Dhaval Parikh
10.2K posts

Dhaval Parikh
@dhavalp
Investor/Trader since 2005 | Arbitrage | Building financial bots using AI / ML | Birder | Wildlife | Founder @ https://t.co/5bV8t1GiZC | DM for collabs.













I bought TTK Prestige at Rs.15, and got chance to meet TT Jagannathan in Banglore, but I skipped it and sold my shares at Rs.200. Today it is trading at Rs.6,500. A client held TTK till Rs.750, but on my advice about Value of Money and Opportunity cost, he sold.😆 - Govind Parikh.’19

I bought TTK Prestige at Rs.15, and got chance to meet TT Jagannathan in Banglore, but I skipped it and sold my shares at Rs.200. Today it is trading at Rs.6,500. A client held TTK till Rs.750, but on my advice about Value of Money and Opportunity cost, he sold.😆 - Govind Parikh.’19


🚨 Promoter Buying Disclosures (Open Market) • IRB Infrastructure: Promoter group (IRB Holding) bought 12L shares today (~₹49.8 Cr); ~36L over 3 days (~₹1.48 Cr total) • Orient Ceratech: Promoter group bought 11.6L shares (~₹4.29 Cr) • Jindal Drilling: Promoter group bought ~98.5k shares (~₹4.57 Cr) • Maharashtra Seamless: Promoter group bought 30,185 shares (~₹1.64 Cr) • Premier Polyfilm: Promoter group (D L Millar & Co) bought 1.70L shares (~₹2 Cr) Smaller buys: • Beryl Drugs: 7,500 sh (~₹1.57L) • Clinitech Lab: 2,400 sh • Tiger Logistics: 40k sh • Sacheta Metals: Multiple tranches (~55k+ sh) • Marathon Nextgen Realty: Multiple promoter group purchases (ongoing) • Prataap Snacks, Gem Aromatics, GLEN Industries, etc. Skin in the game = Bullish signal? 📈 #PromoterBuying #IndianStocks #StockMarket



Stock to Study : IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd (IRB) - Another stock with continuous promoter buying Company Snapshot IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd is one of India's largest road infrastructure developers and operators, with a strong focus on highways under BOT, TOT, and EPC models. It has a massive portfolio of operational toll roads, InvIT holdings (IRB InvIT Fund), and a shift toward asset-light strategy via monetization and TOT bids. Benefits from government’s highway expansion, NHAI’s TOT pipeline, traffic growth, and InvIT-driven capital recycling. The company is transitioning to a more annuity-like model with long-duration O&M revenues. Guidance & Outlook from Q3 FY26 Concall (Feb 2026) Management was confident on toll growth, asset monetization, and long-term visibility; no major downward revisions: - Toll Revenue: Q3 aggregate toll ₹2,152 Cr (+12% YoY); Q4 expected growth >15–17%; FY27 toll revenue growth ~20%+. - Asset Base: Expanded from ₹80,000 Cr to ₹94,000 Cr; on track to scale to ₹1,40,000 Cr over next 3 years. - Order Book (as of Dec 2025): ₹37,300 Cr (EPC ₹1,600 Cr; O&M ~₹35,000–35,700 Cr providing 10–18 years visibility). - Monetization: Assets worth ₹8,500 Cr monetized in recent period; capital recycled into new projects. - FY26 EPC + O&M Revenue: Guided ~₹3,400 Cr. - O&M Margin: ~20%. - Debt: Consolidated net debt reduced; targeting net debt-free by FY30 through disciplined allocation and monetization. - Q4 FY26: Strong toll momentum expected. - Medium-term: 30% profit CAGR targeted through 2030; focus on TOT segment (market share ~44%), InvIT platforms, and calibrated bidding. Bonus issue 1:1 + interim dividend announced. Valuation Analysis & Projections FY26 Estimates (conservative, based on 9M trends + guidance): - Revenue: ~₹7,500–8,000 Cr (EPC slowdown offset by toll/InvIT). - EBITDA: Strong contribution from toll + O&M. - PAT (before exceptional): Growth trajectory with 14%+ in Q3 pre-exceptional. Implied Multiples at ~₹41.2 (as of 25 Mar 2026): - TTM P/E: ~31x (elevated due to one-offs; forward lower). - EV/EBITDA: Reasonable on toll cash flows. - P/B: ~1.2x (Book Value ~₹33–34). Order-book-to-MCap ratio: Strong visibility (~1.5x MCap on total OB; O&M annuity-like). Compared to road/infra peers (often 15–40x P/E on growth), IRB trades at a discount considering asset-light shift, toll stability, and long O&M book. Analyst consensus target ~₹57–58.5 (range ₹48–72), implying 40%+ upside. Key Positives - Robust toll revenue growth (+12% YoY in Q3) and traffic momentum. - Massive ₹37,300 Cr order book with long-duration O&M annuity (~₹35,000 Cr). - Successful monetization (₹8,500 Cr) and debt reduction; asset base scaling to ₹1.4 lakh Cr. - 1:1 bonus issue + dividends; shift to higher-margin TOT/InvIT model. - 30% profit CAGR ambition through 2030. Key Risks (mitigated but monitor) - EPC revenue weakness and slow ordering environment. - One-off exceptional items impacting reported PAT. - Execution delays in new TOT assets or monetization. - Interest rate sensitivity on debt and traffic volume risks (macro/seasonal). Longer-term: Highway monetization + TOT pipeline + InvIT recycling will drive sustainable 15–20%+ CAGR in cash flows and earnings with improving ROE. Position size accordingly; suitable for infra/annuity-style growth portfolios. Monitor Q4 FY26 toll collections, further TOT wins, and monetization progress closely. Stock Valuation and Projected Price Target : At current valuations (~₹41.2), IRB Infrastructure offers compelling risk-reward as a leading road developer with strong annuity visibility. The combination of robust toll growth, ₹37,300 Cr order book, asset base expansion to ₹1.4 lakh Cr, and debt reduction path justifies a re-rating toward 18–22x forward multiples (target price ₹55–65 over 12–18 months, 35–60%+ upside; analyst consensus ~₹57–58.5 implies ~40% potential, highs up to ₹72). #IRBInfra #StockMarketIndia #Nifty #Investing #StocksToWatch #ShareMarket #Sensex #promoterbuying

