Jonas

@Muck4Value_RWN @ACR_POKER Wow thanks. I knew AQQJ was double suited, but I looked at the runout about 15 times and felt confident one of the clubs was a spade, no idea why

@donut604 @ACR_POKER turned the flush. AQQJ was double suited spade and clubs. I had to watch it several times.

🗣Wild Action at $200/$400 Pot Limit Omaha on ACR Poker. Max rake : $3 😁 Check out this hand👇

@theGreenCoding @dunik_7 Hey, very cool project. Hard to know how good 85% is without knowing how big the favourites were. Would be very interesting to see how the model performed vs vig free pre-match betting lines.

a student took the ELO rating system from chess ran it through 95,491 tennis matches over 43 years, and trained an XGBoost model that predicts winners with 85% accuracy he tested it on the Australian Open 2025 completely outside the training data 99 out of 116 matches correct called every single Sinner win through the entire tournament the champion, before the first ball was hit no team, no funding, a laptop and free CSVs from the internet this is the best breakdown of a real sports prediction model I've seen study it or feed it to your AI agent

@JonAguiar @j0hnwang Assuming it’s taker-only fees on kalshi users also have the extra option to attempt a limit order at top of book and save fees + spread/vig

@JonAguiar @j0hnwang I think given any fee structure though it just comes down to math which is better/worse for users. No need to care if it goes to market makers or a book, or whether or not they take risk. Market makers have risk as well.

Sportsbooks are house machines designed to max extract. Prediction markets are neutral infrastructure that actually protects the consumer.

@JonAguiar @j0hnwang Each individual bettor punting on a game is much better off paying the 1% spread to a market maker than 5-10% they’d pay to a Sportsbook, right?

@j0hnwang The money flows from 99% of users to the market makers with Kalshi taking a risk free cut in the middle instead of flowing from 99% of bettors to the house which experiences variance.

@BradN_Braulio84 Other potential spot to fold AA: Final table, bunch of 6-10bb stacks, bb has 1bb, we have 40bb, steep payouts. Better if someone else also has 2-3bb. I might walk BB here in order to increase fold equity for all my future shoved before short stacks bust.

@BradN_Braulio84 If someone had 0-2bb I think we can fold AA. It’s far too easy for shortstacks to get shoves through for 6bb here. We won’t call anything and if the others do the same this bubble can take a long time. It’s not the same as calling off with AA which is much worse imo

Reading some of these comments really makes me question how frequently people actually understand satellite poker tourneys... shoving is an obvious answer for a beginner poker player... but for someone who understands satellite tourneys, u have to understand there is actually equity in folding Aces in this spot, and for practically nobody to make this reference kinda blows my mind... 5 players left... sitting in commanding 2nd place spot on the stone bubble, and not one reference that I saw to just fold kinda baffles me tbh... just saying 🤔 🧐... for what its worth I like the jam in this spot... but hypothetically if u jam and get called and lose, ur now 5th of 5... how did not one person reference the bubble, nor the concept of the equity in folding? ... This sich is definitely not as simple as some of these comments sond like... ur talking about 50 bux or a 5K main event seat on the stone bubble? ... as Dara mentioned, he is far from "locked up", but for nobody to reference the equity in folding in this spot is kinda wild #Baffled ☠️🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️

@BradN_Braulio84 Now extrapolate forward. They get all their shoves through for a few orbits and get given walks even when you have AA in the sb. How long now before you are no longer 2/5 and instead similarly at risk to the pack? Still, AA is the only hand that I think is an obvious shove. 2/2

@BradN_Braulio84 I don’t think this is right. I get the concept but consider this. You clearly understand that everyone should be calling off VERY tight vs a shove (if at all). That leads to an insane amount of fold equity for the shortstacks even when they are down to 3bb. 1/2

@apestyles … he spends 15 mins trying to convince ppl before the police walk in and arrest him for selling counterfeit skytrain (subway) tickets!! He’s dq’d and we’re itm!!! 🤣

@apestyles 2 years later $300 satty to $3300 main bubble. 33 left 32 seats. Shortstack at my table managed to get clock stopped to try to convince everyone to pay $100 to bubble so everyone gets almost 3k. I said I have a seat locked up but I don’t mind if everyone else gives him $100…

~10 years ago, €500 Partouche in Cannes. Bubble. 10 left, 9 paid. I’m top 3 in chips. 3 shorties to my left. Table’s insanely soft. For instance, SB shoves 5bb. BB folds KJo face up. They just want someone to bust. Now the full table agrees to give the bubble their full €500 back - and they ask me. Do I veto & look like a dick? Or go along & disrespect ICM and the poker Gods?

@tombos21 @vitrovic1 Theoretically you could have 5 players run incredibly bad and the other 15 run above ev but that’s not what you meant

@tombos21 @vitrovic1 Ok nevermind I think I just understood!

Most MTT/Spin players run bad. This is not magic, it's just a consequence of the payout structure: Median Result < Mean Result. Thought experiment: 1000 player tournament, 15% paid, everyone is the same skill. - After 1 MTT, 85% of players will run below EV. - After 100 MTTs, 66% of players will run below EV. - After 1000 MTTs, 54% of players will run below EV. It takes a long time for the median to "catch up" with the mean, and since most players don't put in serious volume, the majority of players will run below lifetime EV.

@chasedownleads Is @nathanfielder your business advisor?

Someone keeps feeding laxatives to the birds in the streets Meanwhile, my power washing business is having a record year Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good

MASSIVE COOLER ALERT🚨 On a very wet board @rampagepoker squares off with @jeremyausmus and @donut604, and two massive hands are about to clash. 💥

@rampagepoker @SamSmit06209828 @StakeKings Maybe that is what you mean though — investors will break even if you play less than 50? To be clear I don’t think you would do it, just saying that leaves the door open for you to be stuck 200k, not meet the bullet requirement, and not have to pay out on your losses

@rampagepoker @SamSmit06209828 @StakeKings Ok nice, I misinterpreted it as “they get their money back”. Gl

Only .8% has been “sold” of my anti-sweat package with only a few days remaining. I guess people actually think I’m good at poker after all? Where are the nonbelievers at? @StakeKings