dre

Bring me home

@JacubTC @BuriedTreys How did you get +4.5 I thought they opened like +2

@BuriedTreys when you already have Illinois +4.5 and see the legendary BuriedTreys write up supporting your wager

Houston / Illinois (Houston) The undisputed King of the S16 games with the 4th and 6th best teams in KenPom facing off in a quasi-home game for the Cougs in Houston. Also the most fascinating schematic matchup of the Thurs/Fri games As I alluded to in a previous post, I can make a decent argument that Illinois may be the single worst matchup, especially offensively, for a Houston defense that has played exceptionally poor for their standards against top competition (3rd best defense falls to 45th vs T25 teams). If your team possesses any of the following, you are pretty much DOA against the Cougs: Rim reliance, transition reliance, dribble-heavy shot diet, lack of perimeter shooting, poor defensive rebounding, and don't protect the ball offensively Illinois doesn’t fall into ANY of those categories, and actually, they tend to excel in most of them. This iteration of Illinois plays much slower and is happy to entertain a half court, execution-based game. They’re 15th nationally in 3PRate, Top 10 in allowing turnovers offensively, and are even shooting 35% from the arc (which was their issue last year). They also have 3 different guys who can lead/initiate offense to alleviate some of that up-the-line pressure concerns, as well as being the biggest team in the country and an elite 2-way rebounding frontcourt. If you can keep Houston off the offensive glass, prevent them from creating live ball turnovers, and force them to play in the half court, you have as good a chance as anybody to beat that physical juggernaut. Illinois has the best 5-out spacing in the country to stress that Houston no-middle overload, in addition to having highly skilled bigs who are above average passers playing out of the short roll, while also having 3 ball handlers Go back and look at the way Illinois picked apart Nebraska's aggressive post doubles. While obviously a different caliber of athlete b/w Corn and the Cougs, Mirk was slowly backing down with his head swiveled like a Serbian Owl and MAX-baiting the double team in order to spray it crosscourt to an open weakside shooter. Can implement the same gameplan here with the auto Houston Monster double team on post-ups. The Illini don’t possess as many advantages defensively as Houston is more than willing to jack a ton of the contested, midrange jumpers that Illinois’ drop coverage will inevitably funnel them into. Which means A LOT of Houston’s offense will come down to Flemings/Uzan/Sharp midrange shotmaking. The efficiency fall-off for Flemings down the stretch of the season wasn’t as stark as I was expecting (only a couple % difference in true shooting), and if you look at his KP page, you’ll actually see the usage tick up against Tier A/B competition and again vs Tier A. Which means he's probably the single most important piece of Houston's offense in this game and could have the upside to score upwards of 25+. He just has to hit his shots. One of my issues with Illinois comes down to Underwood himself. While I certainly commend his adaptable scheme changes year-to-year, he has also not been a very good in-game manager at times, so what happens if they come out with the wrong gameplan akin to 'let's challenge Clingan early' (we saw how that went). That lack of in-game X's & O's management means Houston has the potential to jump on them early and never let up. I think Houston is also much more capable to mount a comeback with their style of play should Illinois get up early. Illinois is also 348th in Paper Tiger and both teams are outside the T300 in results consistency per Haslam, so that makes things a bit tougher to gauge. There aren't any drastic fall-offs with Illinois' analytics against top tiers but the rebounding numbers aren't quiteee as elite. In 13 games vs T25 teams, opponents shot 34.4% from 3 compared to 31% (35th nationally) Best guess is the venue location means Cougs take money for the majority of the next couple days, which is when I'll probably look to play back on Illinois. This won't be as hostile of an environment as Mackey or Breslin were, but Illinois did have a very soft road schedule in B10 play. Columbus was the toughest place they played at other than those 2 as well as Pinnacle Bank in Lincoln. FWIW, Houston is also the type of team where even the greatest schematic advantages can be tossed to the wind if that defense comes out connected & locked in, so it could all be for naught. I RARELY find myself in the business of stepping in front of Kelvin Sampson, but this does feel like the single best offense left in the tourney to matchup against that vaunted Houston defensive pressure. One last thing. Yes, Torvik's 'close games' stat can be used as a way to identify late game luck/variance for SOME teams. But when programs consistently win a high % of close games, that is something I tend to buy. Prior to this year, Houston was 21-10 S/U in games decided by 2 possessions or less. This year, what's been our worry with Houston? Amongst other nitpicky stuff is the fact that this is the youngest Cougs team under Sampson I can remember in a while. Houston this year is 3-4 in close games. While obviously a small sample, I also think there is something to Houston being slightly less bulletproof in close games this year. Looking at betting: >Illinois +points at better number later in week. Points will be worth a lot in this low possession game >Mirk assists over (likely have to wait til day of) >Flemings o17.5 points (think alts somewhat in play as well). Wish there was a littleee better scoring floor from the FT line, but Illinois just doesn't foul so you'll need him to get hot on tough shots & likely against Boswell. Not my favorite but his pull-up game is definitely Houston's best path to offense >Tomi/Mirk over 3Pointers, probably Sharp as well >Initially thought about an 'efficiency-based' over as both offenses can take advantage of the types of shots the other defenses allow. I'm also not really a totals guy fwiw and if there isn't good shotmaking in this one, we could be staring at a 64-62 game in the low 60's possessions so I'll probably pass on that

