Jake Dibden
224 posts
@dibden_jake
Research Fellow at More in Common and Oxford DPhil Sociology candidate. I like thinking about elections.
‘D’hondt is just a messy bitch who lives for drama': inside the Senedd race that could remake Wales: 🏴 Plaid and Reform plot big final pitch 🔵Tories bracing for 7 of 96 seats 🏛 Whitehall fear rerun of Scotland 🥀Minds in Labour already turn to rebuild spectator.com/article/even-c…
More in Common Locals Seat Projection Scenarios: Low Estimate: Reform: +1,273 Green: +573 Lib Dem: +148 Labour: -1,867 Conservative: -692 Middle Estimate: Reform: +1,437 Green: +926 Lib Dem: +327 Labour: -1,738 Conservative: -627 High Estimate: Green: +1,741 Reform: +1,603 Lib Dem: +503 Labour: -1,597 Conservative: -368 Source: @Moreincommon_ May 7 Briefing moreincommon.org.uk/media/p43ake24…
Your friendly reminder (that despite the image portrayed online) Nick, 30 ans, still votes for Labour because he is a young urban graduate, and is more likely to vote for the Greens than to vote for Reform.
Our First Welsh MRP estimates Plaid as the largest party in the Senedd 🌼Plaid Cymru 30 seats ➡️Reform UK 28 seats 🌹Labour 24 seats 🌳Conservatives 7 seats 💚Greens 4 seats 🔶Liberal Democrats 3 seats
A PhD student at Oxford got caught submitting "AI-generated" work. Except he hadn't used AI to write anything. He used it to think. Here's the workflow his advisor called "the most sophisticated research process I've seen in 20 years." He starts every essay with a brutal diagnostic prompt. Dumps his rough argument into Claude and asks: "What are the 3 weakest logical jumps in this reasoning? Where would a hostile examiner attack first?" The AI doesn't write his essay. It destroys his draft. Then he rebuilds. But the next step is what separates him from every other student using ChatGPT or Claude to generate paragraphs. He uploads the top 5 papers in his field and asks: "What claims in my argument contradict or oversimplify what these authors actually found?" Most students cite papers they've skimmed. He cites papers he's been forced to genuinely understand. The final move is almost unfair. Before submitting, he pastes his conclusion and asks: "What would a philosopher of science say is missing from this argument? What assumptions am I making that I haven't defended?" His essays come back with comments like "unusually rigorous" and "demonstrates rare critical depth." He's not using AI to write. He's using it to think harder than he could alone. The tool hasn't changed. The workflow has.
New Times/Stonehaven MRP poll out puts SNP on course for a majority in the 129-strong Scottish parliament: SNP – 67 MSPs (+3) Reform – 25 MSPs (+25) Labour – 15 MSPs (-7) Lib Dems – 8 MSPs (+4) Tory - 7 MSPs (-24) Green – 7 MSPs (-1) Changes compared to 2021
Looking at the potential electoral implications of letting 16-17 year olds vote- one group that could really benefit is independent candidates. Places with the most people aged 16-17 also had the strongest performance of independent / WPB in the 2024 election
