated for deleting the Department of Education in favor of funding states directly. I'm guessing some of the motivation behind this is to align control and responsibility, at least as it relates to public education. 2. Decentralize Most of the government's IT, infrastructure, and cybersecurity is centrally administered by the General Services Administration. To put it another way, the government's ability to scale, innovate, and deliver value is bounded by the GSA's ability to scale, innovate, and deliver value. Judging by the problems with healthcare dot gov, or the number of broken links on most government websites, the GSA is not a competent technology provider. The government itself recognizes this by granting GSA exemptions to certain agencies that need to innovate quickly or meet urgent needs. What Elon and Vivek have identified is that the entire government needs to innovate quickly and meet urgent needs. I expect that responsibility for core functions will be distributed across agencies in a massive decentralization effort. 3. Starve Zombie Processes Did you know we have a National Helium Reserve? This probably made a lot of sense back when we needed to fill up blimps. In 2024, using taxpayer money to stockpile helium is dumb and irresponsible. Why are we still doing this? As long as we're on the subject, do we still need NASA? Back in 1958, Eisenhower turned space exploration into a national priority so that we could compete with the Soviets. At the time, we needed nation-level resources to explore space. But that was then. Today NASA struggles to produce even a working prototype. Meanwhile, SpaceX is creating rockets at scale and catching them mid-air with chopsticks. At this point, NASA is basically a zombie process. This pains me as a space nerd, but what else can you say when NASA is stranding astronauts in space who must ultimately be rescued by SpaceX? Conclusion We need some super cracked, driven, semi-autistic MF'ers to sign up for DOGE. The work will be grueling. They will face obstructionism at every turn. But when all is said and done, it will be the greatest turnaround story the world has ever seen.

@unusual_whales I called her today too and she didn't pick up my call so I left a voicemail.

Thank you for calling your mothers yesterday. The market is now green.

@zerohedge Volatility is actually a printer 🖨️🖨️🖨️🖨️ Call options tomorrowgo brrrrrr

*JAPAN'S NIKKEI INDEX RISES 7.4% TO 33,791.17

@Mr_Derivatives $GME announces they are buying BTC and Nvidia chips with a debt free balance sheet now and 4.1 billion cash on hand. Stock triples in a day, lol

$GME The meeting is rescheduled to Monday, not today. Monday could be the biggest day in Gamestop’s history. Just sayin’.