Phantom Economics

The BofA Global Fund Manager Survey shows a record jump in equity allocations.

I have been seeing a lot of comments lately about the break between UofM Sentiment and economic data. See quoted tweet below. There is also a big gap between UofM and CB measures. I am writing a full discussion on this but one of the interesting points is that there is a large political bias to the UofMs measure that is impacting its reading. (Worth noting that since the Iran crisis started, all affiliations are getting weaker = inflation).

JUST IN: 50% chance S&P 500 hits 8,000 this year

🚨The 16% CAGR (net of 1.5%/15%) Hohn investing playbook In five rules: 1. Own monopolies and oligopolies. Pricing power matters more than revenue growth. 2. Concentrate. Fifteen positions, not five hundred. 3. Hold for years, not quarters. Average holding period: nine. 4. Never short. The investor on the other side controls your destiny. 5. Avoid anything AI can disrupt. The list of investable companies is shrinking. Two examples of the rules in practice: - Just sold his entire $8 billion Microsoft position when Anthropic's AI productivity tools started threatening Office and Teams. - Still holds Moody's. Buffett told him: "if the financial crisis didn't kill it, nothing will." 2,924% returns over twenty-three years. Five rules, six analysts, fifteen stocks.

I feel like very few are paying attention to this inflation coming back story…. Then it “came out of nowhere” It’s right here, right now

The number of ships able to transit the Strait of Hormuz will return to the pre-war level in a 30 day period, the naval blockade must be completely lifted within 30 days according to the understanding, if the naval blockade is not lifted, no change will occur in the Strait of Hormuz - Tasnim