@johnnyvegasss @Walladonk You can make orders or take orders. Taking orders has higher fees around 3.5%. Making orders is where u can get partially filled. I think benefits to kalshi are the 3k annual income deduction if u lose and the 3% interest u gain holding funds in there (if u bet on futures)

@Walladonk Oh I like that. My concern is say I out 5k on a play, does it get partially filled like a stock order if say someone only takes 2k of that bet?

Can anyone tell me about Kalshi? I signed up and linked my bank account. Says transfers are 3-5 days? Or is that just the 1st one. Benefits over regular books ? Would love some info.

@BookitWithTrent Taking Puka anytime TD is betting against the NFL + Jews. Don’t bet against them

so no one thinks the rams win tonight? ✍️

@TheDegenWeekly Doing way too much. You’re taking a chance that a pregame dog gets a lead for you to arb out. That’s gambling like it is in any other form. Instead you’re paying juice twice now on $25 bets. Guaranteed 1-2 dogs get blown out off rip never getting a lead. Line shop and let it ride

Arb Day 2. Waiting for all these dogs to take a commanding lead and snipe the favorites at a + price.

@DeRosa_Antonino @Bookiesbff00 @BigBuckHunterrr Cuz they were put on blast bro and the word spread quickly, that’s the only reason they addressed it

@Bookiesbff00 @BigBuckHunterrr that their willing to tell us exactly what the issue was , and they openly told you how they decided to delete bets. which other book would give you the time of day to even say stuff like that?

gm

All glory to the man above, thank you GOD🙏🙏 $100 PARLAY TURNED TO $20,000🔥🙏💰‼️ Giving away $250 to 4 people who LIKE/RT AND COMMENT💰🔥🔨‼️ LINK BELOW TO JOIN THE WINNING TEAM AND DM ME FOR EXCLUSIVE PARLAY GROUP🔽🙏‼️ Tails.Bet/winners-group

@up2uNY @SuperrNova38 Lol exactly the whole point is to put the minimum $5 bet and take a longshot

Patriots D/ST King Of The Endzone bet. 94 yards should do it right?

@JR_Hoops_ Of course the goofy waits to tweet up 7-0. Enjoy sweating lmao

In what world is Bill losing his college debut

@judgesmails35 @TheDegenWeekly @BlankenshipKobe @BillionsJack @CaptainAbdi19 Read TCU opened +1.5 when in May when they were expected to not have their top RB and WR. In June it moved to TCU -2.5, been getting hit since. I think TCU has the mismatches and books are begging for UNC money. Feel like gambling twitter has a big win cuz they see thru beli BS

North Carolina opened -1.5 tonight. They are now a +3.5 underdog at home. Are we all fading Belicheck or is there some other “edge” I don’t know about?

@KronosPicks What book is this prop on?

@reiwelldel @Sweeegu @GolemDePrague @ChampRDS Bruh u blindly following the “actual smart people” because they “know the fight game” is precisely what makes you, dumb. These people are shills for the bookies. Idk how you can bet against these Russian/dagestani/chechen type fighters

@Sweeegu @GolemDePrague @ChampRDS Um because unlike you these are actual smart people who know the fight game. Most people are dumb and most people think Chimaev wins, which is why my odds maker is 3:1 for Chimaev to win. Talk is cheap, look where people put their money on.

