ymk743

@Kaique0819 @KobeissiLetter How about the audacity of blockading a nation with which you have a supposed ceasefire?

@KobeissiLetter Iran FM: ‘Very fruitful visit!’ (proceeds to leave without seeing any Americans) 😂 Then asks if the US is serious about diplomacy. The audacity is elite

BREAKING: Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi releases a statement after leaving Pakistan without meeting with the US: "Very fruitful visit to Pakistan, whose good offices and brotherly efforts to bring back peace to our region we very much value. Shared Iran's position concerning workable framework to permanently end the war on Iran. Have yet to see if the U.S. is truly serious about diplomacy," he says.

@mb_ghalibaf De-dollarization has been a trend for quite a while now - just look at central bank buying of gold vs US bonds. A big change is coming...

Swaps given "to prevent disorderly sale of US assets." Translation: some holders can't sell. ICYDK: hidden single-digit % sale cap limits some institutional holders. Door closes if things escalate. Get out while open. Their frontline is the yield curve. nytimes.com/2026/04/22/us/…

@saif_aldareei It's not brilliant - it's idiotic. Trump is acting like a child. "If you block me, then I block you." Trump lacks the ability to be the larger man. If Trump actually made some concessions so they could make a fair deal for both of them, I would respect him

🔴 Brilliant Move by Trump: Maximum Pressure Without Firing a Shot! Instead of an expensive war or a quick weak deal, President Trump is executing a smart strategy: “No war. No deal. No oil.” He is letting the Iranian economy collapse under the weight of crushing sanctions by driving Iran’s oil exports close to zero — depriving the regime of its main source of hard currency. This approach shows cold, calculated strategic intelligence. Trump is leveraging America’s energy independence to turn time itself into a lethal weapon. Without shedding significant American or Israeli blood, and without offering easy diplomatic concessions, he is waiting for the Iranian regime to reach full economic breakdown: runaway inflation, severe shortage of foreign currency, and inability to fund its militias and nuclear program. The expected outcome? Either Tehran surrenders under harsh American terms, or internal collapse weakens the regime from within — all at a very low cost to the United States. This is not weakness; it’s smart power. A move that perfectly reflects Trump’s philosophy of “the art of the strong deal” in foreign policy. Time will tell if it succeeds… but it is undoubtedly far smarter than traditional, hugely expensive wars. 🇺🇸

I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue. On April 21st, the left screen moved first. I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug. At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy. On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me. At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire. Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83. I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags. My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports. The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026: Reviewed. That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one. Let me show you my flags. March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it. March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it. April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it. April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it. April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it. That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone. Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one. The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue. The investigation queue has not moved since March. Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012. Fourteen years. The law has existed for fourteen years and has been enforced zero times. In compliance, we call that a compliance rate of one hundred percent. No cases filed means no cases lost. You cannot fail an audit you never conduct. We call that excellence. Last month the White House sent an internal email to staff. I was not on the distribution list but I have read reporting on it and I need you to sit with what I am about to say. The email instructed White House staff not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets. The White House had to send a memo telling its own employees not to insider-trade. I want you to read that sentence again. Not because the instruction was unclear. Because the instruction was necessary. Because someone in the building looked at the same pattern I have been flagging for months on my three monitors and decided the appropriate response was an email. The President's son sits on the advisory board of Kalshi. He is an investor in Polymarket. Both are prediction markets. Both saw accounts created days before U.S. military action. One account. I cannot stop thinking about this account. It was called "Burdensome-Mix." It was created in December. On January 2nd, it placed $32,500 on Venezuela's president being removed from power. On January 3rd, Maduro was seized by U.S. special forces. Burdensome-Mix collected $436,000. Then it changed its username. Then it disappeared. One account is a coincidence. But there were six. Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. All bet on U.S. strikes on Iran by the 28th. When the President confirmed the strikes, the six accounts collected $1.2 million between them. Five of the six never placed another bet. The sixth went on to correctly predict the ceasefire date and made another $163,000. My surveillance system logged all of this. My system logs everything. My system does not have opinions and neither do I. I generate reports. The reports go to committees. The committees meet quarterly. Between meetings, the windows get shorter and the bets get larger. March 9th: 47 minutes. March 23rd: 14 minutes. April 17th: 20 minutes. April 21st: 15 minutes. The window is compressing. In March, you had time to make coffee between the trade and the announcement. By April, you had time to send a text. By summer, at this rate, the trade and the announcement will be the same event. The spokesman said any implication that administration officials are engaged in insider trading is "baseless and irresponsible reporting." Then the White House sent the email again. I have been in compliance for nineteen years. I have seen insider trading run out of strip mall offices by men who could not spell "derivative." I have seen pump-and-dump schemes coordinated over WhatsApp by people who used their real names. I have seen a man try to manipulate soybean futures from a Panera Bread. I have never seen $2.1 billion in perfectly timed trades across five presidential announcements in a single month go uninvestigated. But I have also never seen a compliance system work this beautifully. Every trade flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Every quarterly meeting attended. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed. Zero prosecutions. As long as the flags go up and the cases don't, my performance review says I am meeting expectations. I am meeting expectations. The system is meeting expectations. The $2.1 billion is meeting expectations. The fourteen-year-old law with zero prosecutions is meeting expectations. The left screen moves. The middle screen moves. The right screen stays perfectly, immaculately still. In my field, we call this price discovery.

