@Swordfishv44183 Copper is the only one telling the truth here
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Phantom Economics
5.2K posts
Phantom Economics
@docfiscal
Ghostwriter of fiscal misfortunes
Chicago Katılım Haziran 2023
136 Takip Edilen95 Takipçiler
Phantom Economics retweetledi
I also posted about this two days ago. The signs are literally everywhere. 👇🏼
“The last time this happened was during the dot-com bubble.”
Augur Infinity@AugurInfinity
🇺🇸 The cyclically adjusted earnings yield is now below the long-term real yield implied by Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The last time this happened was during the dot-com bubble.
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@Analyst_G Financial assets literally worthless? Not how this plays out
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And that's how secular disinflationary cycle makes its final end...
Economy can't work with such inequalities and financial assets will be forced to adjust to give it back towards 2-3% on example below (top 0.1% wealth) because it has to reborn the middle class and it happens ONLY when wealth equality is being initiated, and that can ONLY happen when financial assets will become literally worthless.
I know it soulds crazy but that's how it works.
PS : Not 70s as you see :
Kalshi@Kalshi
JUST IN: Top 1% of Americans hold as much wealth as bottom 90% combined
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@BobEUnlimited @thedailyshot Classic incentive problem. They deploy at any price because fees are on AUM not returns
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Surging Series A deal valuations make it increasingly difficult traditional VCs to generate enough returns to justify their hefty fees. And yet they keep allocating at near any price, because that's what they are incentivized to do. h/t @thedailyshot
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@Kacper_PK_CH every macro guy turns into a silver bug at the top
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Inflows spiking into weakness never ends well
RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research@RenMacLLC
As my friend @WalterDeemer says, "When it's time to buy, you won't want to". That's NOT what's happening in $SMH. Inflows are spiking as the stocks weaken; bottoms are historically built on fear, not greed.
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@niveshaay Centum angle gets overlooked. Components on every ISRO mission is sticky revenue
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India's private space story is no longer about one company.✨
Skyroot's successful launch captured attention, but it also highlighted something bigger - an ecosystem where different companies are solving different problems..
Pixxel has already secured a $476 million NASA contract, while established players like Centum continue to supply 300-500 components on every ISRO mission. The opportunity is becoming broader, not narrower.
A stronger ecosystem creates room for multiple winners.🤝
#Niveshaay #Pixxel #SpaceEconomy #SpaceTech #DeepTech #Investing
📷
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Phantom Economics retweetledi
GS’s Bobby Molavi on the current market / valuations:
“In 1929…Irving Fisher, one of the great US economists, argued stock prices in the US had reached a ‘permanently high plateau’. Many years later, another great, Alan Greenspan, warned of ‘irrational exuberance’. Both turned out to be wrong in different ways…one in terms of the ‘permanence’, one in terms of the how long exuberance can stretch or last. As we look at 2026…we witness a moment in time…with many things changing - both technologically, politically, socially, environmentally - to name but a few. One thing is certain…stock prices have not been this expensive since 1929….the only other time they came close was 1999/2000
How expensive is expensive? To answer this you have to agree on the metric we are using. Is it PE, CAPE, EV/EBITDA, ARR, FCF, TAM, Clicks, Gigawatts….what adjustments, what accounting methodology….how far out etc etc. If we agree that CAPE is a fair and well balanced metric to follow….the FT points out that the S&P 500 has data that goes back to 1881….. “Over that period, the mean Cape has been 17.8, which indicates a healthy average real return of 5.6 per cent”…the FT goes on to flag “There have also been three huge peaks: September 1929, at 32.6, December 1999, at 44.2 and, crucially, July 2026, at 41.4.” Gulp. Perhaps we can turn to the sage of Omaha for reassurance by cross referencing the ‘Buffett indicator” of total value of stock market relative to GDP……at over 200% in 2026…..this is more than 2x the UK and at an extreme high vs history. Double gulp. What could go wrong?”
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Miami more expensive than NYC. Stagflation is here to stay
Cardiff Garcia@CardiffGarcia
Damn, Miami (and Tampa) inflation has been unbelievable
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$GOOG is developing a brand new chip to run its models more efficiently so that it can ease its compute shortage a bit.
And the market is still skeptical about compute demand?
We just don’t have enough compute.
$MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $CRWV $NBIS
Wall St Engine@wallstengine
$GOOGL is developing a new AI chip that could run Gemini models 6 to 10 times more efficiently than its latest TPUs. The chip, internally called “Frozen v2,” would bake parts of Gemini’s architecture directly into silicon, reducing data movement and the number of decisions required during inference. Google is targeting deployment as early as 2028 to ease its AI compute shortage, though the design would trade flexibility for major gains in speed and power efficiency. Source: The Information
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15.8M sq ft leased, vacancy at 5-year lows. India broadening beyond tech is the right move but I'd verify the JLL numbers. Lots of bad data out there lately
Indian Diplomacy@IndianDiplomacy
India emerging as preferred destination for high-value Global Capability Centres. With world-class talent, a thriving innovation ecosystem, and strong policy support, multinational companies are expanding their engineering, AI, and product development operations in India. Read more: 🔗 economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/servi…
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stagflation trade still working
Shirley@YShirley_XAUUSD
#Silver Silver continued its rebound in Asian markets on Monday, rising to around $56.80 per ounce, marking its second consecutive day of gains. However, given the recent rapid rise in oil prices and expectations of a tightening Federal Reserve policy, silver's further upside potential faces certain challenges. As a precious metal, silver possesses both financial and industrial attributes; its price is not only influenced by safe-haven demand but is also highly sensitive to real interest rates and the dollar's performance. #XAGUSD The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has fueled market risk aversion, providing some support for silver. However, inflationary pressures stemming from rising energy prices are reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even further tighten policy.
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@KinesisMonetary @MoraisPercy Stagflation is here to stay, gold won't stay low
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🥇 Gold prediction winner!
Gold closed the week at $4,018 - just holding on in bearish territory.
Shoutout to @MoraisPercy for calling it closest with $3,920 - only $98 off! 👏
Do you think gold can push back above $4,100 this week, or will the pressure continue?
Kinesis Money@KinesisMonetary
📊 Tuesday Price Prediction 🥇 Gold started this week at $4,073/oz. Where does it close on Friday? Drop your prediction below 👇 Closest answer wins a shoutout on Monday 🏆
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Phantom Economics retweetledi
Markets didn't just build our economy, they built our morality. Economists now see morality as functional, a tool that evolved to make cooperation with strangers possible.
Societies built on tight kinship networks reward loyalty and suspicion of outsiders. Societies built on trade with strangers reward tairness, guilt, and trust in people you'll never meet. The evidence spans continents: folklore from nearly a thousand preindustrial societies, Village-level data from Ethiopia, hunters in Greenland, survey data from sixty countries. The pattern holds everywhere: when making a living depends on trusting strangers, we learn to value them.
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Phantom Economics retweetledi
Good Morning from Germany, where factory-gate inflation offers a hopeful signal for consumers. Producer prices slowed to 1.8% YoY in June from 2.2% in May, below the June CPI of 2.3%, and fell 0.3% MoM. Crucially, German producers charged 2.2% less for consumer goods YoY, led by food prices down 4.5% YoY; a positive signal for retail inflation.
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@C_Barraud Inflation expectations stuck at 3% while lending tightens. Stagflation mode in the euro area.
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🇪🇺 Euro-Area Firms Faced Rising Interest Rates in Second Quarter - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
x.com/C_Barraud/stat…
Christophe Barraud🛢🐳@C_Barraud
🇪🇺 #ECB PUBLISHES SAFE SURVEY - BBG *ECB: FIRMS SIGNALED SMALL INCREASE IN FINANCING NEEDS *EURO-AREA FIRMS FACED TIGHTER RATES, LOAN CONDITIONS IN 2Q: ECB ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/…
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Mass panic on Wall Street
Jim Cramer@jimcramer
Futures breaking Monday morning slide pattern. Welcome
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If HSBC’s Emerging Markets thesis plays out, these are 5 mutual funds worth keeping on your watchlist (not recommendations):
1️⃣ PGIM India Emerging Markets Equity FoF
2️⃣ Edelweiss Emerging Markets Opportunities Offshore Fund
3️⃣ Edelweiss ASEAN Equity Offshore Fund
4️⃣ Edelweiss Europe Dynamic Equity Offshore Fund
5️⃣ Invesco India Global Equity Income FoF
These funds provide exposure to markets like China, Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil, ASEAN, and Europe, helping investors diversify beyond India. Availability for fresh investments may vary because of overseas investment limits.
#MutualFunds #EmergingMarkets #GlobalInvesting #Diversification #IndiaInvesting #WealthCreation #StockMarket #Investing #Finance #AssetAllocation
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