Sean Strickland predicts Dricus du Plessis will 'break' Khamzat Chimaev in Round 5 "Chimaev is a weak man... the guy retired during Covid. I was the one that retired him, it happened in our gym... You could remove my lung, I'm gonna stay in there and fight. Ali had to call you and drag you back into the sport. You're always on the cusp of wanting to leave and get out of it... I just think Dricus is gonna f***ing break him. I don't think Chimaev has the heart to fight a bigger, better man." 🎥 @SStricklandMMA #UFC319

@Ballots4Revolts @MIZManiac @yElff_ @seanperrywins @jwlucasx702 What are u reading bro 90% of comments are calling this beef scripted and predictable. Nobody thinks this is real

This 𝑪𝑶𝑹𝑵𝒀 𝑳𝑰𝑻𝑻𝑳𝑬 𝑩𝑰𝑻𝑪𝑯 @seanperrywins can’t keep my name out of his mouth for some reason. He grew up so rich he thinks he’s untouchable 💀 I do not tolerate any disrespect @seanperrywins you keep calling me “littleboy” and “clown” you and I can step into the ring I’ll gladly handle you

@bp_wg21 @winnersgroup100 Can you DM me bro

🚨 MARCH MADNESS $100 GIVEAWAY 🚨 Waking up the opening Thursday of March Madness is basically Christmas morning, so let's give some cash away. RULES 1. Must RT this tweet 2. Must be following me Florida is popular now, but I've been backing them since they were 40-1 to win it all. If the Gators win the Natty I'll send someone $100. Good luck and CHOMP CHOMP!

@JVPlaysLS @10inchtomfn Bruh how tf was this an EV play its also at -150 now

Taking Lakers -6.5 at -154! Play from @10inchtomfn

@EVbetsKS Eagles sznnn 🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅

@drebustdown Sup dre

The Bills have better odds to win the AFC & the SB than the Chiefs, yet have worse odds to get the one seed. Josh Allen is 5-5 in the playoffs (0-3 vs the Chiefs) while Mahomes is 15-3. Make it make sense. I cannot believe everyone is making the same mistake once again.

@EVbetsKS @VixPixSports I mean u have the answer to your own question. Chiefs next 3 games are all playing good defenses and Mahomes has injury status. So either 1) Chiefs lose 2 upcoming games giving Bills the Bye. Or 2) chiefs are so fraudulent that even having the Bye won’t save them.

Again, not sure you are understanding the post. I am confused how Vegas (and bettors) believe that the Bills are not only better than the Chiefs. But they are so much better that the Chiefs can have the BYE and still they have better odds of winning the AFC. I think that's ridiculous af.

@VixPixSports @EVbetsKS Everyone & their mom & dog has the chiefs. Based on what KS is saying, it makes no sense to fade Chiefs. Youre braindead if you fade Mahomes based on their past playoff success. Yet Vegas has Chiefs in 4th place for SB odds. They showed their hand. It’s obvious chiefs not winning

@drebustdown @EVbetsKS Also, if the chiefs don’t get the bye it’s hard for me to believe he’ll be singing a different tune lol, It’ll be “keep counting out Mahomes see what happens😤”

@EVbetsKS @VixPixSports Wow right so there’s a secret hack to becoming a billionaire in 2024. Since 1) chiefs have the Bye and 2) Mahomes plays for the chiefs and 3) chiefs are going for the 3peat - let’s all put our houses on Chiefs SB. Doesn’t matter what Vegas thinks, Vegas doesn’t know shit!

@VixPixSports @drebustdown The Chiefs were 9-5 thru 14 games with zero chance at the BYE. I think you have completely lost sight of the argument if you can't understand that having a BYE is pretty critical to postseason success. But I'm sure you KNEW the Chiefs were gonna do well last postseason also lol

@EVbetsKS @VixPixSports Dude u of all should know that past performances do not dictate future results. You’re using regular szn records and past playoff records for ur argument. These aren’t best of 7 games like MLB/NBA. It’s a 1-off playoff game. None of that means anything. Chiefs are fraudulent

@VixPixSports @drebustdown And they did last year at this point, Vic?