dingerderby.io

WHAT A DAY!!! All-Star users betting a $10 unit size yesterday just made $11,000+ Let's see the S&P beat those returns. See for yourself dingerderby.io/results

@WereSoBakk Update: your DM is closed, see the example below:

@dingerderby_io Yeah, great show some samples of whats on your site….. can’t see myself pay for a subscription blindly

Reminder: the model doesn't care that your guy "is due." It cares about barrel rate, pitch mix, and who's standing on the bump. Picks drop every day, 45 minutes before first pitch.

@WereSoBakk No problem, we can add an example of what a day's picks look like on the site. Check your DM, I just sent you an example while we work on getting it up there.

@MichaelGrz70826 I'm saying follow positive edge. Ohtani didn't homer for 11 straight games but was priced in at hitting one every 3 games, that's Vegas exploiting you. We explain our thesis really well on our site's "How It Works" page. Check out our results section too dingerderby.io/theory

@dingerderby_io So what are you saying? You said what not to do, but didn't say what to do. Said don't bet Ohtani every night (clearly) but he homered tonight. Provide some guidance.

This is exactly why you have to follow edge! Shohei is arguably the best player in the league, but that doesn't mean he's going to hit a homerun every single game. Find weakness in the sports books and hammer them!

@FDSportsbook YES!

A MASSIVE DAY OF DINGERS! Did you cash a home run bet? 🤑

@block_durgen_22 Yes, we focus on finding high edge homerun props. When you go to the site and view our live and historical record you will see the exact props we chose.

@dingerderby_io It looks great, love the additional theory you added here. Are you focused entirely on homerun picks?

Come check out our new and improved website! - New layout - New theory page for the sophisticated bettor - Now Optimized for the phone dingerderby.io

Bang! Our pro package got him today. 24.9% Prob with an 8.5% Edge Dinger Derby Pro

The shape we expect: a slow grind in April, with bigger run-ups landing May through July as offensive environment heats up and the model gets more rolling-window data on each batter. So far, on-pace. Eyes on the next 60 days.

Full-season ROI in our 2023–2025 backtests: 2023: +41% 2024: +28% 2025: +50% Live 2026 sits at +35.6%, right inside that band. Hit rate ceiling for HR props is structurally low (≈14%), so consistency at that bar is what compounds.

36 days into live Pro-package betting in 2026. +86.22u | 14.5% hit rate | +35.6% ROI How does that compare to our last 3 seasons at the same point? What does the historical patter say about what's next? 🧵

Carter Jensen lands at #3 on today's board for a reason, and the case starts with the price tag. The market has him at +790, an 11.2% implied chance of leaving the yard, but the model pegs his true number closer to 23%. That's a 12-point edge, only two other plays beat it across all 119 straight picks today. The matchup is where the pick earns its keep. Joey Cantillo has surrendered a home run to roughly one in every 13 batters he's faced over the last two years (7.88% HR/BF), more than double what an average big-league arm gives up. He does it with a fastball that sits at just 91.8 mph and an arsenal that leans heavily, almost half his pitches, on off-speed stuff in the high 70s. Changeups and curveballs at 78 mph are great when they're located; when they hang, they end up in the seats. Jensen, riding five home runs in his last 100 plate appearances, is squarely in the demographic that makes a pitcher like this nervous. The honest caveats deserve their moment. Jensen's average exit velocity over the last 30 days (83.3 mph) and his hard-hit rate (25.4%) are both modest, the H2H sample is tiny but ugly, two weak ground balls back on April 8, and the conditions aren't doing him any favors. Kauffman is a fair-to-stingy park for the long ball, the temperature is sitting in the low 60s, and the wind has a slight 3 mph component blowing in from center, with a stiffer 10 mph crosswind on top of it. None of those are tailwinds. But none of them are decisive against a +790 number, either. You're not asking for a coin flip here; you're asking for one mistake pitch in four or five trips against a homer-prone lefty with a hittable fastball and a heavy diet of breaking stuff. The pitcher gives them up, the hitter has been finding the seats, and the market is pricing this almost twelve points light. That's the pick.

Trying out some longer format content to highlight different aspects of the model. Check it out! x.com/dingerderby_io…

Arozarena. Duran. Ozuna. All three went deep and the round-robin helped our Full Season All-Star package finish +111 units on the day. We won’t tell you this happens every day. It doesn’t. But when it lines up, it lines up. And we're just getting started. dingerderby.io/results