Stock to Study : IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd (IRB) - Another stock with continuous promoter buying Company Snapshot IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd is one of India's largest road infrastructure developers and operators, with a strong focus on highways under BOT, TOT, and EPC models. It has a massive portfolio of operational toll roads, InvIT holdings (IRB InvIT Fund), and a shift toward asset-light strategy via monetization and TOT bids. Benefits from government’s highway expansion, NHAI’s TOT pipeline, traffic growth, and InvIT-driven capital recycling. The company is transitioning to a more annuity-like model with long-duration O&M revenues. Guidance & Outlook from Q3 FY26 Concall (Feb 2026) Management was confident on toll growth, asset monetization, and long-term visibility; no major downward revisions: - Toll Revenue: Q3 aggregate toll ₹2,152 Cr (+12% YoY); Q4 expected growth >15–17%; FY27 toll revenue growth ~20%+. - Asset Base: Expanded from ₹80,000 Cr to ₹94,000 Cr; on track to scale to ₹1,40,000 Cr over next 3 years. - Order Book (as of Dec 2025): ₹37,300 Cr (EPC ₹1,600 Cr; O&M ~₹35,000–35,700 Cr providing 10–18 years visibility). - Monetization: Assets worth ₹8,500 Cr monetized in recent period; capital recycled into new projects. - FY26 EPC + O&M Revenue: Guided ~₹3,400 Cr. - O&M Margin: ~20%. - Debt: Consolidated net debt reduced; targeting net debt-free by FY30 through disciplined allocation and monetization. - Q4 FY26: Strong toll momentum expected. - Medium-term: 30% profit CAGR targeted through 2030; focus on TOT segment (market share ~44%), InvIT platforms, and calibrated bidding. Bonus issue 1:1 + interim dividend announced. Valuation Analysis & Projections FY26 Estimates (conservative, based on 9M trends + guidance): - Revenue: ~₹7,500–8,000 Cr (EPC slowdown offset by toll/InvIT). - EBITDA: Strong contribution from toll + O&M. - PAT (before exceptional): Growth trajectory with 14%+ in Q3 pre-exceptional. Implied Multiples at ~₹41.2 (as of 25 Mar 2026): - TTM P/E: ~31x (elevated due to one-offs; forward lower). - EV/EBITDA: Reasonable on toll cash flows. - P/B: ~1.2x (Book Value ~₹33–34). Order-book-to-MCap ratio: Strong visibility (~1.5x MCap on total OB; O&M annuity-like). Compared to road/infra peers (often 15–40x P/E on growth), IRB trades at a discount considering asset-light shift, toll stability, and long O&M book. Analyst consensus target ~₹57–58.5 (range ₹48–72), implying 40%+ upside. Key Positives - Robust toll revenue growth (+12% YoY in Q3) and traffic momentum. - Massive ₹37,300 Cr order book with long-duration O&M annuity (~₹35,000 Cr). - Successful monetization (₹8,500 Cr) and debt reduction; asset base scaling to ₹1.4 lakh Cr. - 1:1 bonus issue + dividends; shift to higher-margin TOT/InvIT model. - 30% profit CAGR ambition through 2030. Key Risks (mitigated but monitor) - EPC revenue weakness and slow ordering environment. - One-off exceptional items impacting reported PAT. - Execution delays in new TOT assets or monetization. - Interest rate sensitivity on debt and traffic volume risks (macro/seasonal). Longer-term: Highway monetization + TOT pipeline + InvIT recycling will drive sustainable 15–20%+ CAGR in cash flows and earnings with improving ROE. Position size accordingly; suitable for infra/annuity-style growth portfolios. Monitor Q4 FY26 toll collections, further TOT wins, and monetization progress closely. Stock Valuation and Projected Price Target : At current valuations (~₹41.2), IRB Infrastructure offers compelling risk-reward as a leading road developer with strong annuity visibility. The combination of robust toll growth, ₹37,300 Cr order book, asset base expansion to ₹1.4 lakh Cr, and debt reduction path justifies a re-rating toward 18–22x forward multiples (target price ₹55–65 over 12–18 months, 35–60%+ upside; analyst consensus ~₹57–58.5 implies ~40% potential, highs up to ₹72). #IRBInfra #StockMarketIndia #Nifty #Investing #StocksToWatch #ShareMarket #Sensex #promoterbuying







4 PSU Banks.All at critical support. 📊One of them bounces hard from here. Which one do YOU think recovers first?👇 1️⃣ #UNIONBANK 2️⃣ #MAHANANK 3️⃣ #BANKOFINDIA 4️⃣ #INDIANBANK #nifty #nifty50 #sensex #stockmarket #banknifty #StocksToWatch #giftnifty #StocksInFocus #stocks #watchlist #investment






