Andrea Calestani

@mathlonning During Q1 session Gerardo said low Operating Margin was the floor. If it’s serious I will expect EPS in Line with WS projections

$TMDX price action leading into earnings will be telling of the results. Someone always has access to the data beforehand. I think the consensus estimates at 187m are reasonable. Anything under that likely sells off, especially if margins deteriorate.

@TheSpartaInvest Quite impossibile reach 45$ in my opinion

@TheSpartaInvest At which price level is pull down of 0.786 Fib?

Watching $TMDX closely. Still expecting a pull down to the 0.786 Fib retracement. If it dips there, I'm loading up heavy. The setup could easily yield 600%+ upside.

@mathlonning Why earnings data is not official? Will be in august?

$TMDX it is possible they’re doing some CHOPS missions through flights and it is also possible they’ve had a sharp gain in market share.

@mathlonning Is it confirmed earnings 30th july?

$TMDX It appears the market is not quite buying that the revenue per flight number stays similar to the historical average. Do you guys think that number goes down significantly? If it stays the same, the stock might pop 20% the day of earnings. If it’s down significantly, we may have a big issue.

@mathlonning Is it a News? I remember lung trials as a strategic program (DENOVO if I remember)…Why now it is a waste of resources?

$TMDX I think starting the lung trials was a mistake. In my opinion, they should’ve done those trials after Europe and kidney. I think they should’ve waited on lung and focused on these other expansion areas. If lung doesn’t work out, it’ll be a huge waste of resources

@derpaderpederp @nanalyzetweets @grok For me TMDX P/E should be 35x/40x at least

@nanalyzetweets @dgkellone23 @grok what is $AAPL past 5 year revenue CAGR and what is it's current P/E? What is $TMDX current P/E?

The deceleration in growth seen below hints at our biggest concern surrounding the TransMedics $TMDX thesis. Is the opportunity big enough to keep growth continuing well into the future?

@mathlonning Any news about Q2 earnings release? I think it will be in early august

$TMDX averaging over 35 flights a day, for another MoM increase and for another potential record. Management has always said flights are not a way to track revenue, but it has historically come in line. Excited for Q3, if the start is good enough they could feel comfortable in raising to 22.5-25% YoY growth.

@mathlonning If I Remeber well during Q1 call they talked about losing 2.5% of Operating Incone. So full year should be 16% roughy. Q1 was 9%. I expect improvement. Only KPI that will susbstain shares growth to 85-100

$TMDX is going to crush Q2 and Q3 from the looks of it. I find it hard to believe the percentage of dry runs has increased this significantly QoQ.

@nanalyzetweets Amazing note! Very professional and deep dive! Sorry for my post! I wanted to say that it’s normal a Sales curve like TMDX show! Tyoical for a growth conpany.

@growthrapidly Strong buy considering 1 year view in my opinion

$TMDX My goal this weekend is to research TransMedics, stay up to date, and figure out what exactly went wrong after earnings. I used to own the stock last year and sold for a nice profit. Now the stock is down massively after earnings: >EPS missed badly ($0.30 vs. $0.62 expected) >Margins got crushed >Operating expenses surged from expansion/logistics investments Yet revenue still grew 21% YoY to $174M. The market clearly hated the quarter. But was the selloff justified, or is this becoming an opportunity? Who’s still holding or buying here?

@JonahLupton Do you think is a over reaction of market regarding IBM? Or it’s the first voice about software under pressure during Q2?

$IBM is getting smoked pre-market after releasing preliminary numbers... stock down -17% Looks like $IBM is pulling down other software stocks (ie $NOW $ADBE $CRM $INTU $ACN $ESTC $SNOW etc) because of the following commentary... "In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases. This dynamic impacted client buying patterns. While we anticipated some supply chain related impact in our expectations, we did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization." Bad commentary for software names... good commentary for memory, chips, and other hardware names.

@ScottJo17779936 @mathlonning For me or we are gorowing in market share or we are doing more trials and dry runs (in any case negative Sales mix)

@mathlonning Something is clearly happening with number of flights. Historically, their slowest qtr and we are seeing the opposite so far. Is it market share gains? More hospitals adopting the technology or something else.

$TMDX consensus revenues for Q2 26 have risen from ~184m at the beginning of April, to now ~187m. I think there’s a real chance they come in over $190 even without much contribution of trials. Liver YoY growth and European expansion could be enough for now. Though trials will be needed 2H 26.

@mathlonning My view is mixed. The total result is driven by higher volume and trials impact. In these way we have Revenues close to 188-190M

$TMDX Going over OPTN data. $TMDX either, gained several bps of market share MoM, is doing several bps more of NOP flights with their own fleet (over chartered flights) or there’s an increase in flights were a transplant does not take place (dry-runs). Regardless, liver growth is healthy and should put them in place to meet their yearly guidance. Assuming no loss of market share.

@Jake__Wujastyk Source?

$MSFT Bingo. This is ready for a 10% move.

@ScottJo17779936 @mathlonning We have to look EPS moves. If we stay under 2.0$ is tricky to have 80$ of share value . If we start to recover Margin, we can run

@mathlonning Upside potential possibly to 770-775

Last year, $TMDX revenue fell ~13% QoQ from Q2 to Q3. 157m to 143m. This year, through their many new initiatives, there’s an opportunity for this drop to be significantly lower. If that’s the case, they’ll meet their guidance easily. If QoQ comes flat, there may be upside.

@ScottJo17779936 @JonahLupton @mathlonning What do you mean?

@JonahLupton @mathlonning There is still a big disconnect

@mathlonning I have to work again. But unless “sell the news” this year could be flat

@mathlonning When will be earnings day? 28 july?

July is usually the slowest month for transplants in the US. So far $TMDX flight data points to a much less nuanced slowdown. Although I don’t think there’s a chance of guidance being raised, a strong q3 does open the door for it.