Douwe Osinga

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Douwe Osinga

Douwe Osinga

@dosinga

Software engineer, Traveller, Entrepreneur, Science enthusiast, currently @block leading the Goose Open Source Team

Miami Katılım Temmuz 2007
329 Takip Edilen1.7K Takipçiler
Douwe Osinga
Douwe Osinga@dosinga·
Yeah that. Open models are the way to go
Hedgie@HedgieMarkets

🦔Microsoft canceled its internal Claude Code licenses this week after token-based billing made the cost untenable, even for a company with effectively infinite cloud resources. Uber's CTO sent an internal memo warning the company burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in just four months. American AI software prices have jumped 20% to 37%, and GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is dropping flat-rate plans for usage-based billing across its products. My Take The AI subsidy era is ending in real time. The same company that put $13 billion into OpenAI and built the Azure infrastructure powering most of Anthropic's compute just looked at the bill from a competitor's coding tool and decided it was not worth paying. That is not a productivity failure on Anthropic's end. Token-based pricing is forcing every enterprise customer to confront the actual cost of running these models at scale, and the number turns out to be far higher than the flat-rate experiments suggested. This ties directly to my Gemini Flash post yesterday. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months. Enterprises that built workflows assuming AI costs would keep falling are now watching annual budgets evaporate in months. Two outcomes look likely from here. Either enterprises scale back AI usage to fit budgets, which slows the revenue ramp the labs need to justify their valuations ahead of IPOs, or the labs cut prices and absorb the losses, which makes the unit economics worse at exactly the wrong moment. Both paths land in the same place, the numbers stop working, and somebody has to take the writedown. Hedgie🤗

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Douwe Osinga
Douwe Osinga@dosinga·
In 2018 I took an Uberpool across Manhattan for $1.78, less than the subway. Today the same ride is $20 and nobody is surprised. Todays equivalent is @claudeai 's 200 dollar per month plan. 3 reasons the end of free tokens is near & what to do about it: douwe.com/blog/2026/0518/
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Douwe Osinga
Douwe Osinga@dosinga·
@lucasmeijer Interesting. To me that post read like recycled marketing material written by an AI
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Lucas Meijer
Lucas Meijer@lucasmeijer·
Amazing post. Giving LLM's narrow tasks, and composing those as lego blocks gives much better results than "just ask the model". great example of what the lego blocks & composition look like for a security scanner.
Cloudflare@Cloudflare

Cloudflare's security team spent the last few weeks testing Anthropic's Mythos against fifty of our own repositories. What we learned about offensive AI, why faster patching is the wrong reaction, and what the architecture around vulnerabilities has to look like next. cfl.re/49BRUqW

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Douwe Osinga
Douwe Osinga@dosinga·
@davidbyttow that sounds wise, but is it applicable here? the AI revolution that is underway is not gradual, not abstract and is immediately threatening. We're in a Willy E Coyote moment where we are over the abyss we just haven't noticed
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Douwe Osinga
Douwe Osinga@dosinga·
@mikebutcher it has the potential to move the "power" even more from labor to capital. if the agents manage the institutional knowledge, job safety weakens a lot
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Douwe Osinga
Douwe Osinga@dosinga·
@Dan_Jeffries1 Why would the chinese models stay open, do you think? seems to me more like a late to game move, which is usually followed with a quick closing up.
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Daniel Jeffries
Daniel Jeffries@Dan_Jeffries1·
I don't think people understand just how bad it will be if an American open source champion doesn't emerge soon and the big labs succeed in creating modern East Indian companies and ban open models on moronic national security grounds. "If a credible Western open frontier player does not emerge, the consequences cascade quickly. This is the inverse of the early Internet wave. In the 2000s and 2010s, Western companies — Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft — dominated globally while China carved out its own walled garden. "The AI version flips that dynamic on its head. "Without a credible Western open frontier player, the only open models capable of running entire economies are made in China. If U.S. policy further restricts Chinese open-weight access on national-security grounds, the U.S. ends up with two or three closed Cathedrals serving the U.S. market — and the rest of the world picks the AI stack that is free, capable, self-hostable, and not embargoed. "Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America, India, the Middle East. "Roughly six billion people. "Chinese open models become the global default by 2030, and the United States ends up technologically isolated from the majority of the world’s AI users. "We would have done it to ourselves."
Bill Gurley@bgurley

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Douwe Osinga
Douwe Osinga@dosinga·
@bernhardsson Is that optimistic? People liking technology having fewer children, people liking extreme religions having more children can definitely impact evolution, but is that the direction you are rooting for?
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Douwe Osinga
Douwe Osinga@dosinga·
PVV got 17% of the Dutch vote. Through first-past-the-post, they win 158 of 343 districts. Through ranked-choice, 39. Under a median-voter rule, 1. Same ballots, very different countries. Democracy by another word. douwe.com/blog/2026/0516/
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Henrique Cruz
Henrique Cruz@HenrM_Cruz·
Remember Google Bard? Google closed at $99 the day Wall Street decided it had lost the AI race. The stock has 4x'd since then. Market vibes.
Henrique Cruz tweet media
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Douwe Osinga
Douwe Osinga@dosinga·
@cosminnegruseri I think you see this a lot all over. We had some test that was more performative than qualitative but worked because it was proof of work. Now the AI can do the work, so the proof is gone. Same with resumes and linkedin posts being throughleadery -- ugh.
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Cosmin Negruseri
Cosmin Negruseri@cosminnegruseri·
as much as they are hated now, people will miss leetcode interviews
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Douwe Osinga
Douwe Osinga@dosinga·
2.6B open source model generating up to a minute high quality video from one frame? That's insane! Maybe there is something to these world models after all. Can't wait to get my hands on the actual model nvlabs.github.io/Sana/WM/
GIF
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Douwe Osinga
Douwe Osinga@dosinga·
well, I'm off google maps API now: theregister.com/ai-ml/2026/05/… -- it seems so weird to me that the default is that a maps API key can also be used for expensive inference and that @Google doesn't allow keys without billing and no budget
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