Dillon Appleman

Not very impressed by the 26 RB class but I'm a big fan of Demond Claiborne (Wake Forest)

In his rookie season, Nate Boerkircher will have... ___ Receptions ___ Touchdowns ___ Yards

He says that "heavier TE sets are going to be the trend" which they want to participate in. Let's try to figure out if this tracks. Last year, the Jaguars were 6th in 11 personnel usage (65%) outside of the red zone. This makes sense; they have one of the best 11 personnel groups (Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, BTJ, Brenton Strange) in the NFL. Accordingly, they were 8th in EPA/Pass, but 21st in EPA/Rush. They were about average in run vs. pass split. So let's start adding tight ends. 12 personnel was the only other personnel they ran more than 35 times outside of the red zone. They were 14th in EPA/Pass, but had the same exact figure as when they were in 11. For context, the Jets (not great offense) and the Bills (really good offense), ran 11 at a similar rate. They all passed at about the same rate in that personnel when outside of the red zone. The Jets saw a 109% improvement when passing in 12 personnel. The Bills saw a 33% improvement. The Jaguars saw a 0% improvement. All three teams passed at about the same rate in 12. But what about rushing? The Jets were 83% worse at running the ball in 12. Not shocking, they had a paltry passing offense already and teams did not respect it, so they were able to take a slight advantage in passing. The Bills? They saw a 69% decline in rushing. Teams were WAY overindexing for a team that was immensely effective in rushing from 11, and the Bills were able to take advantage of teams passing. The Jaguars saw a 450% decline in the running game. Now you may say to me, "Sam, of course, this is why they added a blocking tight end. They could not run the ball effectively, so teams didn't respect the run and send out base". Not so fast. Teams actually trotted out 4 or less defensive backs at the 11th highest rate when the Jaguars had 2 or more tight ends on the field. So they were "respecting it" at an above average rate... So it has to come back around... they weren't making teams pay with the pass when they went base. The answer is clear. Hunter Long had the highest target rate amongst the rest of their tight ends, and he only had a 5.38% target rate, who played only 9 games. So teams didn't even worry about the 5th eligible, which meant that the Jags didn't see the boost that the Bills... or even the Jets saw from passing out of 12. Coincidentally, Nate Boerkircher's target rate at Texas A&M was 6%. This tells a cohesive story. 1. James Gladstone sees the league going to heavier bodies. 2. The Jaguars did not excel with heavier bodies on the field last year. 3. Defenses trotted out base against the Jags heavier body sets last year at an above league average rate. 4. The Jags secondary tight ends could be safely ignored in the passing game, allowing for the Jags run game getting killed while also not seeing the boost in the passing game that other teams saw. 5. To address this, the Jaguars spent their 2nd Rounder to replace Johnny Mundt (their 16 game TE2) with... a TE who didn't provide receiving value in college? And probably will have to adjust to run blocking in the NFL? All kudos to James Gladstone if he hits on this pick and I hope he does because it will become a fascinating data point to study, but if he were to ask me my thoughts pre-draft, the above is what I would present.