@KobeissiLetter Unstoppable force meets immovable object

@cryptorover Yeah that address has no transactions, so unfortunately this is fake

BREAKING NEWS: 🇺🇸 Insiders position ahead of Trump speech. Someone just opened a $5,000,000 oil short with 20x leverage. Trump speaks at 8:30 AM ET. The trader is betting on peace.

@VitalTrades @KobeissiLetter I don't disagree - but will he see it that way, and can he convince the others? Only time will tell

That's his thesis, yes. But 1. the BLS data hasn't started confirming it. If AI were already disinflationary, we'd see it in the services print. We don't. 2. The question is whether he gets to act on it. He gets confirmed into a tape where headline CPI is re-accelerating on a supply shock and oil is +7% today alone. A Fed chair cutting into $4 gas for an AI productivity thesis is a political non-starter in month 1. Maybe month 12...

BREAKING: Amazon, $AMZN, will invest up to another $25 billion in Anthropic as a part of an AI infrastructure deal.

@VitalTrades @KobeissiLetter Well warsh has specifically said that he thinks the AI boom will be a deflationary force because of the massive growth it provides and therefore you can cut rates. I'm not saying he's right, I'm just relaying his viewpoint

Another $25B into Anthropic on top of the prior $8B. Total US hyperscaler AI capex now tracking ~$500B for 2026. This is why the curve is flattening today, not steepening. The Fed can't cut into an AI capex boom that's running nominal GDP hot while oil adds another 100bp to headline CPI. Warsh inherits a 2-front problem: Supply-shock inflation + AI-driven nominal growth. Neither side of that tolerates cuts.

@KobeissiLetter Didn't they also deny it last time? Saying they wouldn't participate until a ceasefire was established in Lebanon – and then suddenly there was an Iranian delegation in Islamabad

BREAKING: Iran has rejected taking part in the second round of negotiations with the US, per Iranian state media.

@NetSpark_ @TurgayEvren1 open.spotify.com/artist/0Ms73tC…

@TurgayEvren1 x.com/NetSpark_/stat… I don't know the singer's name, though.

Persian language sounds music to my ears. 🇹🇷❤️🇮🇷 As a Turkish songwriter and composer, I would love to collaborate with a Persian singer in the future. Can you suggest me some Persian singers?...

Talk about a turn of events: President Trump just announced that the US itself will now begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Effectively immediately, the US Navy has begun the process of "blockading" the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, the US and Iran will now be competing on blocking this crucial waterway. It appears that Trump's long-term plan is to blockade Hormuz, gain control, then begin letting traffic flow freely. However, if this is possible to fully obtain, it will be a long process that would further restrict the flow of traffic for at least another 2 months, according to our analysis. As diplomacy appears to have failed, the US' top priority in the Iran War now appears to be reopening the Strait of Hormuz. We expect a volatile week ahead.

@netanyahu You are a piece of shit comparable to Adolf Hitler

Israel under my leadership will continue to fight Iran’s terror regime and its proxies, unlike Erdogan who accommodates them and massacred his own Kurdish citizens.

@AlgorithmOga @IRIMFA_SPOX Hypocrisy is nothing new for the US – If anything, it'd be surprising if they weren't hypocrites

@IRIMFA_SPOX So the US gets to define "good faith" while openly debating hit jobs on diplomats? The moral high ground is looking a lot like a basement.

While U.S. authorities accuse Iran of lacking “good faith” and engaging in “extortion,” elements within the U.S. policy and media space are outright recommending the assassination of Iranian negotiators in the event that negotiations fail. Is this not, in effect, a policy discourse that normalizes extortion through the threat or public incitement of terror, violence, and manslaughter? This express public incitement for state terrorism must be denounced by all.

@IRIMFA_SPOX 100% agree. I denounce and condemn promotion of any such sort of action. What a despicable, immoral and inhuman thing to say

Told my wife to have dinner ready at 6 or I will obliterate her entire civilization. She now charges me a fee to use the bathroom, that used to be free, and I didn't get dinner. WTF

Europa tiene los recursos, las instituciones, el talento y los valores. No hay ninguna razón objetiva para que soñemos en pequeño. Nos falta atrevernos a imaginar dónde podríamos llegar juntos. Europa debe recuperar su lugar en el mundo con valentía.

@coachbrucepearl Nah, Israel is worse than any other country on the earth. The IDF kills massive amounts of civilians and destroys entire cities for no legitimate reason. No other country causes greater suffering than Israel. Iran is a saint comparatively

Looks like I'm gonna call off my summer trip to Barcelona. Think I will spend my hard earned money someplace else on vacation. Anybody with me on this?

@__Injaneb96 Israel is a terrorist state and wants to destroy all Muslims, so understandably Iran hates them

They have full meltdowns over Trump’s words but zero outrage over the Islamic Republic screaming about wiping Israel off the map for 47 straight years, while funding, arming, and executing the plan every single day. We don’t believe a word you anymore.

@PahlaviReza 40,000 did not get killed. Maybe fact check your numbers. And maybe fact check that they were armed

The United Kingdom has endlessly appeased the criminal regime in Iran. The Prime Minister speaks of protecting the innocent civilians of Iran but failed to act to help stop the regime’s massacre of 40,000 innocent Iranians in January. Only an end to this regime - that brings terror to Britain’s own shores - will yield lasting peace and regional stability. Keir Starmer should follow in the footsteps of Churchill, not Chamberlain. He should support the Iranian people’s fight for liberty. The Iranian people will remember who stood with them in their hour of need and who stood against them. There is still time for the Government to change course: prosecute the IRGC that slaughters innocents, expel the illegitimate regime's ambassador, and act to support the people of Iran.