Dogwater Capital

Needed some space vibes in the portfolio. Screw it, $HLEO to the moon

@Youngerd1972 They had the Zoom call last night as you can see on the ILASP website. Here's some of the details from someone watching stocktwits.com/AaronRho/messa…

@dogwatercap Where is that reported?

$IMP.TO $ITSMF Well it turned out Blott is indeed a scammer. At least we have an answer now. Got out of there and moving on. Tough day for the portfolio.

I’ve got a big cash position now with no fresh ideas…anyone got interesting micro/small caps?

@Youngerd1972 They placed behind a Chinese company on all the technical scores and I think had worse bids too

@dogwatercap No news? What’s happened?

Is the peace deal in the room with us

$LION ripper! 🦁🦁

@faicalio Sorry I wrote it poorly, I meant valuation is tied to indo not subscription revenue. Trying to say that I don’t trust any growth projections from them until I see it happen. Short to medium term this thing is also gonna move almost completely on indo news so it’s volatile.

Fair point on the guidance I was watching that too and was disappointed. Not understanding the the subscription revenue piece tied to Indonesia ? I’ve done some work on that side of the business and it’s all insurance and enterprise analytics deals (not tied to their project based biz like indo), growing nicely. If they get to 10M ARR a 12x multiple would make up their valuation and that’s actually decent if not on the lower side for this type of business. Great thoughts let’s stay sharp on this. His planet micro cap talk was decent highly suggest if u haven’t tuned in

Intermap Technologies $IMP.TO Thoughts …..? They've spent 20+ years building the world's most precise elevation dataset: NEXTMap. That data is now the backbone of how insurers price flood and nat-cat risk. You can't replicate it. Every foot of it cost real money to collect, and they own it outright. The core business is selling subscriptions to that data (InsitePro, NEXTMap licenses), which grew 29% last year to $5.2M. That's the recurring engine. Small but compounding. Total revenue looks terrible ($10.6M, down 40%) but that's entirely timing on government contracts, not demand pull back. The math: Build a DCF on the subscription segment alone at 25% growth and a conservative FCF margin, and you get C$2.14/share. You're buying the recurring data business at an 15-18% discount and getting everything else for free. What's "everything else": • Indonesia ILASP: $200M contract, down-selected for all 4 lots. In negotiation. • US DoD: fully funded, in contracting. Just delayed. • Malaysia flood mapping: already awarded, revenue hitting in 2026. • New verticals: autonomous vehicle navigation, 5G signal propagation. • $22.5M cash on the balance sheet. The risk: "Coming months" on Indonesia has been vague before. Another slip and the stock stays flat while you wait. It's a micro-cap with thin liquidity, so you don't get in and out cleanly. The bet: The subscription business alone justifies the price. Indonesia is an asymmetric kicker. If one of the government contracts closes, the stock re-rates.

@CryptoBismole Definitely not

@dogwatercap Spcx the easiest short in history?

What is more insane - WeWork’s community-adjusted EBITDA or $SPCX paying Elon based on a million people inhabiting Mars?

@CryptoBismole You gotta watch the WeWork show on Apple TV

@dogwatercap Honestly I had to look that up, but both equally absurd

Is there anyone who actually believes in the SpaceX valuation? All I see is the pumpers themselves + people making fun of other unnamed people for believing in it. $SPCX

@faicalio I still own a fair amount but I wouldn’t rely on Blott’s projections for anything. The subscriptions revenue is not enough to carry the valuation and it’s almost all tied to indo at this point.

@faicalio He was pretty dishonest about guidance last year. There was a period where it was impossible to meet their projections and they still maintained it till the last minute when he was forced to rug the stock. Every other contract he’s ever talked about has amounted to nothing.

@andreevdan18 Thanks - honestly seems like kind of a complicated mess but also cheap. Not sure if worth the headache though

@dogwatercap .... especially given the front-run expenses we're seeing right now. Slowly working on the Part 3 write-up for the Journal while I wait to hear back on a few questions I sent over to management a while ago.

As referenced in Pt. 1, management has now moved forward with step 2 of the liquidity event and initiated a $10 million buyback. If bought at today’s prices (~$5.03), $MLCI will have retired about 27% of shares through both events! open.substack.com/pub/andreevdan…

Some poor souls going to get obliterated on this $RDW pump

$MSGM rallying with volume…

@lilnickysmith Why do you dislike the company?

$MSGM you gotta know your crap...

@arionDhart @VigneshMahadev9 Also steam has a similar split on PC already so I assume console would be comparable

@arionDhart @VigneshMahadev9 Will have to read over the 8-K again to see how it’s laid out/what’s specified. The TAM is still quite a bit larger on console and the company valuation is still reasonable even with this news as it was trading at like 4x earnings before.

Why is $MSGM dumping? Another good quarter. Same thing happened last Q after it pumped